Sluggish Monsoon Will Reach Mumbai On June 21-22, 2016

JUNE 16, 2016

The problem with monsoon 2016 is the Arabian Sea branch. It is sluggish, slow and lethargic. On June 8 it mustered its strength and managed to crawl into Kerala, Karnataka. But after that it seems have fainted again. It is yet to enter Goa.

In contrast the Bay of Bengal stream is vigorous. It threw out a tropical cyclone ROANU in May. While its western sibling is dithering, it has entered Indian NE states with a bang. It has reached Bangladesh and in the next 3-4 days it will advance into West Bengal, Odisha, Rayalseema, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. It will push into Vidarbha and Marathwad soon.

All this time the Arabian Sea stream has gone to sleep. No low pressure areas or depressions. Just some miserable showers over Kerala, Karnataka and Goa.

But come June 18 and it will shake off its lethargy. Rains will increase off Kerala, then there will be a deluge over coastal Karnataka, Goa on June 19-20. 

But there is problem here too. The invigorated rain system over Goa will split in two. One wandering off west into the sea. Another slowly advancing into Konkan and Mumbai on June 22.

So do not expect a dramatic deluge in Mumbai with flooding rains on June 22. It will be a sedate affair.

American NMME Model Forecast: Deluge During India Monsoon 2016

JUNE 8, 2016

The latest monsoon forecast for India in 2016 by the American multi model NMME predicts a bumper rainy season for the country. Only some eastern states may face deficient rainfall. Also, contrary to average years, the monsoon will extend till October this year.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

The model says most parts of the country will have above average precipitation. The excess ranging from 5 mm to 100 mm per month from July to October. The lightest green color denotes an excess of 5mm. The darkest green color in the forecast maps below equals 100mm above the average rainfall.

A brief glance at the monthly forecast maps below shows bad news is reserved for Odisha. It will have below average rains in July, August and September. Parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chattisgarh may remain relatively dry in July. The dry areas expand to West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh in August.

The north, west and south of the country will face a deluge from July to October in 2016. The wettest states this monsoon are going to be Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and eastern Rajasthan.

A notable point of the forecast is that it expects rains even in October. Normally monsoon withdraws from most parts of India in September.

Talking of other countries of South Asia, Pakistan will have a good time July through September. The country has been facing poor monsoons since last few years. The NMME has good news for the country. An inch or two more than the normal average rainfall for each of the monsoon months.

Bangladesh will have a drier August and September.

Surprisingly, countries in the Middle East will have above average rainfall July to September. We talk especially of Oman and the UAE. Parts of Oman will receive rains even in October.