Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY

Mumbai, South Gujarat Stare At A Deluge, Floods On June 23, 2015

Major reliable computer forecast models are predicting very heavy rains in Mumbai and South Gujarat on June 23, 2015.

The reasons lie in the expected resurgence of the monsoons in the next 48 hours. We have talked about this in an earlier article.

As we said earlier the monsoons are really going to rev up, shorn of the Ashobaa baggage, in the next two days.

A start has been made with the increased  monsoon activity off the Andhra coast in the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation has already formed in the sea which is going to intensify into a low pressure area or a depression by June 20, 2015.

And in the Arabian Sea too things are going to happen in the next two days. A low pressure trough is taking shape presently. In the next few days this trough will become well marked and drift towards the Indian coast. By June 20-21, it might turn into a low pressure area.

About the Bay of Bengal expected system there is some disagreement as to its track. One forecast says it will move into Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and then swing north towards Uttar Pradesh. Another forecast predicts it will move west and reach western Maharashtra and Mumbai on June 23, 2015.

If this happens this Bay of Bengal system will collide headlong into the Arabian Sea low hovering near the Mumbai coast. The result? A deluge. Flooding rains in Mumbai and south Gujarat on June 23 onwards.

Even if the Bay of Bengal system moves to north India, very heavy rains are likely in Mumbai on June 23, 2015, as a result of the Arabian Sea low pressure area.

Anyway one looks at it, the conclusion is inescapable. 

Very heavy rains in Mumbai On June 23, 2015.

THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI ON JUNE 23, 2015

Indian Monsoons To Intensify Soon: Depression Off Andhra Coast On June 20, 2015

The monsoons are going to intensify rapidly in the coming few days with the formation of a depression in the Bay Of Bengal on June 20, 2015.

The intensification will be two pronged. The depression in the Bay of Bengal on June 20. And the formation of a low/cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea soon.

Let us discuss in details.

DEEP DEPRESSION OFF ANDHRA COAST JUNE 20, 2015

The low pressure area near the Andhra coast has already formed. It will intensify into a depression (May be a deep depression) by June 20.

It will move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in the following days.

Very to very heavy rainfall expected in these states after June 20, 2015.

The system will swing north into Rajasthan-western Uttar Pradesh on June 24, 2015.

HEAVY RAINS IN GUJARAT, SINDH LIKELY IN A WEEK

A low is expected to form in the Arabian Sea after June 20, 2015. It will start off as a trough off the Mumbai coast and then organize itself in  low around June 22.

This will further intensify into a depression and move through Gujarat and then enter Sindh in Pakistan.

Very heavy precipitation is expected in these area after June 22, 2015.

It is possible the system may not organize into a low but remain a upper air cyclonic circulation. But it will be a big rain maker.

Presently both major computer models are supporting heavy rains in western India after June 20. The GFS predicts a track of Saurashtra-Kutch-Sindh. The European model says it will move towards Mumbai-South Gujarat.

Image credit

Dismal Monsoon Rainfall Expected Till June 22, 2015

IMD's grim picture for monsoon 2015 seems to be coming true. Looks like the villain El Nino is going to spoil the rains in the Indian sub-continent, at least for the next one month, till June 22, 2015.

The CFS Model, the long range climate forecast model designed by NOAA in its predictions for the coming four weeks paints a grim picture of deficient rainfall, in almost all parts of India.

Overall the rains till June 22 are going to be below average in almost all areas of India, except for some pockets of North East, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.

Given below are rainfall forecast maps for the coming four weeks, starting from May 25, 2015.

Please note that the CFS forecasts are issued every day. What we say now is the basic trend that we have discerned after monitoring the data for the last one week. We shall keep you informed of future trends of the rainfall possibility as envisaged by the Climate Forecast Model.

Click here for CFS Monthly Forecasts (June to September 2015)

WEEK 1 (May 25 to June 1)

The worst affected will be coastal areas along the Arabian Sea. The rain deficiency will be as high as 4 inches in some areas.

MAY 25 TO JUNE 1: KERALA WILL HAVE RAINS 4-5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ONLY PARTS OF ASSAM, NORTH BENGAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH WILL HAVE SURPLUS PRECIPITATION.

WEEK 2: JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8

JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8: THE RAIN DEFICIENCY ON INDIAN WEST COAST MAY BE AS HIGH AS 6-7 INCHES. EVEN THE NORTH EASTERN STATES WILL RECEIVE RAINS 5-6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

JUNE 8 TO JUNE 15, 2015

JUNE 8 TO JUNE 15: THE HORROR STORY CONTINUES INTO THE THIRD WEEK. RAINS IN KERALA AND INDIAN WEST COASTAL AREAS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE BY ALMOST 10 INCHES. ONLY CERTAIN POCKETS IN KARNATAKA WILL HAVE SURPLUS RAINS (ABOUT 2 INCHES)

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 22, 2015

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 22: A LOW PRESSURE IN THE ARABIAN SEA WILL DUMP PRECIOUS COPIOUS RAIN INTO THE SEA. RAINS DEFICIENT IN INDIAN WEST COAST, ODISHA, ANDHRA AND WEST BENGAL. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS OF KARNATAKA, TAMIL NADU AND IN MANIPUR, TRIPURA, MEGHALAYA AND MIZORAM

Monsoon 2015 Update: Weak June, Good July Rainfall Expected

NOAAs CFS (Climate Forecast System) predicts poor monsoon rainfall in June in the Indian subcontinent. July and August will bring good rains.

The monsoons are knocking at Kerala's doors. But the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is likely to remain weak in the coming days.

