Monsoon To Intensify From June 18, 2016

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JUNE 13, 2016

Monsoon has been quite dormant after the push into Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh a few days back. Nothing dramatic is expected in the next 2-3 days except that it may move into Goa and some parts of North East India. Even the Goa part seems doubtful at present.

The Center of attraction is the Indian north east. Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland. It is going to rain cats and dogs here for at least the next three days. I guess it is monsoon entering in the area.

But from June 18, things are going to change elsewhere too. It will because of two circulations. One off Goa in the Arabian Sea. The second in the Bay of Bengal at the Andhra Pradesh coast.

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The monsoon will get very vigorous over Goa and northern Karnataka from June 18-19. Very heavy precipitation is expected in these regions. The rains will then move into the rest of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and parts of Maharashtra.

After that it is possible the monsoon may enter Mumbai, touch Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

There is a strong possibility of a low pressure area developing near the Goa coast on June 18-19. This system will have a lot of rain to throw. But present indications are that instead of moving north to Mumbai it will wander off in the sea. Where it goes is to be seen. Gujarat? Pakistan? Or head west towards Oman?

Rainfall activity to be vigorous over Karnataka, Goa coast in coming days

Image credit: Political Indian 

JUNE 4, 2016

The progress of the monsoon in 2016 will be undramatic this year. No drenching depression or tropical cyclone that will propel it into India. Just slow incremental progress. A tortoise not a hare.

Update, June 6: NOAA says MJO, Madden Julian Oscillation, will become active in Indian Ocean from June 8, hence monsoon will become vigorous soon. It also says possibility of a tropical cyclone in South China Sea is receding. 

Numerical weather prediction, NWP, models have been giving out erratic, inconsistent predictions. Just yesterday the European model hinted at a depression or a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. In today's data, there is none.

After analysing data from various models we have some insight into what is going to happen on the monsoon front in the coming days.

Rainfall activity after a few days will fizzle out on the eastern coast states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Though the northeastern states will remain wet. Monsoon should enter there in a few days.

Though some models see a different future for Andhra Pradesh. According to them rainfall will remain over the state till June 10 when a low pressure area may form off the coast. The system will move through the Bay of Bengal and drench northern Myanmar/Chittagong area after a couple of days.

But this scenario is not supported by the multi-model ensemble forecast. The rainfall forecast map valid till June 9 shows significant precipitation only in Karnataka, Kerala and Indian north eastern states.

The focus of attention will be the Arabian Sea coast of India. Karnataka is going to be pounded by rains for days. Coastal Karnataka and Goa will see increasing rainfall activity. This will slowly spread to Konkan and then Mumbai.

Monsoon may knock on its door on June 13-14 along with rest of Maharashtra. Gujarat on June 18-20.

Looking at rainfall forecast maps issued by NOAA's model we can say that by June 20, the rainy season will have started in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. We are talking here of the northern limit of monsoon's progress.

The Bay Of Bengal System Will Bring Heavy Rains To Coastal Andhra and Karnataka

Expected Rainfall from Low Pressure in the Bay of Bengal from now till November 15, 2014

A low pressure system hovers in the Bay of Bengal now. It is going to bring heavy rainfall to southern Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu in the next few days. Winds of 30-45 Kph will lash southern Andhra coast tomorrow.

The system is looking for warm waters in the Bay of Bengal for energy. But the waters in Indian east coast have cooled. So the system will not develop into a significant tropical storm.

But the low pressure area is going to bring a deluge in southern coastal Andhra and northern Tamil Nadu and especially Puducherry when it makes landfall on November 13, 2014 [Thursday]. Puducherry will see rains in excess of 5 inches. So will Nellore District [Including Nellore city] of Andhra Predesh.

Heavy rains will be seen in central Sri Lanka and Kerala also. Northern coastal Karnataka will see a deluge too, especially Udipi district. The rest of the state including Bengaluru will receive showers. South India will feel the effects of the system till Sunday. Goa will get some showers.

Indian Southern States In For Rains Till Nov 8, 2011

The Arabian Sea this November has been very disturbed. First it threw up a low pressure which went to the coast of Oman and turned into cyclone Keila. Now forecasts say another low pressure area is expected to build in this sea on Sunday (Nov 6, 2011). Owing to this the four southern states of India are in for rains. Especially affected will be Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and southern Andhra Pradesh. The wet spell is expected to last till Nov 8, 2011. It will dry up once the low pressure system moves away northward.

Rain Forecast Maps

 Rainfall Nov 4, 2011

 Predicted rainfall Nov 5, 2011

 Rainfall Nov 6, 2011

 Rainfall expected Nov 7, 2011. Notice the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea moving northwards

Nov 8, 2011. Kerala gets downpours. The rest of the states are dry. The menacing storm system now approaches the coasts of Oman, Gujarat and Pakistan