Monsoon Activity: Northern Then Western India On July 7

JUNE 30, 2016

The recent monsoon wave that affected western India turned out to be weak and short. There were a few showers in north Gujarat and Saurashtra. Kutch and Sindh were left mainly dry. The wave petered out too quickly.

GFS forecast maps for South Asia

Now we look forward to the next rain system that will affect western India. That will come on July 7, 2016, via Madhya Pradesh. Forecast models predict very heavy rains in entire Gujarat beginning July 7. It will drench the state for 3-4 days. Even Sindh will receive heavy rains around July 9. Ths system will be a deluge maker unlike the recently deceased weak system.

Meanwhile monsoon will become active in central and northern India with the onset of July. Very heavy rains are likely in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh around July 3-4, 2016.  I guess monsoons will reach Delhi with the current expected wave by July 5.

One worrying aspect of this monsoon is that it has been lukewarm. Even in areas where it has rained the amount has been little. Flooding rains have not occurred anywhere. Though El Niño is no more, La Niña is not ascending quickly enough. The CFS, Climate Forecast System, predicts very poor below average rainfall through out India in the second half of July. Hope my apprehensions are proved wrong.

JULY 1: 2016 UPDATE 

The system to watch now is the low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal presently off the Odisha coast. Now this low/upper air cyclonic circulation is going to meander around half India in the next 7 days bringing heavy rains wherever it goes.

It will go to West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and end up in Gujarat on July 7-8. A very twisted track for a rain system. Just like the twisted unpredictable monsoon 2016.

Make no mistake. This system may bring flooding rains to Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch and coastal Sindh around July 6-7-8.

American NMME Model Forecast: Deluge During India Monsoon 2016

JUNE 8, 2016

The latest monsoon forecast for India in 2016 by the American multi model NMME predicts a bumper rainy season for the country. Only some eastern states may face deficient rainfall. Also, contrary to average years, the monsoon will extend till October this year.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

The model says most parts of the country will have above average precipitation. The excess ranging from 5 mm to 100 mm per month from July to October. The lightest green color denotes an excess of 5mm. The darkest green color in the forecast maps below equals 100mm above the average rainfall.

A brief glance at the monthly forecast maps below shows bad news is reserved for Odisha. It will have below average rains in July, August and September. Parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chattisgarh may remain relatively dry in July. The dry areas expand to West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh in August.

The north, west and south of the country will face a deluge from July to October in 2016. The wettest states this monsoon are going to be Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and eastern Rajasthan.

A notable point of the forecast is that it expects rains even in October. Normally monsoon withdraws from most parts of India in September.

Talking of other countries of South Asia, Pakistan will have a good time July through September. The country has been facing poor monsoons since last few years. The NMME has good news for the country. An inch or two more than the normal average rainfall for each of the monsoon months.

Bangladesh will have a drier August and September.

Surprisingly, countries in the Middle East will have above average rainfall July to September. We talk especially of Oman and the UAE. Parts of Oman will receive rains even in October.

Latest Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast: Good Rains In West, South India, Oman, UAE

JUNE 1, 2016

The June 1, that is the latest monsoon forecast by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's CANSIPS climate model for India, South Asia and Middle East in 2106 is out.

The monthly forecasts for 2016 is given in the maps below. Green color denotes above average rainfall. Orange equals below average. White colour in the map means normal rains. 

It has good news for western and southern India. Rajasthan, Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra are in for bountiful rainfall with average or above average precipitation in June-September. Rains in Karnataka will be good except for a lean patch in June.

The bad news is for central and eastern states of India. Odisha will be worst hit with deficient rains in all the monsoon months. All the eastern states, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh can expect abysmal rains. July and September will be especially poor.

Turning to Pakistan, it will receive very good rains in all the monsoon months.

Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016. 

Bangladesh except for a surfeit in July will have below average rains this year. Myanmar will see very dry July and September.

Forecast for June: Very dry Odisha and Konkan.

July forecast: Handsome rains in Gujarat and four southern states

August forecast: Gujarat and Andhra score high rain scores

September forecast: Very wet Gujarat, Kerala, Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Andhra. Dry Odisha and West Bengal.

Latest NMME Indian Monsoon 2016 Forecast: Bad News For Eastern India

MAY 7, 2016

The May forecast by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) model for Indian monsoon 2016 is out. This model is run by NOAA's CPC, Climate Prediction Center, a highly respected and reliable climate forecast agency of the United States.

We had given it's April prediction a month ago. Examining both the older and latest data, one finds the basic forecast outlook for India, South Asia and the Middle East basically the same.

Mostly bright. Very good above average rainfall is expected all over India, except for some eastern states. The month of June is good for all the parts of the country. But the bad times are expected to start from July-September for the states of Odisha, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and northern Andhra. Below average precipitation there.

Western states are in for bountiful rains. Especially Gujarat and Maharashtra. June-September 2016.

Good rains are expected in Pakistan June-September this year. Myanmar is in for a dry spell relative to its average precipitation during the SW Monsoon months.

Surprisingly, Oman, the United Arabian Emirates and parts of Saudi Arabia are in for above average rainfall July-September.

Please note that the green colour in the forecast maps denote above average rainfall. Orange equals deficient precipitation.

RELATED
NOAA's April Monsoon Forecast

CANSIPS Canadian May Monsoon Forecast 

JUNE 2016: Good rains all over India except some NE states.

JULY 2016: Flooding rains in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala. Deficient in Chattisgarh, Odisha.

AUGUST 2016: Poor rains in Chattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and northern Andhra. Heavy in Gujarat, parts of Rajasthan, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

SEPTEMBER 2016: Very heavy in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and coastal Maharashtra.

