The JTWC Says Cyclone Ashobaa Has Already Formed: Will Hit Visakhapatnam In 3 Days

The forecast track of Cyclone Ashobaa according to the JTWC

The JTWC in its latest bulletin says Cyclone Ashobaa {Tropical Storm 5B] has already formed in the Bay of Bengal. It lies 1000 south of Kolkata. Its maximum winds at present are 65 Kph gusting up to 85 Kph. That qualifies it to be a cyclone. But we will have to wait for the IMD to christen it Ashobaa.

The cyclone will not be a very powerful storm. When it impacts Visakhapatnam on Saturday [November 9, 2014] winds will be about 65-85 Kph. But very heavy rainfall is expected in Andhra Pradesh then.

There is some confusion about Cyclone Ashobaa. The JTWC says it has already formed. The GFS forecast says it will form later on November 10, 2014, and hit the Andhra coast on November 12. The GFS forecast says the storm will be much bigger. We have already written about it in an earlier post. The GFS says the present depression in the Bay will fizzle out. The cyclone will come later. An intensification of a low pressure area from the South China Sea.

We will check the latest GFS forecast and confirm what the situation is.

Cyclone Ashobaa Update Nov 2, 2014: Target Odisha-Andhra Border Coast: November 9: 2014

LATEST UPDATE: NOVEMBER 2, 4 PM [IST]: LATEST GFS  FORECAST SAY THE EXPECTED STORM WILL BE STILL BORN. IT WILL REMAIN JUST A LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS MYANMAR. WE SHALL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF CYCLONE ASHOBAA

The little expected cyclone Ashobaa  in the Bay of Bengal seems to have changed its mind. Now it wants to enter India at the Andhra-Odisha border areas near Srikakulam on November 9, 2014 morning [IST].

As we have said earlier this storm will be a smaller storm. Winds of 60-80 Kph. There is still a week to go. Who knows Ashobaa might be still-born. Or it might turn out something bigger.

Keep coming to the site for latest updates.