Monsoon Forecast: Heavy Rains Expected In Bengal, Bihar Till June 27, 2015

The low pressure area which is presently over Bangladesh will move through West Bengal and Bihar by June 27, 2015 bringing heavy rains to these states.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Bangladesh today. The rains will shift to north Bengal and then onto Bihar by tomorrow.

Very heavy rains are expected in sub Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar in the next 48 hours.

One fears of flooding in Bihar by Sunday.

The rains will ease by Monday as the low will dissipate by then.. There may be rainfall in eastern Uttar Pradesh too in the next 48 hours.

The latest (0430 hours GMT, June 26, 2015) rainfall satellite image shows rains in North Bengal presently.

After Gujarat, Monsoon Will Shift To Uttar Pradesh. Heavy Rains By June 27, 2015

The next deluge spot in India after Gujarat is Uttar Pradesh. The reason being the Bay of Bengal low will collide with the remnants of the Arabian Sea low in the next 3 days. The result will be flooding.

The Bay of Bengal low is now in Banglasdesh. In the next two days it will move through West Bengal onto Bihar. The Arabian Sea rain system, which flooded Saurashtra is presently in northern Madhya Pradesh. In the next two days it will move towards eastern Uttar Pradesh. On June 27, June 2015, the two system will collide over the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border.

The result will be heavy rains in the region.

So by the 27th of June we can envisage good rainfall activity in the following areas. Northern Madhya pradesh and Uttar Pradesh due to the Arabian Sea system. Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh owing to the Bay of Bengal low pressure system.

The next big activity in monsoon 2015 will be a low pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal around July 5, 2015. This is expected to move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But this will be a weak system.

The reason? The expected massive typhoon that will form in early July, 2015 in the Western pacific and which will hit Hongkong, Macau and northern Vietnam.

There is a deep relationship between the storm activity in the north Indian Ocean and West Pacific. Especially with the strong prevailing El Nino the storm activity is rationed between the two oceans. One gets active then the other gets passive.

Since two typhoons are expected in early July in the Western Pacific, one can assume that there is going to be big lull in the Indian monsoons in the first half of July 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low is presently about to enter Bangladesh.

DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, HIT SAURASHTRA TONIGHT

The latest GFS forecast data that is coming in says Arabian Sea deep depression 97A may rapidly intensify in the coming 12 hours, perhaps into a tropical cyclone and hit the Saurashtra Coast at Veraval today midnight. That is 0000 hours IST, June 23, 2015, Tuesday.

It is possible that wind speeds at impact will be 70-80 km/h, gusts upto 90 km/h.

The gale will be accompanied by torrential rains.

The deep depression/cyclone will swing North after making landfall and move into Kutch.

The most affected districts will be Gir Somnath, Porbandar, Junagadh, Rajkot, Morbi, and Kutch.

One wonders if the authorities are taking this possible threat seriously. The worry is if the GFS forecast turns true, there are just 14 hours before impact.

We are constantly monitoring what various computer forecasts models are saying and also the latest IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) updates.

Please keep in touch for breaking forecasts.

Arabian Sea Storm Intensity Forecast from Cyclocane. Only one model says it will not turn into a tropical storm.

Cyclone tracking site cyclocane.com says Arabian Sea depression 97A will be a tropical cyclone

Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone?) To Hit Kutch Early June 24, 2015

Weather update South Asia: June 22, 2015.

The low pressure area in the Arabian Sea has organised into a depression. At 0000 hours GMT it lay 275 kilometers WSW of Veraval, Gujarat. The southern quadrant of the system is throwing winds of 85 km/h. The Eumetsat MPE image was taken at 0400 hours GMT today. The red color denotes heavy rainfall. The system will now move towards the Gujarat coast. Rainfall activity will pick up from tomorrow itself in the region.

RAINFALL SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0400 GMT TODAY, JUNE 22, 2015

Depression 97A is expected to enter the coast of Kutch at Lakhpat on the morning of June 24, 2015, Wednesday. The system is expected to intensify into a deep depression as it moves to the Gujarat coast.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Kutch, Saurashtra and southern Sindh from late Tuesday evening. The rains will extend to north Gujarat and western Rajasthan by Friday.

Winds of 40-50 km/h, gusts up to 60 km/h, will lash the areas from Tuesday night (local time). In short, wind speeds just short of a tropical cyclone.

We have a suspicion that the system may intensify into a cyclone by landfall. The GFS forecast shows the expected central minimum pressure at landfall on early Wednesday morning to be 987 Mb. Now according to the Dvorak scale that equals a category 1 hurricane. That is wind speeds of 120 km/h. See the link for details .......https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

We expect that 97A may intensify into a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. That is Tuesday morning. June 23, 2015.

97A SEEMS TO BE A CYCLONE IN THE MAKING 

 Our estimate is the depression is 300 kilometers southwest of Veraval in Saurashtra-Kutch. The southern quadrant of the system is the windiest. 85 km/h. The other quadrants have winds ranging from 40-65 km/h. We think this is already a tropical cyclone. The rest is nitpicking on technicalities. Latest data by GFS rules out the possibility of a big tropical cyclone. Technically it may be called a deep depression but analysing the latest GFS forecast we see 70-80 km/h winds hitting Kutch on Wednesday. That is a cyclone by any definition.
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Latest update: June 22, 2015, 1600 hours GMT

DEEP DEPRESSION 97A TO HIT SAURASHTRA TUESDAY NIGHT

The present depression 97A in the Arabian Sea will hit the Saurashtra coast between Dwarka and Porbandar on late evening tomorrow that is on June 23, 2015, Tuesday.

