Rains Coming To Rajasthan, Punjab, Kashmir, Himachal Soon

The Bay of Bengal depression that drenched Gujarat for 4 days will weaken and move to Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh by Wednesday through Rajasthan, Punjab and Delhi.

The depression/low lies over northern Saurashtra presently near Halvad (See Storm Tracker). Under its influence heavy showers are expected in Saurashtra till late evening today. The rains will move to northern Gujarat tomorrow and then into Rajasthan.

By Wednesday (September 23, 2015) the rains will quickly move through the state and then Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and Jammu Kashmir. Heavy rains are possible on Wednesday-Thursday in Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The following are the GFS rain forecast maps for September 21, 22, 23. The figures are in mm.

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 21, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 22, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 23, 2015

Weakened Depression Moves To Saurashtra Kutch: Heavy Rains Coming To Rajasthan, Haryana-Delhi, Jammu Kashmir

The European Model was right once again. The deep depression 99B that came from the Bay of Bengal has weakened to a low pressure and lies presently over central Gujarat.

Yesterday under its influence South, Central and parts of North Gujarat received good rainfall. In the night the rains moved to Saurashtra. Especially in Amreli and Rajkot districts.

The system will move over towards Kutch and hover over the Radhanpur-Deesa region of the state in the next 48 hours.

Under its influence many parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and parts of north Gujarat may receive heavy showers till Monday afternoon that is September 21, 2015.

The system will then leave Gujarat and move through Rajasthan, Haryana-Delhi and  to Jammu Kashmir.  It is possible that it may swing into northern Pakistan on Tuesday-Wednesday bringing heavy rains to Punjab province.

Very heavy rains are likely in Haryana-Punjab Jammu Kashmir by September 24, 2015 with chances of floods.

Rain forecast map for September 22,2015. Flood causing rains likely  in Punjab, Jammu Kashmir by September 23, 2015

Now, that is Saturday morning, the low is in dormant state. There is sunlight in many parts of Gujarat. But that is just an illusion. The system will strengthen by tomorrow and may bring heavy showers to Saurashtra Kutch and parts of North Gujarat. Especially in the districts of Amreli, Bhavnagar parts of Rajkot, Kutch, Kheda, Ahmedabad, Banaskantha and Patan.

There is a possibility of another low pressure area developing off the Karnataka coast around September 29, 2015 in the Arabian Sea.

See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

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Satellite image of South Asia at 0500 hours GMT today. September 19, 2015

Heavy Rains Likely in Western And North India: Forecast Models Differ On Where In Gujarat

The depression that originated in the Bay of Bengal has reached Vidarbha in Maharashtra presently. As a result showers are occurring in western parts of the state.

One thing is sure. In the next 5 days the system will move through Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and reach Jammu and Kashmir. It is expected to weaken after leaving Gujarat on September 22, 2015 but the mentioned states will receive good rainfall.

The GFS forecast on track and rain forecast of the low pressure area

The confusion lies in where it will rain in Gujarat under the influence of this system. Forecast models differ.

The GFS predicts the depression will weaken from the present 996 Mb system to 1002-4 system in a day or two. A mere low or an upper air cyclonic system. It says only south, central and parts of north Gujarat will get any significant precipitation. Saurashtra-Kutch will be left mainly dry.

The European ECMWF model foresees a stronger system. That the present depression will remain a 994 Mb system as long as it hovers above Gujarat. A stronger system means more rains. It also predicts that the low will move to Kutch and then onto Rajasthan. So this model predicts more rains in Saurashtra and Kutch.

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Track The Storm

Satellite image of the low pressure area approaching western India. Image taken at 0530 hours GMT, September 18, 2015

Rain-Maker Depression To Deluge Andhra, Maharashtra, Mumbai By September 20, 2015

We had predicted a low pressure/depression in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea almost a week ago. The system will form on September 14, 2015 near the Andhra coast.

The Bay of Bengal is already showing increased storm activity in preparation of the birth of the rain maker weather system.

The low pressure area will form off the eastern coast of India near Andhra Pradesh and hover around for the next two days till September 18 bringing heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh.

It will then cross the coast and move through Andhra, Telangana, Northern Karnataka, Maharashtra onto Mumbai.

Very heavy rains are expected in Mumbai on September 20.

The low pressure area will then intensify again in the warm waters of the Arabian Sea into a depression/deep depression (Forecasts rule out a tropical cyclone presently, but 10 days is a long long time in weather forecasting. Anything can happen).

The depression is expected to move along the Saurashtra coast into the open sea and reach the coast of central Oman on September 23, 2015. Though the European model believes it will move into Gujarat on September 20. We have to wait awhile before the picture becomes clearer.

In a nutshell the low pressure area is going to bring very heavy rains to Andhra to Mumbai from September 14.

 A SECOND DEPRESSION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL?

A forecast model predicts a depression moving into Odisha on September 21, 2015, but this is yet to be confirmed by other models. It appears that the present low pressure area in the South China Sea is going to do a lot of travelling over Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar and then hop over into the Bay of Bengal on September 19. This will then gain strength and become a deep depression and hit Odisha as we have said earlier. Chances are this predicted system has the makings of another tropical cyclone. As there are  10 more days to go and forecasts have the habit of changing in these many days.

The European Model predicts this low in the South China Sea will hit Odisha on September 21, 2015

Cyclone CHAPALA to from off Konkan coast on September 20, 2015?

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The depression as seen on September 21, 2015, moving away from the Indian coast off Mumbai.

Gujarat Stares At Stormy Rain As Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone) Will Hit June 25, 2015

The present low pressure system in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Gujarat will intensify into a deep depression, perhaps even a tropical cyclone (Komen) and hit the state on June 25, 2015.

The system presently lies a few hundred kilometers south west of Veraval. In the coming 48 hours it will continue to drift away from the Gujarat coast. On Monday, June 21, 2015, it will start turning back towards Gujarat.

It is likely to enter Saurashtra-Kutch area of Gujarat on Thursday, June 25, 2015. It will hovers over the state till Saturday then dissipate. Under its influence very heavy rainfall accompanied with strong winds of 60-70 km/h are expected in Gujarat, especially in the Saurashtra-Kutch region from Wednesday itself.

The rains will continue from Wednesday till Saturday, that is from June 24-27, 2015. There may be flooding in some areas. The damage from the winds could be substantial.

The system will reach its peak intensity on June 21, 2015, reaching a minimum central pressure of 985 Mb. That is a tropical cyclone. It will be a borderline case between a deep depression and a tropical cyclone.

The official met agencies call 97A (the number given to it by NOAA- National Oceanography and Atmospheric Administration, an US agency) an upper air cyclonic circulation now. It is that presently. But it is organising itself into a well defined low pressure area. It will turn officially into a low by tomorrow morning. It will then intensify further possibly into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday, June 23, 2015. Or a deep depression. A borderline case. It will weaken into a low by the time it enters Gujarat by June 25, 2015. But it will bring a lot of stormy rainfall.

There is a possibility that the system may hit Gujarat earlier as one of the reliable forecast models is hinting at it. Please keep in touch. We will provide running updates as we get further information.

LATEST UPDATE June 21, 2015. 1030 GMT.

The system 97A will become organized into a deep depression or a tropical cyclone by Monday evening. From Tuesday, June 23, 2015, it will start coming back.

It will weaken a little before it enters the Saurashtra-Kutch western coast on Thursday, June 25.

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT JUNE 21, 2015 OF THE ARABIAN SEA RAIN SYSTEM 97A

Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY