Monsoon To Intensify From June 18, 2016

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JUNE 13, 2016

Monsoon has been quite dormant after the push into Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh a few days back. Nothing dramatic is expected in the next 2-3 days except that it may move into Goa and some parts of North East India. Even the Goa part seems doubtful at present.

The Center of attraction is the Indian north east. Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland. It is going to rain cats and dogs here for at least the next three days. I guess it is monsoon entering in the area.

But from June 18, things are going to change elsewhere too. It will because of two circulations. One off Goa in the Arabian Sea. The second in the Bay of Bengal at the Andhra Pradesh coast.

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The monsoon will get very vigorous over Goa and northern Karnataka from June 18-19. Very heavy precipitation is expected in these regions. The rains will then move into the rest of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and parts of Maharashtra.

After that it is possible the monsoon may enter Mumbai, touch Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

There is a strong possibility of a low pressure area developing near the Goa coast on June 18-19. This system will have a lot of rain to throw. But present indications are that instead of moving north to Mumbai it will wander off in the sea. Where it goes is to be seen. Gujarat? Pakistan? Or head west towards Oman?

Another Little Storm COLIN, Will Hit USA, Florida This Time

JUNE 6, 2016

Menacing clouds gather over Florida as Colin approaches. (Image credit:ABC)

After Bonnie, another tropical storm will drench the US east coast. Tropical storm Colin has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and it threatens Florida in next 20 hours.

This storm is small. It's central minimum pressure is 1008. Though by the time it hits the Florida coast by 0000 hours GMT Tuesday it will have dropped to 998 hPa.

The National Hurricane Center estimates its winds to be 65 km/h. By landfall it might rise to 70-80 km/h.

Colin is going to bring heavy rains to Florida. Significant precipitation is also expected in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina under the influence of this storm.

Colin is going to be fast moving. By Wednesday it will be in the Atlantic Ocean. It will then turn into a mid latitude tropical cyclone as it moves away into the ocean.

Monsoon to be active soon

Tropical storm Colin will bring heaviest rainfall to northern Florida.

Heavy Rains Likely In Andhra, Telangana, Rayalseema In Coming Days

JUNE 3, 2016

As the monsoons are expected to hit Kerala in the next few days, the engine that will pull the rains into southern and eastern India is an upper air cyclonic circulation that will move over Andhra Pradesh on June 4, 2016.

The system will form over the state tomorrow, then  meander over Telangana, Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh till June 8-9. It will then move back over Visakhapatnam area and intensify.

It is expected to move back into the Bay of Bengal on June 11. It may slam into the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 12-13 after intensifying into a depression. Maybe even a tropical cyclone.

The south west monsoon will take awhile to reach western India. In the absence of any low/cyclonic circulations things will be relatively quieter on the western coast of India. Though rainfall activity will rise gradually. Indications are things will get hot, rather wet, around June 10 as a massive cluster of thunderstorms will form in the Arabian Sea off Konkan coast.

The satellite image shows the emerging circulation over Andhra Pradesh 

Arabian Sea Depression: Heavy Rains In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

JUNE 1, 2016

A deep depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea around June 9, 2016, which will bring a deluge to coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Gujarat.

Monsoon will become very active on the Arabian Sea coast of India from June 6. Increased rainfall will be seen in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from June 6.

Mumbai will receive very heavy rains on June 8-9.

This will culminate in the formation of a tropical depression on June 9 off the Mumbai coast south of Saurashtra.

This system is expected to move into Saurashtra and Kutch regions bringing flooding rains till June 12-13. Coastal Sindh too might receive considerable precipitation.

The system may then swing back into the Arabian Sea, weaken and drift towards Oman. Oman may receive isolated showers by June 16.

The vigorous monsoon activity in the coming fortnight may bring phenomenal amounts of rain on India 's west coast. The forecast map indicates these areas will get accumulated rains of 25 inches in the coming 15 days.

Weather Outlook For India, South Asia, Middle East In Early June 2016

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MAY 31, 2016

The picture remains hazy with little agreement amongst major NWP models. But from what we gathered, two areas will be of interest in India, concerning monsoons. One is western India, Mumbai, Arabian Sea coastal areas and Gujarat. The second is Andhra Pradesh.

In both these regions there is a possibility of vigorous monsoon activity in early June.

WESTERN INDIA

The GFS still persists with an Arabian Sea trough bringing heavy precipitation to western India around June 10-13, 2016. Heavy pre-monsoon showers may occur in Mumbai on June 5-6. Drought hit Vidarbha will receive heavy rains on June 8-9.

Coastal Karnataka will get drenched on June 4 because of a rain-bearing trough in the Arabian Sea.