It will move through Kutch and then move onto Rajasthan and then Delhi. 

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Saurashtra and Kutch in the next 72 hours starting tomorrow afternoon. There may be showers in Sindh on Wednesday.

The rains in Saurashtra and Kutch will be accompanied by strong winds of 50-60 km/h till Thursday.

This forecast is based on NCEP GFS latest data issued just now.
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Meanwhile the European forecast model  in its latest forecast  today June 22, 2015, 1200 hours GMT data, says 97A is already a tropical storm with a central pressure of 982 Mb. Quite a storm.

It predicts the storm will move straight east, touch southern Saurashtra at Diu in the next 24 hours and hit South Gujarat near Vapi-Valsad on Wednesday evening.

NOAA WATER VAPOR IMAGE OF ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0000 HRS GMT, JUNE 22, 2015

Gujarat Stares At Stormy Rain As Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone) Will Hit June 25, 2015

The present low pressure system in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Gujarat will intensify into a deep depression, perhaps even a tropical cyclone (Komen) and hit the state on June 25, 2015.

The system presently lies a few hundred kilometers south west of Veraval. In the coming 48 hours it will continue to drift away from the Gujarat coast. On Monday, June 21, 2015, it will start turning back towards Gujarat.

It is likely to enter Saurashtra-Kutch area of Gujarat on Thursday, June 25, 2015. It will hovers over the state till Saturday then dissipate. Under its influence very heavy rainfall accompanied with strong winds of 60-70 km/h are expected in Gujarat, especially in the Saurashtra-Kutch region from Wednesday itself.

The rains will continue from Wednesday till Saturday, that is from June 24-27, 2015. There may be flooding in some areas. The damage from the winds could be substantial.

The system will reach its peak intensity on June 21, 2015, reaching a minimum central pressure of 985 Mb. That is a tropical cyclone. It will be a borderline case between a deep depression and a tropical cyclone.

The official met agencies call 97A (the number given to it by NOAA- National Oceanography and Atmospheric Administration, an US agency) an upper air cyclonic circulation now. It is that presently. But it is organising itself into a well defined low pressure area. It will turn officially into a low by tomorrow morning. It will then intensify further possibly into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday, June 23, 2015. Or a deep depression. A borderline case. It will weaken into a low by the time it enters Gujarat by June 25, 2015. But it will bring a lot of stormy rainfall.

There is a possibility that the system may hit Gujarat earlier as one of the reliable forecast models is hinting at it. Please keep in touch. We will provide running updates as we get further information.

LATEST UPDATE June 21, 2015. 1030 GMT.

The system 97A will become organized into a deep depression or a tropical cyclone by Monday evening. From Tuesday, June 23, 2015, it will start coming back.

It will weaken a little before it enters the Saurashtra-Kutch western coast on Thursday, June 25.

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT JUNE 21, 2015 OF THE ARABIAN SEA RAIN SYSTEM 97A

Arabian Sea Low Pressure Area To Form Today (June 20, 2015) Off Saurashtra Coast

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE FOR ARABIAN SEA LOW

It will form today off the coast of Saurashtra region. Where will it go?

Two scenarios.

FIRST: it will stay close to the Saurashtra coast and intensify into a possible depression on Monday, June 22, 2015. It will make landfall into the region on Tuesday, move through central Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and end up finally in West Bengal.

SECOND: it intensifies and move back into the Arabian Sea, goes quite near the coast of Oman, then turn back. It will make landfall into Kutch on June June 25, 2015 and move through western Rajasthan towards Delhi. Heavy rains likely in Kutch, Saurashtra, and Sindh from June 23rd onwards.

The upper air circulation (the low) extends up to 8 kilometers in the atmosphere.

The image below shows the current situation in Arabian Sea now (0300 UTC, June 20, 2015).

India Weather Update: May 21, 2015: Bay Of Bengal Monsoon Stream Expected Stronger Than Arabian Sea

The Bay of Bengal is now the powerhouse sustaining the monsoon winds. An upper air cyclonic circulation in central the Bay is bringing floods to Maynmar now.

The circulation will continue in the coming days and will shift westward bringing the monsoons to the Indian east coast by June 5, 2015. As a result central Bay of Bengal is going to see a deluge in the coming week which will drench the Andaman Islands.

By the first week of June, rainfall activity over the coastal states will increase. In Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Odisha.

The Arabian Sea branch of the monsoons has petered out after bringing heavy rains to Kerala and Karnataka. It is expected to strengthen by June 5 and rainfall activity will increase. Kerala and Karnataka will be covered by the monsoons by that time. But Mumbai will have to wait. The Arabian Sea branch will not be as vigorous as the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon in the coming 15 days.

By June 6, 2015, the monsoons will have covered Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, parts of Andhra, Indian North Eastern States, and Bangladesh.

EXPECTED PROGRESS OF MONSOON BY JUNE 6, 2015