Maharashtra, Telangana Wettest This Monsoon?

APRIL 30, 2017

This year the monsoon gods are going to smile broadly at Maharashtra and Telangana if latest data from the CFS (Coupled Forecast System) model is to be believed.

Looking at rainfall anamoly maps for the four monsoon months we see these two states will receive above average precipitation in each of them. 2-4 inches in excess of the monthly average.

The green colour in the maps denotes excess, above average rainfall. The brown color means deficient rainfall.

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In June the Arabian Sea is going to hit the turbo mode, churning out many rain systems. At least one of them is going to hit Oman. Good rains in coastal Pakistan, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh, northern Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala, Bihar and Jharkhand.

In July good rains in coastal Saurashtra, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Telangana, southern Chattisgarh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Odisha and Bengal. The North Eastern states will face a dry spell in July. As will Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalseema.

In August the good times continue in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh. Bengal and Bihar will receive good rains. Below average rains I am afraid in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalseema.

September will see both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal turning active throwing out low pressure systems. As a result we will see good precipitation in almost entire India except for Rajasthan and northern India. Seeing the likelihood of good rains in September we may say the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will nullify any impact of a weak El Niño.

Some Signs That Monsoon 2017 Is Preparing To Come

APRIL 17, 2017, MONDAY

The south west monsoon is still about 40 days away, before it arrives to an eagerly awaited welcome to the Indian subcontinent but we can discern some signs that hint at its arrival.

The first is the strong almost daily thunderstorm activity in the Indian North Eastern states, like Assam, and also in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The daily precipitation in these areas started almost a fortnight ago. A look at accumulated rainfall forecast by the reliable ECMWF model reveals that in the coming days the pre-monsoon activity is going to become very vigorous.(SEE FORECAST MAP). Moreover the thunderstorm activity is becoming vigorousl in south eastern Bay of Bengal from where the monsoon enters each year.

Secondly, the wind direction in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has reversed in the last few weeks as the winter northeast monsoons have long departed. The winds are beginning to blow in Gujarat and parts of Sindh from the Arabian Sea. As strong pre-monsoon winds push up from Somalia.

Similarly in the Bay of Bengal moist winds are moving up north hitting Myanmar, Bangladesh and India's North East bringing pre-monsoon thunderstorms in these areas. The recent tropical cyclone MAARUTHA is going to act as a catalyst speeding up the arrival of the monsoon.

The CFS model has predicted that pre-monsoon activity is going to start in Gujarat, Sindh, Maharashtra and parts of Rajasthan in mid May itself.And that monsoon is going to become vigorous in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from June 1, 2017 itself. Both the seas are going to throw out at least a tropical cyclone/depression/low pressure system each in June. Good rains are expected in Odisha, Gujarat, Sindh and Oman in June.

August 17, 2016: Heavy Rain In Jharkhand As Low Moves In

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area is moving into West Bengal. It will move through Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh, northern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh, south eastern Rajasthan and before it dissipates it will bring showers to Gujarat on Sunday.

Meanwhile the South China Sea low is brewing into a tropical cyclone. It is going to move through Hainan in China, then northern Vietnam. Will be probably be named DIAMMU. It's remnants will reach Indian northeast, Bangladesh on August 20-21.

Heavy rain in parts of northern Madhya Pradesh-western Uttar Pradesh (Agra-Gwalior belt) in next 12 hours, till tonight.

Heavy rains in parts of northeastern Rajasthan (Kota, Sawai Madhopur) till Thursday evening.

Heavy rains in Gangetic West Bengal till today midnight.

Heavy rains in Jharkhand till Thursday afternoon.

Heavy rains in northern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh on Thursday night.

Heavy rains in western Madhya Pradesh and adjoining eastern Rajasthan on Friday.

Related: NOAA RAIN FORECAST AUGUST 17-18

VIDEO: It rained very heavily in Rewa, northeast Madhya Pradesh on August 16, 2016 as we had predicted earlier. (video created by Santosh Upadhyay)

The Canadian CMC forecast model predicts the growing tropical cyclone (DIAMMU) in South China Sea will reach  Gujarat, albeit as a weakened low pressure area.

August 8, 2016, Monday: Indian Monsoon Forecast Update

AUGUST 8, 2016, MONDAY

The cyclonic circulation which is presently hovering above southeastern Rajasthan will bring very heavy rainfall to the region and also parts of North Gujarat in the coming 72 hours.

Meanwhile the cyclonic circulation over Sindh has moved into the Arabian Sea. It will dissipate soon.

The Rajasthan rain system will intensify in the coming 24 hours and will die down on Friday, August 12.

The next major monsoon system to be born will be a low pressure area that will develop off the Odisha coast on August 16, 2016.

