Monsoon 2016 Will Be Good In Western India: CANSIPS Latest Forecast

MAY 1, 2016

We have been carrying monsoon 2016 forecasts from American and Canadian sources. The American NMME Model and Canadian CANSIPS forecast model.

The CANSIPS latest data (May 1, 2016) or Indian monsoon this year has just been released.

It has very good news for western and parts of southern India. Very good rains are likely June through September.

But eastern and northeastern India is on for poor below average rains this monsoon.

If this Canadian forecast comes true, it has serious implications for India. Scanty rains in eastern and northeastern India in all the monsoon months is bad news. Moreover Uttar Pradesh may face a dry August-September.

The forecast has good news for Oman, UAE and Pakistan. All these countries will receive above average rains June-September. Bangladesh is in for a poor year rain-wise.

In the maps below green denotes above average rainfall. Orange means below average.

RELATED Monsoon 2016 Forecasts

Canadian CANSIPS (April) Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 April Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction 

JUNE will bring good rains all over India except Odisha, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which will receive average precipitation. Bangladesh and Indian North Eastern are in for scanty rains.

JULY will deluge Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra including Mumbai. India's east and northeast are in for below average rainfall.

AUGUST brings another flooding rains to Gujarat, especially Saurashtra, Karnataka and parts of Andhra. The dry areas will spread to Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER will bring well above average rains in Gujarat, Sindh, northern Oman and parts of Rajasthan. Odisha faces a drought.

XWF Forecast: Canadian Climate Model CANSIPS Predicts Good 2016 Indian Monsoon

April 25, 2016

After the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) and NOAA, the Canadian Climate Model too predicts a bumper South West Monsoon in 2016.

The CANSIPS (Canadian Seasonal and Inter-annual Prediction System) developed by the Canadian met says most parts of India will receive above average rainfall June's-September this year. In fact it foresees good November precipitation too.

Below are maps for the predicted rainfall for India and South Asia for June-September 2016. The green color denotes above average rainfall. The orange color represents below average precipitation.

Western , central, northern and southern India will receive good bountiful rains. Only the eastern states of Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Indian North East is in for scanty rains. This forecast agrees more or less with the NOAA's NMME forecast.

Pakistan and Oman are in for a wet period July-September. Bangladesh and Myanmar will remain relatively dry this monsoon.

Please note that we had earlier predicted that Indian monsoon 2016 would be very wet as El Niño was going to become neutral by June and by September La Niña would be on the ascendancy.

Latest CANSIPS (May 1, 2016) Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

JUNE 2016- Good rains in India's east and western states

JULY 2016 - Heaviest rains in Saurashtra and northern Tamil Nadu. Scanty in eastern states.

AUGUST 2016 - Deluge in Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Deficient in Odisha, Chattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER 2016 - Deluge again in Saurashtra and coastal Maharashtra. A cyclone perhaps? Drought in Odisha.