The JTWC Says Cyclone Ashobaa Has Already Formed: Will Hit Visakhapatnam In 3 Days

The forecast track of Cyclone Ashobaa according to the JTWC

The JTWC in its latest bulletin says Cyclone Ashobaa {Tropical Storm 5B] has already formed in the Bay of Bengal. It lies 1000 south of Kolkata. Its maximum winds at present are 65 Kph gusting up to 85 Kph. That qualifies it to be a cyclone. But we will have to wait for the IMD to christen it Ashobaa.

The cyclone will not be a very powerful storm. When it impacts Visakhapatnam on Saturday [November 9, 2014] winds will be about 65-85 Kph. But very heavy rainfall is expected in Andhra Pradesh then.

There is some confusion about Cyclone Ashobaa. The JTWC says it has already formed. The GFS forecast says it will form later on November 10, 2014, and hit the Andhra coast on November 12. The GFS forecast says the storm will be much bigger. We have already written about it in an earlier post. The GFS says the present depression in the Bay will fizzle out. The cyclone will come later. An intensification of a low pressure area from the South China Sea.

We will check the latest GFS forecast and confirm what the situation is.

Latest JTWC forecast: Nilofar Cyclone will hit Kachch Gujarat Friday morning

The JTWC in its latest bulletin (October 27, 2014, 8:30 AM IST) says Nilofar cyclone will enter Gujarat near Narayan Sarovar (Western Kutch) on early Friday (October 31, 2014) morning, Indian Standard Time.

There is some disagreement between this and what the GFS says. GFS says Nilofar will curve less and hit Sindh in Pakistan.

We will continue giving you the latest updates.

Cyclone NILOFAR Will Hit Karachi October 30, 2014 Night

The latest (1500 hrs UTC October 26, 2014) JTWC prediction

Cyclone Nilofar is coming. Right now it is disorganized and hovering in the Arabian Sea east of Aden.

In the next few days it will strengthen and move towards Oman.

But it will just skim the Omani coast and abruptly change direction and hit the Pakistan coast at Karachi on Friday evening.

Nilofar about to make landfall at Sind. October 31,2014. Early morning

The mercy is that when cyclone Nilofar changes direction on October 29, it will weaken slightly. But even then it will hammer Karachi with 100+ Kph winds.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Sind in October end.

The GFS forecast says the tropical cyclone will hit Karachi. The JTWC differs slightly. It says the target will be the Gujarat coast at Kutch.

We tend to go with the GFS forecast.

Karachi, watch out. Nilofar is not going to be soft, gentle and feminine.

Satellite image of Nilofar taken today (Sunday)

JTWC LATEST FORECAST: 0900 HRS GMT, JUNE 12: Cyclone To Break Up Mid Sea On June 15: Won't Reach Oman

The JTWC in its latest forecast issued at 0900 hrs, June 12, 2014 (Today) has astounding news! Nanauk is not going to reach Oman. It will weaken in to a low pressure area on June 15, Sunday.

If this happens it is good news for India and Pakistan. A low pressure will bring a lot of rainfall in these areas (Provided of course if the remnants of the storm drift back. We shall have to analyse that later.)

PRESENT POSITION

120900Z (JUNE 12, 0900 HRS UTC) POSITION NEAR 18.3N 64.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Latest image of tropical storm Nanauk: Image taken at 0900 hrs, GMT, June 12, 2014

Latest JTWC Update Says Nanauk To Hit Oman June 16, 2014

The JTWC in its latest Nanauk Cyclone update (June 12, 3 AM GMT) says the storm will hit Oman a day late. On June 16 morning. It will the island of Masirah.

The BBC in a weather bulletin says that Nanauk is heading to Oman for now but we will keep a close eye on what happens next.

Our feeling exactly. Nanauk is a a very devious unpredictable storm. The ECMWF model says it will head towards Pakistan and break up before contact.

Let us wait and watch. Anything might happen.

Latest Prediction JTWC Path/Track Cyclone 02A (Nanauk)

The JTWC has issued its latest update on cyclone 02A presently hovering around in the Arabian Sea.

It says final destination is the same, Oman. Only the cyclone might hit a little later. Morning instead of early morning of June 15, Sunday, 2014. The predicted intensity is even more. Nanauk is going to be one big bad boy.