A smaller cyclonic circulation will form off the West Bengal coast on Tuesday, August 9.  It will move into Bangladesh, weaken and come over to West Bengal.

Heavy showers in Ahmedabad till Tuesday morning.

Very heavy rains in southern Rajasthan (Sirohi, Barmer, Abu, Udaipur, Mandsaur, Chittaurgarh) parts of north Gujarat (Palanpur, Mehsana), by Tuesday, August 9, morning.

Very heavy rains in Pali, Sirohi, Abu, Jhalor (Rajasthan) on Tuesday night.

Medium to heavy rains to continue in southern Rajasthan till Friday, August 12, morning.

Parts of north Gujarat (Palanpur, Patan, Mehsana) to receive medium to heavy rains till Wednesday morning.

Heavy rains in coastal WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH (Chittagong) till Wednesday morning.

RELATED: NOAA GFS Rain Forecast Maps, August 8, 2016

A cyclonic circulation is forming in the Bay of Bengal close to the West Bengal coast. It will move into Bangladesh and then into West Bengal. The system will bring heavy precipitation in these regions in the next 72 hours.

At 0630 hours today morning heavy rains occurring in Rajasthan. The rains will move to parts of north Gujarat and Kutch in the coming 48 hours.

Gujarat, Sindh Still Waiting For Rains

JULY 27, 2016

Half of the monsoon 2016 season has gone yet Gujarat and Sindh are still waiting for the rain gods. Neighbouring Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan have received good rainfall till now but due to the quirks of nature except for Dang and Amreli districts, Gujarat has been left mainly high and dry.

Looking forward, good rains are expected in central and north Gujarat on July 27-29. There might light showers in the rest of the state.

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"La Nina event, which affects rainfall and temperatures in the tropics, may develop in the third quarter of the year but it is likely to be weak and far less intense than El Nino that ended in May"

--World Meteorological Organisation 

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The next hope is the expected cyclonic circulation that is expected to form over the state around August 3. It will arise in northern Madhya Pradesh on August 2 and then drift over to north Gujarat on August 3. It is likely to hover over the region for days. It may bring good rains to north Gujarat and the parched Kutch region. Even Sindh may receive good precipitation then.

The GFS forecast model is forecasting the formation of a strong low pressure area off the Andhra-Odisha coast on August 6, 2016. It further says the system will cut through Andhra, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat around August 9 bringing heavy rains everywhere.

The European model ECMWF expects the system to form earlier, on August 2, near the Myanmar coast. It says it will then intensify into a depression/deep depression by the time reaches the Odisha coast on August 3-4, and knock on Vidarbha's door by August 6. Powerful system.

Looks like the monsoon is really going to change gears in August. La Niña effect?

But 10 days is a long time in weather forecasting. Let us wait and observe.

UPDATE JULY 28

Hardly 24 hours have passed and the GFS is having doubts about the expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area. Our advice would be take GFS forecasts with a big pinch of salt. The good news is the European model persists with the forecast of an intensification of monsoon activity from August 2. Good rains are expected in dry Kutch-Sindh region around August 4-5.

As the cyclonic circulation gives rain to Kutch on August 4, the much bigger monster system grows in the Bay of Bengal.

GFS believes this system will enter Andhra-Odisha on August 5-6, other models predict an earlier entry

Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Sindh till July 13

JULY 10, 2016

The center of attraction presently is the rain system which is flooding Madhya Pradesh since the last few days. The engine of this rain system is a low pressure area which was born in eastern Uttar Pradesh and is presently hovering above north central Madhya Pradesh.

Though this upper air cyclonic circulation will dissipate in a couple of days, the accompanying rain system will drench northern Maharashtra, central, north Gujarat, parts of southwest Rajasthan, Kutch, Sindh in the coming days.

On Sunday, July 10, the drenching will occur in north Maharashtra. On July 11 the heavy showers will move into central and parts of north Gujarat. On July 12 the action will shift to some parts of southwest Rajasthan and Kutch. Coastal Sindh, including Karachi is in for significant rains on July 13, Wednesday.  

The GFS expects 10-20 inches of rainfall in central Gujarat, 2-5 inches in north Gujarat and Sindh in the coming 3 days.

Saurashtra will be left relatively rainless.

Strange and unpredictable is the monsoon this year with renowned numerical forecast models like the GFS and European ECMWF struggling to give accurate forecasts for even 24 hours.

Meanwhile there is bad news for folks in South Asia and Middle East. The much awaited rain giver La Niña has not yet been born. Though the dreaded El Niño died an unsung end in May 2016, conditions are ENSO neutral presently.  In other words though El Niño is no more, La Niña is yet to rise. The Climate Prediction Center, an US agency says there is a 60% chance of La Niña in July-August-September and 70 % possibility during August-September-October. 

