XWF Prediction: 2016 Indian Monsoon Will Be Good, El Niño Waning

April 1, 2016

After the erratic rains in 2015 there is good news for India this year. The monsoons are expected to be good. The dreaded El Niño is waning steadily and by June it will become neutral.

And we all know a weak El Niño means bountiful rains in the south west monsoons. It had been positive last year and brought poor precipitation in the Indian sub-continent.

The United States global weather agency, Climate Prediction Center, too predicts above average rainfall in India from June to September. (See rain forecast maps).

Interestingly the CPC forecasts rains in many parts of the country even in May. Pre-monsoon activity will be strong in that month.

Talking of precipitation prospects for the next 10 days, the heaviest falls will occur in Indian north-eastern states, Sri Lanka and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year may adversely affect the South West Monsoon in 2016. (Of course the neutral or negative El Niño will offset this IOD factor this year hence both National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Indian Meteorological Department are forecasting a good monsoon in 2016).

Below are rainfall forecast maps for South Asia starting May through September 2016. The green and blue colours denote above average rain. The yellow and brown show deficient precipitation. The prediction is based on NOAA's Climate Forecast Model (CFS).

Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 Forecast

MAY: Heavy rains in parts of Indian north east. Surprisingly rains through out India barring central and eastern parts.

JUNE: Heaviest precipitation in Madhya Pradesh and Malabar coast.

JULY: Drenching in central and parts of western India.

AUGUST: Above average rains in many parts. Deficient in Andhra.

SEPTEMBER: Above average rains in entire India except western Rajasthan.

No Cyclone For Now In Arabian Sea

There is disappointing news for cyclone enthusiasts. Latest forecasts indicate that the possibility of a storm developing in the Arabian Sea is receding.

We had earlier portended that cyclone Chapala was imminent in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015. Latest data from the GFS model rules out this possibility.

The European Model denies even a low pressure in the Arabian Sea.

But a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is very much in the cards. This low will be born within a couple of days. The ECMWF model is bearish on this system. It might throw down a lot of rain in Andhra and Telangana but then it expects it to fizzle out.

The GFS model is much more bullish. We stand by our earlier forecast of the Bay of Bengal low moving across Andhra, Telangana, Maharashtra and then rejuvenating in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015.

So lots of rain on Konkan coast and Mumbai around then. The low in the Arabian Sea will then move to coastal Saurashtra around September 22, but the chances of this low developing into a cyclone seems remote for now.

But what we say now may change in the coming days, so taking today's forecast as gospel truth would be a mistake. We are just reporting the trends. Anything can happen on September 20, 2015.

We notice another low developing in the Arabian Sea around September 25. A cyclone perhaps? But more on that as the situation develops.

Now some good news and some bad news.

The bad news is bad boy El Nino is still very strong even in September. It screwed up the Indian monsoon rains in 2015.

The good news is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly positive presently. A positive IOD means good rains and storms in North Indian Ocean.

Bad news. El Nino is still strong in September

Good news! Indian Ocean Dipole very positive presently