This bulletin issued at 9 AM, June 11 GMT, 2014.

By the way, the Indian Met. Dept. has finally given the name NANAUK to the cyclone! AT LAST!

Latest JTWC Cyclone Path/Track Graphic: Issued 3.30 AM Today

According to the latest bulletin by the JTWC for tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk? When?) the storm is very much on. 

It says, "TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 553 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS."

But the bulletin admits that," THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY."

PRESENT POSITION (AT 9 AM GMT, JUNE 10, 2014) NEAR 15.7N 68.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

The JTWC says the sustained winds presently are 40 knots, that is 74 kph. WHY IS THE IMD NOT GIVING IT THE NAME "NANAUK"?

The JTWC Predicts A Big Storm But Other Forecast Models Doubtful

The JTWC center has already declared the Arabian Sea storm as a tropical cyclone 02A. It further says that it is going to be a big storm. 

But in its bulletin it also says...

LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

Put it simply it means that few forecast models agree that the storm is going to go westward towards Oman. Also forecast models disagree on the winds this system is going to throw up. So the JTWC itself says "....Based on this, there is low confidence in the forecast".

We have wait for what the JTWC says in its further bulletins to know how things stand. Further bulletins will be issued at 9 AM, 3 PM, 9 PM today and 3 AM tomorrow (all times GMT). We will keep updating you.

What do the major forecasts say?

GFS: It says the storm will intensify for a day or two then weaken. Then it will intensify again and then weaken into a low pressure area when it touches north Oman.

ECMWF: The storm will intensify a little and go NNW towards Gujarat and dissipate in 2-3 days.

CMC: The storm will intensify a little and go near the Gujarat coast then weaken into a low pressure area which will potter around in the sea.

NAVGEM: The storm will intensify into a tropical cyclone and hit north Oman on June 14, Saturday.

So, as things stand there is confusion and disagreement on what is to become of the present Arabian Sea storm. 

This storm has really left the weatherman totally confused. Is it why the met departments of different countries are keeping mum? Silence is golden, eh!

Why this delay in naming tropical cyclone 02A as Nanauk?

Frankly, we are confused.

The rules for naming storms says that for Northern Indian Ocean the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) is responsible. And when a storm system has sustained winds in excess of 62 kph the IMD is supposed to name the tropical cyclone. Now this cyclone raging in the Arabian Sea at present has sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) since last night.

The JTWC  calls it a tropical cyclone. Then why is the IMD not giving it a name? The latest bulletin by the IMD talks about the "low pressure will intensify into a depression".

The fact is that TC-02A is already raging in the Arabian Sea and intensifying even further. We are beyond the "depression" and "deep depression". It is already a cyclone.

We are mystified.

An news item published in the Hindu a couple of hours ago says...

The US Centre (JTWC) has currently given the Arabian Sea system a ‘numbered cyclone’ (equivalent of a monsoon depression) status by giving it the tag ‘02A.’ Numbered cyclone status is penultimate step to naming a cyclone (in the instant case, it will be called Nanauk, a name suggested by Myanmar as per the naming protocol).

This does not clarify things. It seems all meaningless bureaucratic jargon.

India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale
Category	Sustained winds (3-min average)
Super Cyclonic Storm	>120 kt >222 km/h
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm	64–119 kt 118–221 km/h
Severe Cyclonic Storm	48–63 kt 88–117 km/h
Cyclonic Storm	34–47 kt 62–87 km/h
Deep Depression	28–33 kt 52–61 km/h
Depression	≤27 kt ≤51 km/h

Source: Wikipedia

JTWC Says Tropical Cyclone 02A Heading To Oman: See Path/Track

LATEST BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL CYCLONE TC-02A....
AT 100000Z,( June 10, Tuesday, 2014, 0000 hrs GMT) TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 68.8E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.

The final destination of tropical cyclone 02A seems to be Oman! The JTWC has issued a predicted path/track for Cyclone Nanauk....

XWF-JTWC Prediction Map: Expected path/track of tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk)

SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE
CLICK ON THE MAP ANYWHERE TO KNOW WIND SPEED

NANAUK HAS FORMED! Tropical Depression 02A Turned Into Tropical Cyclone 02A Last Night 10 PM GMT

Sat. image of Arabian Sea tropical cyclone 02A taken 2 hours ago at 3 AM GMT, June 10, 2014

The depression in the Arabian Sea has turned into a tropical cyclone last night (June 9, 2014) at 10 PM GMT. says the JTWC. The JTWC has named it 02A.