Monsoon 2016 Will Be Good In Western India: CANSIPS Latest Forecast

MAY 1, 2016

We have been carrying monsoon 2016 forecasts from American and Canadian sources. The American NMME Model and Canadian CANSIPS forecast model.

The CANSIPS latest data (May 1, 2016) or Indian monsoon this year has just been released.

It has very good news for western and parts of southern India. Very good rains are likely June through September.

But eastern and northeastern India is on for poor below average rains this monsoon.

If this Canadian forecast comes true, it has serious implications for India. Scanty rains in eastern and northeastern India in all the monsoon months is bad news. Moreover Uttar Pradesh may face a dry August-September.

The forecast has good news for Oman, UAE and Pakistan. All these countries will receive above average rains June-September. Bangladesh is in for a poor year rain-wise.

In the maps below green denotes above average rainfall. Orange means below average.

RELATED Monsoon 2016 Forecasts

Canadian CANSIPS (April) Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 April Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction 

JUNE will bring good rains all over India except Odisha, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which will receive average precipitation. Bangladesh and Indian North Eastern are in for scanty rains.

JULY will deluge Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra including Mumbai. India's east and northeast are in for below average rainfall.

AUGUST brings another flooding rains to Gujarat, especially Saurashtra, Karnataka and parts of Andhra. The dry areas will spread to Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER will bring well above average rains in Gujarat, Sindh, northern Oman and parts of Rajasthan. Odisha faces a drought.

XWF Forecast: Canadian Climate Model CANSIPS Predicts Good 2016 Indian Monsoon

April 25, 2016

After the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) and NOAA, the Canadian Climate Model too predicts a bumper South West Monsoon in 2016.

The CANSIPS (Canadian Seasonal and Inter-annual Prediction System) developed by the Canadian met says most parts of India will receive above average rainfall June's-September this year. In fact it foresees good November precipitation too.

Below are maps for the predicted rainfall for India and South Asia for June-September 2016. The green color denotes above average rainfall. The orange color represents below average precipitation.

Western , central, northern and southern India will receive good bountiful rains. Only the eastern states of Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Indian North East is in for scanty rains. This forecast agrees more or less with the NOAA's NMME forecast.

Pakistan and Oman are in for a wet period July-September. Bangladesh and Myanmar will remain relatively dry this monsoon.

Please note that we had earlier predicted that Indian monsoon 2016 would be very wet as El Niño was going to become neutral by June and by September La Niña would be on the ascendancy.

Latest CANSIPS (May 1, 2016) Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

JUNE 2016- Good rains in India's east and western states

JULY 2016 - Heaviest rains in Saurashtra and northern Tamil Nadu. Scanty in eastern states.

AUGUST 2016 - Deluge in Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Deficient in Odisha, Chattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER 2016 - Deluge again in Saurashtra and coastal Maharashtra. A cyclone perhaps? Drought in Odisha.

XWF Prediction: Bumper Indian Monsoon 2016 Rains Predicts US ClimateForecast Agency

April 19, 2016

South Asia and India are in for record monsoon rains in 2016 if the United States NOAA's ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency) NMME forecast model is to be believed.

Roughly put it predicts rains in excess of 10% above normal. Western India will receive the most rains, though the trend will be seen all over the country, except the states of Odisha and West Bengal.

And surprisingly the deluge is expected to continue till November.

Parts of western India including Gujarat will receive rains about 2-4 inches above normal.

Given below are forecast maps for June-November by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It shows the anomalies , that is excess or deficient rains than the average. The blue denotes an excess of more than 100 mm. The green denotes excess from 1-100 mm. The orange colour denotes deficient rainfall. Darker orange means scantier rains.

According to this forecasts even Pakistan and Oman will get above average precipitation in the coming months.

Another surprise from this prediction is that the usually wet Myanmar (Burma) will receive deficient rains this year.

Canadian Forecast Monsoon 2016

El Niño Waning, Indian Monsoon Will Be Good

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

June 2016: Good rains in the four southern states, Bihar and Saurashtra 

July 2016: Rainfall all over India except Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

August 2016: Very good rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal.

September 2016: Deluge in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and Konkan.

October 2016: Good rains in Odisha, Malabar and coastal Karnataka.

November 2016: Surprisingly rains in November all over India except western Rajasthan and Kutch 

XWF Prediction: 2016 Indian Monsoon Will Be Good, El Niño Waning

April 1, 2016

After the erratic rains in 2015 there is good news for India this year. The monsoons are expected to be good. The dreaded El Niño is waning steadily and by June it will become neutral.

And we all know a weak El Niño means bountiful rains in the south west monsoons. It had been positive last year and brought poor precipitation in the Indian sub-continent.

The United States global weather agency, Climate Prediction Center, too predicts above average rainfall in India from June to September. (See rain forecast maps).

Interestingly the CPC forecasts rains in many parts of the country even in May. Pre-monsoon activity will be strong in that month.

Talking of precipitation prospects for the next 10 days, the heaviest falls will occur in Indian north-eastern states, Sri Lanka and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year may adversely affect the South West Monsoon in 2016. (Of course the neutral or negative El Niño will offset this IOD factor this year hence both National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Indian Meteorological Department are forecasting a good monsoon in 2016).

Below are rainfall forecast maps for South Asia starting May through September 2016. The green and blue colours denote above average rain. The yellow and brown show deficient precipitation. The prediction is based on NOAA's Climate Forecast Model (CFS).

Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 Forecast

MAY: Heavy rains in parts of Indian north east. Surprisingly rains through out India barring central and eastern parts.

JUNE: Heaviest precipitation in Madhya Pradesh and Malabar coast.

JULY: Drenching in central and parts of western India.

AUGUST: Above average rains in many parts. Deficient in Andhra.

SEPTEMBER: Above average rains in entire India except western Rajasthan.