The monsoon onset in Mumbai will occur on June 12, 2016 with flooding rains. All because of the Arabian Sea trough which will form in a few days.

After Mumbai, the monsoons will hit Gujarat on June 14.

ANDHRA PRADESH 

The European model foresees an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam on June 6-7. It will bring good rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from June 7 onwards. 

It might so happen that we might be staring at a depression on the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7. Not a mere cyclonic circulation, but even may be tropical cyclone KYANT. Too early to say now.

We continuously analyse weather charts and will keep you informed of developments.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Another interesting possible development could be the first typhoon in the Western Pacific Ocean in 2016. There is a strong likelihood of typhoon NEPARTAK forming in the South China Sea around June 10. It could strongly affect Taiwan and eastern coast of Japan.

May 2016: Extreme Weather Forecast And Possibilities, Updates

WET MONTH FOR OMAN AHEAD?

May 5, 2016

Oman and perhaps the UAE are in for a stormy wet month if forecast models are to be believed. By the last week of May, a low pressure/depression is likely to move into central Oman bringing heavy rains. 

Then by June 10, 2016 a powerful tropical cyclone may hit northern Oman. This storm is likely to form around June 5, 2016 near the Kerala-Karnataka coast of India.

These predictions are based on the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model created by the US agency CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and thus are nothing to sneeze at.

Though one cannot say 100% that a cyclone will hit Oman, since the CFS forecast has been persistently foretelling a storm since the last 10 days, there is a good possibility of a tropical cyclone in early June developing in the Arabian Sea. Where it goes remains to be seen.

US AGENCY CPC SAYS NO CYCLONE TILL MAY 17

May 4, 2016

The CPC, the US agency says in it's latest forecast that though there will be increased rainfall in southern Arabian Sea, a cyclone is unlikely till May 17.

Please note that the CFS model has been developed by the CPC.

It says....

"During Week-2, the CFS and ECMWF models agree that above-median rainfall will continue across the Horn of Africa and western Indian Ocean. Above-median rainfall forecast across far southern India, Sri Lanka, and parts of the central Indian Ocean is related to the potential for a developing MJO by mid-May. 

Tropical cyclone development is unlikely across the global tropics during the next two weeks. This inactive period for tropical cyclone genesis is typical for early May."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

STORMS BREWING IN ARABIAN SEA IN END MAY
May 4, 2016

Latest CFS weekly forecasts indicate intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman after May 15, 2016. It is to be seen if it throws out a cyclone.

MONSOON WILL PUSH IN AROUND MAY 15
May 4, 2016

Below is the GFS forecast for May 15, 2016. It shows the high altitude 150 hPa winds. The easterly jet stream has been pushed up and the monsoon winds are arriving in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UNLIKELY TILL MAY 22

May 4, 2016

The chances of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal till May 22 seems remote. The CFS which had been hinting at a Arabian Sea storm by May end says today in its data that a cyclone is now likely in the Bay of Bengal in mid June. 

This has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Cyclones are inherently unpredictable. And May-June being storm seasons anything can happen anytime.

FORECAST TILL MAY 22

MAY 3, 2016

This is from IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that

➢Subsequent to the likely rain spell over major parts of India during the first pentad,  heat wave conditions are likely to re-develop over parts of east & central India (viz., Gangetic west Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha and Telangana) during 7th – 11th May.  This is likely to intensify and spread over to cover major parts of central and adjoining peninsular India and northwest India, during the period, 12th – 21st May.

➢Cyclogenesis is un-likely over the north Indian ocean during 2nd – 21st May.

➢However, cross equatorial flow in the lower troposphere is likely to reach south bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 15th May.

➢Likely eastward propagation of  the convective phase of MJO across the Indian ocean may cause a pre-monsoon rainfall peak, with above normal rainfall activity over extreme south peninsula during 12th – 21st May.

➢Western Disturbances are likely to cause above normal precipitation over western Himalayan region during 2nd – 6th May and 12th – 16th May.

CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT AT MONTHS END?

May 2

Is a tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea?

Yes, if the Climate Forecast System, run by an US agency is to believed. 

The CFS though a climate forecast model gives daily updates. And it's data has been suggesting a cyclone forming near the Kerala coast around May 23, 2016 for the last few days.

The tropical cyclone ROANU will be a massive one and it will traverse northward in the Arabian Sea for a week.

At one time it seems it will hit Oman but it will swerve and hit Pakistan on June 1, 2016.

At present it is a mere possibility.

Support from weather models like the GFS and ECMWF is awaited.

Though the GFS in today's forecast data says a low pressure is likely to develop near the Indian Kerala coast on May 18.