The criteria for naming a tropical cyclone is that it should throw up sustained winds in excess of 62 Kph. The JTWC says that the system in the Arabian Sea had sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) last night at 10 PM GMT.

So the Arabian Sea tropical cyclone has formed. So we can expect the storm being name NANAUK soon.

IT WILL BE A MASSIVE STORM. JTWC WARNS THAT ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE NORMAL WINDS WILL BE AN AWESOME 130 KPH. MAY GUST UP TO A DEVASTATING 158 KPH.

The JTWC has given the track and predicted path and the expected winds speeds.....The speeds are given in knots (KT). 1 knot=1.85 kph

 FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z (June 10, 1200 hrs UTC) --- 15.9N 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.5N 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.9N 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.3N 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 17.9N 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 18.3N 61.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 18.6N 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

Satellie image of cyclone 02A issued by JTWC 2330 hrs UTC, June 9, 2014

SEETHE CYCLONE LIVE
CLICK ON THE MAP ANYWHERE TO KNOW THE WIND SPEED THERE

JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Issues Arabian Sea Tropical Storm Alert!

This is what the JTWC (The godfather of all storm trackers worldwide) said in its latest bulletin issued June 9, 2014 1330 hrs UTC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.

 NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
-----------------------------
We stand by our earlier forecast and warnings. It is going to be a bigger strom than expected. It is expected to hit Oman coast near the town of Khaluf on Friday 13, 2014.

More updates follow.....

Latest JTWC FORECAST (May 12, 2.30 PM IST) For MAHASEN Says It Will Be A Much Bigger Storm

MAHASEN WILL HIT BANGLADESH COAST NEAR CHITTAGONG ON MAY 16, 2013. VERY HEAVY WINDS WILL LASH THE BANGLADESH COAST.

We had said earlier that there is a difference in how the IMD and the JTWC predict the future of Mahasen cyclone. The latest JTWC bulletin (issued today at 2.30 PM, IST) says Mahsen will be bigger storm than what IMD (and most media) says. IMD says the maximum wind speeds Mahasen will throw up will be 55-65 kmph. JTWC says the maximum speeds will be an astounding 150 kmph.

Below is a gist of what the latest JTWC forecast says....

TC 01B (MAHASEN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS..... IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD..... THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE.

JTWC PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS AND POSITION OF MAHASEN: (1 Knot= 1.852 Kmph)

PRESENT: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KNOTS, GUSTS 055 KNOTS

 MAY 12 1800 HRS UTC --- 10.8N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KNOTS, GUSTS 070 KNOTS

MAY 13, 0600 UTC --- 11.8N 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KNOTS, GUSTS 075 KNOTS

MAY 13, 1800 UTC --- 13.0N 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KNOTS, GUSTS 080 KNOTS

MAY 14, 0600 UTC --- 14.3N 86.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KNOTS, GUSTS 085 KNOTS

MAY 15, 0600UTC --- 17.0N 88.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KNOTS, GUSTS 100 KNOTS

 MAY 16, 0600UTC --- 20.4N 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KNOTS, GUSTS 085 KNOTS

MAY 17, 0600 UTC --- 23.7N 94.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KNOTS, GUSTS 050 KNOTS

Latest May 12, 2013, 3.30 PM) Forecasted Path of MAHASEN

CYCLONE "MAHASEN" LATEST UPDATE: 1.00 PM, MAY 12, 2013:INDIAN MET SAYS WEAKER, JTWC SAYS BIGGER

Rainfall Prediction Map: Mahasen Cyclone

There seems to slight difference in opinion between the two main expert forecasters for cyclone MAHASEN.

The Indian Met Department (IMD) says Mahasen has weakened and will remain a weak storm (65-75 Kmph) till it makes landfall on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. IMD says Mahasen will slip between cyclone strength when it makes landfall on early morning May 17, 2013 (IST).

JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says Mahasen will be a much stronger storm. Touching 155 kmph on May 16, 2013. JTWC says ground zero will be Chittagong, May 17 early morning.

We will keep giving you the latest updates.