Gujarat Stares At Stormy Rain As Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone) Will Hit June 25, 2015

The present low pressure system in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Gujarat will intensify into a deep depression, perhaps even a tropical cyclone (Komen) and hit the state on June 25, 2015.

The system presently lies a few hundred kilometers south west of Veraval. In the coming 48 hours it will continue to drift away from the Gujarat coast. On Monday, June 21, 2015, it will start turning back towards Gujarat.

It is likely to enter Saurashtra-Kutch area of Gujarat on Thursday, June 25, 2015. It will hovers over the state till Saturday then dissipate. Under its influence very heavy rainfall accompanied with strong winds of 60-70 km/h are expected in Gujarat, especially in the Saurashtra-Kutch region from Wednesday itself.

The rains will continue from Wednesday till Saturday, that is from June 24-27, 2015. There may be flooding in some areas. The damage from the winds could be substantial.

The system will reach its peak intensity on June 21, 2015, reaching a minimum central pressure of 985 Mb. That is a tropical cyclone. It will be a borderline case between a deep depression and a tropical cyclone.

The official met agencies call 97A (the number given to it by NOAA- National Oceanography and Atmospheric Administration, an US agency) an upper air cyclonic circulation now. It is that presently. But it is organising itself into a well defined low pressure area. It will turn officially into a low by tomorrow morning. It will then intensify further possibly into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday, June 23, 2015. Or a deep depression. A borderline case. It will weaken into a low by the time it enters Gujarat by June 25, 2015. But it will bring a lot of stormy rainfall.

There is a possibility that the system may hit Gujarat earlier as one of the reliable forecast models is hinting at it. Please keep in touch. We will provide running updates as we get further information.

LATEST UPDATE June 21, 2015. 1030 GMT.

The system 97A will become organized into a deep depression or a tropical cyclone by Monday evening. From Tuesday, June 23, 2015, it will start coming back.

It will weaken a little before it enters the Saurashtra-Kutch western coast on Thursday, June 25.

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT JUNE 21, 2015 OF THE ARABIAN SEA RAIN SYSTEM 97A

Tropical Cyclone QUANG To Make Landfall In Six Hours Into Western Australia

Tropical cyclone Quang is still a powerful storm with winds of 90 kph Just yesterday it was throwing out winds of 200+ kph. But it is weakening as it prepares to enter the Western Australian coast near Exmouth at 1200 hours GMT today.

Strong winds and torrential rainfall are pounding the area as the storm approaches. The airfield at Learmonth and the town of Exmouth are the most affected.

But as Quang makes landfall the winds will dramatically fall and it will turn into a depression and then a low pressure as it moves inland. It will dissipate rapidly.

TROPICAL CYCLONE QUANG WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER THAT. BUT EXPECT HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA IN NEXT 24 HOURS

CFS (Climate Forecast System) Predicts An Arabian Sea Cyclone in June 2015

CFS (Climate Forecast System) has been developed to give long range forecasts for two months and more by the US NOAA.

Perusing the forecast data by the CFS Model one sees a powerful cyclone developing in southern Arabian Sea in the first week of June 2015. The cyclone is expected to move towards the coast of Oman and move along it some few hundred kilometers away

By June 10, 2015, the cyclone will curve north-eastward and hit the coast of Saurashtra between Porbandar and Dwarka and move north into western Kachch and then into Pakistan's Sindh Province

Let us make one thing very clear. The CFS Model is not very reliable. But it does give useful indications. In fact even the reliable GFS and ECMWF forecasts beyond ten days should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

But the cyclone season in the north Indian Ocean is about to begin. The sea temperatures are already over the cut-off point of 26.5 degrees C. The temperature required to fuel a tropical cyclone.

In 2014, the North Indian Ocean had kick-started by Cyclone Mahasen that had formed in the first half of May and gone on to hit Bangladesh.

We will keep a close watch and give you latest updates on the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal this May-June, which is the time storms develop.

A Greatly Weakened Typhoon Maysak Will Hit Northern Philippines April 5 Morning

Typhoon Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it makes landfall into Northern Philippines at Luzon and Cagayan on the morning of April 5, 2015.

After wreaking havoc on Yap Islands super typhoon Maysak is moving towards northern Philippines. Currently it lies about 1700 kilometers from the coast of eastern Luzon. 

It is already a super typhoon. In the coming hours it will intensify even more. It will be at its strongest at midnight tonight. The JTWC predicts it will then have sustained winds of 280 kph with gusts up to an astounding 330 kph.

But within 24 hours it will start weakening as it continues moving Philippines. Our estimate is that by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines on the morning of April 5, 2015 (Local Time) it will be just  whipping up winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph.

The coast of eastern Luzon can expect winds of about 60-80 kph on April 5. Accompanied, of course, by heavy rains. Mercifully Maysak will weaken a lot by that time. The imagination boggles when one images Maysak hitting Philippines with its present strength. Another Haiyan.

UPDATE: APRIL 2, 2015

There is no doubt that typhoon Maysak is already weakening as it moves towards northern Philippines. Though still a powerful storm now, it is weakening by the hour. It is expected to make landfall into Luzon on Saturday late night, April 4, 2015. At that time it will be little more than a weak tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 60-70 kph. Or less

So there is little peril for Philippines. Though the heavy rains may cause problems.

THE WEATHER FORECAST MAP SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE MAYSAK ENTERING LUZON ON LATE NIGHT SATURDAY, APRIL 4, 2015.

See Typhoon MAYSAK LIVE

READ MORE ON TYPHOON MAYSAK

LATEST TRACK FORECAST AND WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK BY JTWC

Seas Around Australia May Throw Out Many Storms Soon

January 5, 2015

After Western Pacific spawned the massive Hagupit and little rain-maker Jangmi, the attention has shifted to the seas around Australia. If forecasts are to be believed  that area is going to throw out many tropical cyclones in the coming days.

A low pressure area has already developed in the Timor Sea near Kimberley. It has come under NOAA's notice. It calls it "Invest" 99S. This storm is expected to intensify in the coming days into a tropical cyclone.

Bureau of Meteorology spokesman Neil Bennett has hinted that the low pressure may tun into a tropical cyclone in  the "Perth Now" newspaper. Mr Bennett said forecasters think the low will remain over land but may move over water late in the week and intensify into a tropical cyclone.

Another "Low" has formed near Papua New Guinea which is set to strengthen into a storm soon. Perhaps before the expected storm near Kimberley. It will become a tropical cyclone by January 7, 2015.

The Gulf of Carpentaria at the Queensland coast is also in the throes of giving birth to a cyclone.

So in the coming 7 days there are three potential cyclones waiting to be born in the seas near Australia.

We shall keep a close watch on the emerging situation and keep you posted.

South Western Indian Ocean

The forecast models persist with the prediction of a humdinger of a storm developing north of Mauritius on January 14, 2015. The storm is expected to intensify rapidly and move right through Rodrigues Island. Seems like the Mascarene Islands are in for really rough weather mid-January.

Expected Tracks Path of Upcoming cyclone at northern Australia coast. January 2015.