XWF WEATHER Long Range Forecast: Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone In June 2017

APRIL 14, 2017

The US Climate Prediction Center has hinted strongly at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea in early June this year. 

The CPC's CFS (Coupled Forecast System) model has been consistently showing a tropical depression/cyclone forming in the Arabian Sea in June. Recent data indicate a tropical cyclone taking shape off the Kerala coast around June 6-7, which intensifies and goes on to make landfall into Oman on June 14, 2017.

Please keep in mind that the CFS is a climate forecast model, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. So the accuracy about the track and date of the expected storm is bound to be comparatively less. But this model, as we have observed now and again, has been good at giving out possibilies of tropical storm formation.

We can say this with some certainty that a tropical storm is imminent in the Arabian Sea this June. When it forms is to be seen. Where it goes, Gujarat, Sindh or Oman, is uncertain at this stage.

There is an equally good possibility that a tropical cyclone may form the in the Bay of Bengal around June 25, 2017. The onset of monsoon over India is going to be early and strong according to the American climate forecast agency.

Renowned Indian meteorologist PV Joseph, a former director of Indian Meteorological Department, too says the monsoon will hit India earlier in 2017 around May 24.

Studying the data from the CFS model in the last few days, one sees the South West monsoon becoming very active  since the start of June, 2017, in the Arabian Sea. A couple of rain bearing systems will push monsoons onto the Indian west coast, including Gujarat and Sindh by June 10. So the start of the monsoon this year is going to be timely and vigorous.

XWF Prediction: 2016 Indian Monsoon Will Be Good, El Niño Waning

April 1, 2016

After the erratic rains in 2015 there is good news for India this year. The monsoons are expected to be good. The dreaded El Niño is waning steadily and by June it will become neutral.

And we all know a weak El Niño means bountiful rains in the south west monsoons. It had been positive last year and brought poor precipitation in the Indian sub-continent.

The United States global weather agency, Climate Prediction Center, too predicts above average rainfall in India from June to September. (See rain forecast maps).

Interestingly the CPC forecasts rains in many parts of the country even in May. Pre-monsoon activity will be strong in that month.

Talking of precipitation prospects for the next 10 days, the heaviest falls will occur in Indian north-eastern states, Sri Lanka and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year may adversely affect the South West Monsoon in 2016. (Of course the neutral or negative El Niño will offset this IOD factor this year hence both National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Indian Meteorological Department are forecasting a good monsoon in 2016).

Below are rainfall forecast maps for South Asia starting May through September 2016. The green and blue colours denote above average rain. The yellow and brown show deficient precipitation. The prediction is based on NOAA's Climate Forecast Model (CFS).

Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 Forecast

MAY: Heavy rains in parts of Indian north east. Surprisingly rains through out India barring central and eastern parts.

JUNE: Heaviest precipitation in Madhya Pradesh and Malabar coast.

JULY: Drenching in central and parts of western India.

AUGUST: Above average rains in many parts. Deficient in Andhra.

SEPTEMBER: Above average rains in entire India except western Rajasthan.