The IMD considers a certain amount of rainfall to declare the onset of monsoon. That is why it says it will come to Kerala around May 30. Because around that time considerable rainfall is forecasted for the state.

If we do not take the rains into account, monsoons have already reached the state. The monsoons winds reaching up to 14 kilometers in the atmosphere are already in place. They have already reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra and Karnataka.

But the Arabian Sea monsoons will remain weak in the coming 10 days. It is not likely to move north in the coming days. In contrast the Bay of Bengal monsoon stream is vigorous and will move north into West Bengal and Bihar around June 4, 2015.

SCENARIO ON JUNE 4, 2015. THE MAP SHOWS  A VIGOROUS  BAY OF BENGAL MONSOON STREAM. THE ACTIVITY OVER ARABIAN SEA IS FEEBLE.

CFS MONTHLY MONSOON FORECAST

The American NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecasts poor monsoon rains in June for India. July and August are likely to be above average rain fall months.

Given below are rainfall forecast maps for June-September. Please note the maps show the anomaly (below average, above average) in inches for each month.

One fact stands out very clearly. Average or below average rainfall is expected in north Indian states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana) and Rajasthan this monsoon.

The CFS forecasts are seasonal long range forecasts. They give a good indication of the trends. We will keep you informed of any changes in the CFS forecast for monsoon 2015.

THE FORECAST FOR JUNE 2015 VERY POOR RAINS ON THE ARABIAN SEA COASTAL AREAS AND MANY OTHER STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ARE LIKELY ONLY IN NORTH EASTERN INDIA, PARTS OF BANGLADESH, TAMIL NADU AND PARTS OF KERALA AND SOUTHERN ANDHRA.

JULY WILL BE BETTER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH, MAHARASHRA, ANDHRA, ODISHA, WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH AND PARTS OF BIHAR.

AUGUST WILL BRING GOOD RAINS TO SAURASHTRA, MAHARASHTRA, ODISHA, ANDHRA, JHARKHAND, WEST BENGAL.

SEPTEMBER WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS ODISHA, MADHYA PRADESH AND NORTH EAST INDIAN STATES

JMA (JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY) SEASONAL FORECAST PAINTS DISMAL MONSOON 2015 PICTURE

The JMA in its three month forecast issued in May predicts a very gloomy picture for Indian monsoons in 2015. It says in June-July-August rainfall is going to below normal in almost all of India, except for the states of Odisha, West Bengal and northern Andhra where there will be slightly above average rainfall. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW

THREE MONTH RAINFALL FORECAST (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST)  MONSOON 2015. JMA PREDICTS BELOW AVERAGE RAINS IN ALMOST ALL OF INDIA

Galloping Indian Monsoon May Hit Kerala In Days

UPDATE: MAY 19, 2015

We stand by our earlier forecast of monsoons hitting Kerala by May 23-24. But after that the monsoon winds will suddenly lose steam. By June 1, 2015, they will have reached southern Maharashtra, after covering Kerala and Karnataka. Mumbai will have to wait.

On the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon, by June 1, the entire Indian north-eastern states, Bangladesh and parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra will be covered.

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 The South West Monsoon this year seems to be galloping. Two days back it entered the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. And if forecasts are to be believed it will hit Kerala by May 23, 2015. It is already nudging southern Sri Lanka.

Please note that we are NOT taking into consideration the parameters that the Indian Meteorological Department uses. The IMD uses a subjective method described in this article. (Further information can be had in this article by Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology).We base our prediction on the upper air winds (above 12 kilometers). Monsoons is just not rains and dark clouds. The monsoon system extends high in the atmosphere. When the direction of these high air winds change on a long range basis, we can say with surety that monsoons are coming.

Seeing these high air winds, we see them reaching Kerala on around May 23, Mumbai by May 29 and the Indian north east and eastern Indian by the end of the month. Way before the normal onset of monsoons. We see the monsoons touching eastern Gujarat by June 2, 2015!

MONSOON TODAY NOW. REACHED ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS, TOUCHING SOUTHERN SRI LANKA

MAY 23, 2015. MONSOONS HIT KERALA

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IMD's Weak 2015 Monsoon Prediction Not The Gospel Truth

The Indian Meteorological Department has expressed fears of El Nino causing a weak 2015 monsoon. But this is to be taken with a pinch of salt. The IMD's predictions in the past have often been wide off the mark.

We reproduce below what the Wall Street Journal has to say about this.

India’s weather department this week unveiled its annual early forecast of how much rain the monsoon will likely dump on the Subcontinent this year. A precise prediction is crucial for the hundreds of millions of farmers who depend on the annual rains but history shows that these early forecasts are usually wrong.

Last year the India Meteorological Department predicted a slightly weak monsoon, but India got a drought. The year before it forecast below-average rains, and the subcontinent got well above average. In 2009 when India had its worst drought in decades, the IMD had predicted a normal monsoon.

The government’s weather watchers use the average rainfall for the last 50 years to define what is normal. If the rainfall for the June-through-September rainy season falls between 96% and 104% of the average, then that is a normal or good monsoon.

Rainfall of less than 90% is considered a drought, rainfall of more than 110% of the average is considered an excess.

The department has been monitoring the moody monsoon for more than a century and over the years has had to repeatedly tweak its forecasting model and acquire new technology to better predict the rains. But its earliest predictions still leave a lot to be desired.

While the IMD allows for a wide margin of error of 5% above or below its April predictions, it still rarely gets it right.  Even within that 10 percentage point margin of error, its early prediction has been right in only six of the last 21 years.