Some Signs That Monsoon 2017 Is Preparing To Come

APRIL 17, 2017, MONDAY

The south west monsoon is still about 40 days away, before it arrives to an eagerly awaited welcome to the Indian subcontinent but we can discern some signs that hint at its arrival.

The first is the strong almost daily thunderstorm activity in the Indian North Eastern states, like Assam, and also in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The daily precipitation in these areas started almost a fortnight ago. A look at accumulated rainfall forecast by the reliable ECMWF model reveals that in the coming days the pre-monsoon activity is going to become very vigorous.(SEE FORECAST MAP). Moreover the thunderstorm activity is becoming vigorousl in south eastern Bay of Bengal from where the monsoon enters each year.

Secondly, the wind direction in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has reversed in the last few weeks as the winter northeast monsoons have long departed. The winds are beginning to blow in Gujarat and parts of Sindh from the Arabian Sea. As strong pre-monsoon winds push up from Somalia.

Similarly in the Bay of Bengal moist winds are moving up north hitting Myanmar, Bangladesh and India's North East bringing pre-monsoon thunderstorms in these areas. The recent tropical cyclone MAARUTHA is going to act as a catalyst speeding up the arrival of the monsoon.

The CFS model has predicted that pre-monsoon activity is going to start in Gujarat, Sindh, Maharashtra and parts of Rajasthan in mid May itself.And that monsoon is going to become vigorous in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from June 1, 2017 itself. Both the seas are going to throw out at least a tropical cyclone/depression/low pressure system each in June. Good rains are expected in Odisha, Gujarat, Sindh and Oman in June.

Latest Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast: Good Rains In West, South India, Oman, UAE

JUNE 1, 2016

The June 1, that is the latest monsoon forecast by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's CANSIPS climate model for India, South Asia and Middle East in 2106 is out.

The monthly forecasts for 2016 is given in the maps below. Green color denotes above average rainfall. Orange equals below average. White colour in the map means normal rains. 

It has good news for western and southern India. Rajasthan, Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra are in for bountiful rainfall with average or above average precipitation in June-September. Rains in Karnataka will be good except for a lean patch in June.

The bad news is for central and eastern states of India. Odisha will be worst hit with deficient rains in all the monsoon months. All the eastern states, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh can expect abysmal rains. July and September will be especially poor.

Turning to Pakistan, it will receive very good rains in all the monsoon months.

Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016. 

Bangladesh except for a surfeit in July will have below average rains this year. Myanmar will see very dry July and September.

Forecast for June: Very dry Odisha and Konkan.

July forecast: Handsome rains in Gujarat and four southern states

August forecast: Gujarat and Andhra score high rain scores

September forecast: Very wet Gujarat, Kerala, Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Andhra. Dry Odisha and West Bengal.

Arabian Sea Depression: Heavy Rains In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

JUNE 1, 2016

A deep depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea around June 9, 2016, which will bring a deluge to coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Gujarat.

Monsoon will become very active on the Arabian Sea coast of India from June 6. Increased rainfall will be seen in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from June 6.

Mumbai will receive very heavy rains on June 8-9.

This will culminate in the formation of a tropical depression on June 9 off the Mumbai coast south of Saurashtra.

This system is expected to move into Saurashtra and Kutch regions bringing flooding rains till June 12-13. Coastal Sindh too might receive considerable precipitation.

The system may then swing back into the Arabian Sea, weaken and drift towards Oman. Oman may receive isolated showers by June 16.

The vigorous monsoon activity in the coming fortnight may bring phenomenal amounts of rain on India 's west coast. The forecast map indicates these areas will get accumulated rains of 25 inches in the coming 15 days.

Monsoons Will Arrive In Mumbai, Gujarat By June 12, 2016

Image credit: Deccan Chronicle 

MAY 30, 2016

The South West Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10, 2016. With a bang. With flooding rains.

Konkan coast, Mumbai city, South Gujarat and Saurashtra will receive very heavy rainfall from June 10 onwards.

This will be possible because of an off shore trough that will form in the Arabian Sea off the western coast of India in the first week of June.

There will be very good precipitation in southeastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh on June 13-14 as the low will move over these regions. It could even reach Delhi by June 14-15, bringing heavy showers in the capital.

Mumbai and Maharashtra along with northern Karnataka will receive good pre-monsoon showers between June 4-6.

Lately there have been apprehensions about monsoon 2016 after the Indian Meteorological Department said that the onset in Kerala could be delayed. The searing heat waves in the country along with drought like conditions has most people yearning for the rain gods.