The moment La Niña is born and grows up South Asia is in for torrential rains.

Incidentally I happened to glance at the CFS forecast for South Asia for the months of August and September. I was surprised to see wave after wave of rain systems emerging from the Arabian Sea and hitting western India. 

The CFS week-by-week prediction was disappointing. It expects rains in Gujarat till July 15. After that all of India is in for below average precipitation till August 7, except for Bihar, Bangladesh, parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

LATEST NMME FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Below is the rain forecast (above, below average) for South Asia by the NMME, The North American Multi-Model Ensemble model. It reiterates below average (orange) rainfall in parts of central and eastern India.

CFS FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Meanwhile the Climate Forecast System, CFS, paints a gloomier picture. It says only the southern states of India and Bangladesh will receive good monsoon rains in August. For the rest of India it is orange, orange. Below normal precipitation.

Sluggish Monsoon Will Reach Mumbai On June 21-22, 2016

JUNE 16, 2016

The problem with monsoon 2016 is the Arabian Sea branch. It is sluggish, slow and lethargic. On June 8 it mustered its strength and managed to crawl into Kerala, Karnataka. But after that it seems have fainted again. It is yet to enter Goa.

In contrast the Bay of Bengal stream is vigorous. It threw out a tropical cyclone ROANU in May. While its western sibling is dithering, it has entered Indian NE states with a bang. It has reached Bangladesh and in the next 3-4 days it will advance into West Bengal, Odisha, Rayalseema, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. It will push into Vidarbha and Marathwad soon.

All this time the Arabian Sea stream has gone to sleep. No low pressure areas or depressions. Just some miserable showers over Kerala, Karnataka and Goa.

But come June 18 and it will shake off its lethargy. Rains will increase off Kerala, then there will be a deluge over coastal Karnataka, Goa on June 19-20. 

But there is problem here too. The invigorated rain system over Goa will split in two. One wandering off west into the sea. Another slowly advancing into Konkan and Mumbai on June 22.

So do not expect a dramatic deluge in Mumbai with flooding rains on June 22. It will be a sedate affair.

American NMME Model Forecast: Deluge During India Monsoon 2016

JUNE 8, 2016

The latest monsoon forecast for India in 2016 by the American multi model NMME predicts a bumper rainy season for the country. Only some eastern states may face deficient rainfall. Also, contrary to average years, the monsoon will extend till October this year.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

The model says most parts of the country will have above average precipitation. The excess ranging from 5 mm to 100 mm per month from July to October. The lightest green color denotes an excess of 5mm. The darkest green color in the forecast maps below equals 100mm above the average rainfall.

A brief glance at the monthly forecast maps below shows bad news is reserved for Odisha. It will have below average rains in July, August and September. Parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chattisgarh may remain relatively dry in July. The dry areas expand to West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh in August.

The north, west and south of the country will face a deluge from July to October in 2016. The wettest states this monsoon are going to be Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and eastern Rajasthan.

A notable point of the forecast is that it expects rains even in October. Normally monsoon withdraws from most parts of India in September.

Talking of other countries of South Asia, Pakistan will have a good time July through September. The country has been facing poor monsoons since last few years. The NMME has good news for the country. An inch or two more than the normal average rainfall for each of the monsoon months.

Bangladesh will have a drier August and September.

Surprisingly, countries in the Middle East will have above average rainfall July to September. We talk especially of Oman and the UAE. Parts of Oman will receive rains even in October.

Weak Monsoon For Days To Come?

MAY 7, 2016

Monsoon activity is going to be weak on the Arabian Sea side in the near future. The rains will get stuck in Goa and northern Karnataka for another 10 days even though it is expected to rain heavily in these areas in the next few days owing to a cyclonic circulation. So when will it reach Mumbai? Hard to say now but NOAA's model says on June 18.

The model further says it will reach Gujarat around June 21. It expects the monsoon to have spread to eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat by June 22. But one takes that with a pinch of salt as the model has been making wild predictions in the past week.

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Interesting sidelight: There is a 30-40% possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea till June 15. There is a similar chance in the Bay of Bengal from June 6-10

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The silver lining in the gloomy scenario is that the Bay of Bengal stream is going to rejuvenate soon. With the cyclonic circulation over Andhra Pradesh intensifying into a low and hitting Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 11-12 and then drenching the northeastern states of India.

This low pressure area/depression is going to pull in the monsoon into eastern India.

Some forecast models suggest the Arabian Sea stream will snap out of its Rip Van Winkle sleep around June 18 and monsoon will lash Mumbai and Gujarat thereafter.

