Rains Coming To Rajasthan, Punjab, Kashmir, Himachal Soon

The Bay of Bengal depression that drenched Gujarat for 4 days will weaken and move to Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh by Wednesday through Rajasthan, Punjab and Delhi.

The depression/low lies over northern Saurashtra presently near Halvad (See Storm Tracker). Under its influence heavy showers are expected in Saurashtra till late evening today. The rains will move to northern Gujarat tomorrow and then into Rajasthan.

By Wednesday (September 23, 2015) the rains will quickly move through the state and then Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and Jammu Kashmir. Heavy rains are possible on Wednesday-Thursday in Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The following are the GFS rain forecast maps for September 21, 22, 23. The figures are in mm.

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 21, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 22, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 23, 2015

Weakened Depression Moves To Saurashtra Kutch: Heavy Rains Coming To Rajasthan, Haryana-Delhi, Jammu Kashmir

The European Model was right once again. The deep depression 99B that came from the Bay of Bengal has weakened to a low pressure and lies presently over central Gujarat.

Yesterday under its influence South, Central and parts of North Gujarat received good rainfall. In the night the rains moved to Saurashtra. Especially in Amreli and Rajkot districts.

The system will move over towards Kutch and hover over the Radhanpur-Deesa region of the state in the next 48 hours.

Under its influence many parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and parts of north Gujarat may receive heavy showers till Monday afternoon that is September 21, 2015.

The system will then leave Gujarat and move through Rajasthan, Haryana-Delhi and  to Jammu Kashmir.  It is possible that it may swing into northern Pakistan on Tuesday-Wednesday bringing heavy rains to Punjab province.

Very heavy rains are likely in Haryana-Punjab Jammu Kashmir by September 24, 2015 with chances of floods.

Rain forecast map for September 22,2015. Flood causing rains likely  in Punjab, Jammu Kashmir by September 23, 2015

Now, that is Saturday morning, the low is in dormant state. There is sunlight in many parts of Gujarat. But that is just an illusion. The system will strengthen by tomorrow and may bring heavy showers to Saurashtra Kutch and parts of North Gujarat. Especially in the districts of Amreli, Bhavnagar parts of Rajkot, Kutch, Kheda, Ahmedabad, Banaskantha and Patan.

There is a possibility of another low pressure area developing off the Karnataka coast around September 29, 2015 in the Arabian Sea.

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Satellite image of South Asia at 0500 hours GMT today. September 19, 2015

Heavy Rains Likely in Western And North India: Forecast Models Differ On Where In Gujarat

The depression that originated in the Bay of Bengal has reached Vidarbha in Maharashtra presently. As a result showers are occurring in western parts of the state.

One thing is sure. In the next 5 days the system will move through Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and reach Jammu and Kashmir. It is expected to weaken after leaving Gujarat on September 22, 2015 but the mentioned states will receive good rainfall.

The GFS forecast on track and rain forecast of the low pressure area

The confusion lies in where it will rain in Gujarat under the influence of this system. Forecast models differ.

The GFS predicts the depression will weaken from the present 996 Mb system to 1002-4 system in a day or two. A mere low or an upper air cyclonic system. It says only south, central and parts of north Gujarat will get any significant precipitation. Saurashtra-Kutch will be left mainly dry.

The European ECMWF model foresees a stronger system. That the present depression will remain a 994 Mb system as long as it hovers above Gujarat. A stronger system means more rains. It also predicts that the low will move to Kutch and then onto Rajasthan. So this model predicts more rains in Saurashtra and Kutch.

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Satellite image of the low pressure area approaching western India. Image taken at 0530 hours GMT, September 18, 2015