Most climate forecast models and the IMD have predicted a good monsoon this year.

The present tardiness on the part of monsoons is because of the lingering after effects of the now deceased El Niño. Absence of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole has made things worse.

But as La Niña regenerates by July, the rainfall outlook for India will dramatically improve. Experts are warning of flooding rains in July-October as La Niña goes on the rampage.

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Indian Monsoon Rains To Be Subdued Till June 15, 2016

MAY 29, 2016

Top medium range forecaster, IITM, Pune, (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) says in its latest analysis that Indian monsoon rainfall activity will remain below normal in the next 20 days.

It also rules out any real possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal in the same period. But it does say there is a good chance of a typhoon in the South China Sea in the coming days.

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Indian Monsoon 2016 To Rev Up In Early June

MAY 28, 2016

Mumbai will receive upto 4-5 inches of rain by June 12, 2016. Hardly a sign of a delayed weak monsoon. Though the Indian Meteorological Department has warned that the onset over Kerala might be delayed, global forecast models say though monsoon activity may be subdued in the last days of May, things will begin to change by June 5.

Monsoon will gather momentum as it will clamber up the Indian west coast. Mumbai will receive its first heavy showers around June 10, 2016.

By that time rainfall will intensify over the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, southern Maharashtra and Telangana. 

Gujarat will start receiving increased pre-monsoon showers. As will Madhya Pradesh. In fact looking at the rain forecast map below only Rajasthan will remain dry by June 13, 2016.

One can say that rainfall activity is going to accelerate in the second week of June.

The rain forecast map above shows the total precipitation from now till June 13, 2016. The figures are in inches.

Above map shows the average monsoon rainfall received by different regions of India.

Above map shows the progress of monsoon 2016 till May 27.

Monsoon 2016 Will Be Good In Western India: CANSIPS Latest Forecast

MAY 1, 2016

We have been carrying monsoon 2016 forecasts from American and Canadian sources. The American NMME Model and Canadian CANSIPS forecast model.

The CANSIPS latest data (May 1, 2016) or Indian monsoon this year has just been released.

It has very good news for western and parts of southern India. Very good rains are likely June through September.

But eastern and northeastern India is on for poor below average rains this monsoon.

If this Canadian forecast comes true, it has serious implications for India. Scanty rains in eastern and northeastern India in all the monsoon months is bad news. Moreover Uttar Pradesh may face a dry August-September.

The forecast has good news for Oman, UAE and Pakistan. All these countries will receive above average rains June-September. Bangladesh is in for a poor year rain-wise.

In the maps below green denotes above average rainfall. Orange means below average.

RELATED Monsoon 2016 Forecasts

Canadian CANSIPS (April) Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 April Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction 

JUNE will bring good rains all over India except Odisha, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which will receive average precipitation. Bangladesh and Indian North Eastern are in for scanty rains.

JULY will deluge Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra including Mumbai. India's east and northeast are in for below average rainfall.

AUGUST brings another flooding rains to Gujarat, especially Saurashtra, Karnataka and parts of Andhra. The dry areas will spread to Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER will bring well above average rains in Gujarat, Sindh, northern Oman and parts of Rajasthan. Odisha faces a drought.

XWF Prediction: Bumper Indian Monsoon 2016 Rains Predicts US ClimateForecast Agency

April 19, 2016

South Asia and India are in for record monsoon rains in 2016 if the United States NOAA's ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency) NMME forecast model is to be believed.

Roughly put it predicts rains in excess of 10% above normal. Western India will receive the most rains, though the trend will be seen all over the country, except the states of Odisha and West Bengal.

And surprisingly the deluge is expected to continue till November.

Parts of western India including Gujarat will receive rains about 2-4 inches above normal.

Given below are forecast maps for June-November by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It shows the anomalies , that is excess or deficient rains than the average. The blue denotes an excess of more than 100 mm. The green denotes excess from 1-100 mm. The orange colour denotes deficient rainfall. Darker orange means scantier rains.

According to this forecasts even Pakistan and Oman will get above average precipitation in the coming months.

Another surprise from this prediction is that the usually wet Myanmar (Burma) will receive deficient rains this year.

Canadian Forecast Monsoon 2016

El Niño Waning, Indian Monsoon Will Be Good

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

June 2016: Good rains in the four southern states, Bihar and Saurashtra 

July 2016: Rainfall all over India except Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

August 2016: Very good rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal.

September 2016: Deluge in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and Konkan.

October 2016: Good rains in Odisha, Malabar and coastal Karnataka.

November 2016: Surprisingly rains in November all over India except western Rajasthan and Kutch