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Good news is that the Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO, enters the Indian Ocean on June 12 and is expected to stay for next few weeks. As a result the monsoon will really intensify. A booster dose, so to speak.

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Image credit: Rediff

Meanwhile the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology  (IITM), Pune, India,  have given the following rain forecast maps based on multi-model ensemble (MME) till June 25, 2016. The first set shows the expected rainfall in mm/day. The second set shows the forecast anomaly, that is whether below average or above average.

Not a very happy picture. Though rains will spread throughout India (except western Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab) by June 25, they will be meagre except in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Indian west coast and north east states.

The rainfall anomaly forecast map shows below average rains in most of the areas till June 20 (except the ubiquitous north eastern states). Good rains also in coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat from June 11-15 (A low pressure area?). Things get better during June 21-25 period with western Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal showing above average rains. The White color denotes normal average precipitation.

European Forecast Model Hints At Heavy Rains In Andhra On June 8

JUNE 1, 2016

While the American GFS predicts heavy rains in Mumbai, Gujarat around June 10, 2016, the European ECMWF model is betting on Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on June 7-8.

It expects a low pressure area to develop on the Andhra coast on June 7, which will bring heavy precipitation to Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal.

Leading forecast models are thus disagreeing where the monsoons will change gears: West coast or east coast of India.

Keep in touch for updates.

Monsoons Will Arrive In Mumbai, Gujarat By June 12, 2016

Image credit: Deccan Chronicle 

MAY 30, 2016

The South West Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10, 2016. With a bang. With flooding rains.

Konkan coast, Mumbai city, South Gujarat and Saurashtra will receive very heavy rainfall from June 10 onwards.

This will be possible because of an off shore trough that will form in the Arabian Sea off the western coast of India in the first week of June.

There will be very good precipitation in southeastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh on June 13-14 as the low will move over these regions. It could even reach Delhi by June 14-15, bringing heavy showers in the capital.

Mumbai and Maharashtra along with northern Karnataka will receive good pre-monsoon showers between June 4-6.

Lately there have been apprehensions about monsoon 2016 after the Indian Meteorological Department said that the onset in Kerala could be delayed. The searing heat waves in the country along with drought like conditions has most people yearning for the rain gods.

Most climate forecast models and the IMD have predicted a good monsoon this year.

The present tardiness on the part of monsoons is because of the lingering after effects of the now deceased El Niño. Absence of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole has made things worse.

But as La Niña regenerates by July, the rainfall outlook for India will dramatically improve. Experts are warning of flooding rains in July-October as La Niña goes on the rampage.

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• Heavy Rains Possible In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016
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XWF Forecast: Canadian Climate Model CANSIPS Predicts Good 2016 Indian Monsoon

April 25, 2016

After the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) and NOAA, the Canadian Climate Model too predicts a bumper South West Monsoon in 2016.

The CANSIPS (Canadian Seasonal and Inter-annual Prediction System) developed by the Canadian met says most parts of India will receive above average rainfall June's-September this year. In fact it foresees good November precipitation too.

Below are maps for the predicted rainfall for India and South Asia for June-September 2016. The green color denotes above average rainfall. The orange color represents below average precipitation.

Western , central, northern and southern India will receive good bountiful rains. Only the eastern states of Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Indian North East is in for scanty rains. This forecast agrees more or less with the NOAA's NMME forecast.

Pakistan and Oman are in for a wet period July-September. Bangladesh and Myanmar will remain relatively dry this monsoon.

Please note that we had earlier predicted that Indian monsoon 2016 would be very wet as El Niño was going to become neutral by June and by September La Niña would be on the ascendancy.

Latest CANSIPS (May 1, 2016) Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

JUNE 2016- Good rains in India's east and western states

JULY 2016 - Heaviest rains in Saurashtra and northern Tamil Nadu. Scanty in eastern states.

AUGUST 2016 - Deluge in Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Deficient in Odisha, Chattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER 2016 - Deluge again in Saurashtra and coastal Maharashtra. A cyclone perhaps? Drought in Odisha.

Monsoon Forecast: Heavy Rains Expected In Bengal, Bihar Till June 27, 2015

The low pressure area which is presently over Bangladesh will move through West Bengal and Bihar by June 27, 2015 bringing heavy rains to these states.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Bangladesh today. The rains will shift to north Bengal and then onto Bihar by tomorrow.

Very heavy rains are expected in sub Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar in the next 48 hours.

One fears of flooding in Bihar by Sunday.

The rains will ease by Monday as the low will dissipate by then.. There may be rainfall in eastern Uttar Pradesh too in the next 48 hours.

The latest (0430 hours GMT, June 26, 2015) rainfall satellite image shows rains in North Bengal presently.