The JTWC Predicts A Big Storm But Other Forecast Models Doubtful

The JTWC center has already declared the Arabian Sea storm as a tropical cyclone 02A. It further says that it is going to be a big storm. 

But in its bulletin it also says...

LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

Put it simply it means that few forecast models agree that the storm is going to go westward towards Oman. Also forecast models disagree on the winds this system is going to throw up. So the JTWC itself says "....Based on this, there is low confidence in the forecast".

We have wait for what the JTWC says in its further bulletins to know how things stand. Further bulletins will be issued at 9 AM, 3 PM, 9 PM today and 3 AM tomorrow (all times GMT). We will keep updating you.

What do the major forecasts say?

GFS: It says the storm will intensify for a day or two then weaken. Then it will intensify again and then weaken into a low pressure area when it touches north Oman.

ECMWF: The storm will intensify a little and go NNW towards Gujarat and dissipate in 2-3 days.

CMC: The storm will intensify a little and go near the Gujarat coast then weaken into a low pressure area which will potter around in the sea.

NAVGEM: The storm will intensify into a tropical cyclone and hit north Oman on June 14, Saturday.

So, as things stand there is confusion and disagreement on what is to become of the present Arabian Sea storm. 

This storm has really left the weatherman totally confused. Is it why the met departments of different countries are keeping mum? Silence is golden, eh!

Low pressure area to form in south Arabian Sea today. Birth of Cyclone NANAUK?

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS ON JUNE 8, 2014

The much dreaded low pressure area will form in the southern Arabian Sea on Sunday, June 8, 2014. Why I say dreaded is because such a system forming at this time of the year usually means trouble. Read that as a big bad cyclone.

I write this update with some confidence because three forecasts, GFS, CMC and NAVGEM confirm the formation of the low pressure area.

CMC and NAVGEM say outright that cyclone Nanauk is coming. The dates differ. NAVGEM says the cyclone is going to hit Oman on June 13, 2014. CMC gives a latter date.

The more trusted GFS model confirms the formation of a low pressure area but does not confirm that it will turn into a cyclone. Let us see what it says later.

June 11, 2014. The NAVGEM forecast model shows cyclone Nanauk hurtling towards Oman. 

Two Models Say: The Indian Ocean May Well Throw Up A Tropical Storm In First Week Of June

As we said earlier the southern Arabian Sea is in ferment. Two forecast models say the mass of clouds will throw up a tropical storm.

The CMC model says that a low pressure area will form in the southern Arabian Sea between the Horn Of Africa and Sri Lanka on June 1, 2014. This will then over the next few days intensify into a massive cyclone. It is expected to move in a WNW direction. It is the direction of northern Yemen-Southern Oman border. We have talked about the CMC forecast earlier.

The NAVGEM model says a low pressure area will form in the same area (8 Degrees North, 65 Degrees East) On June 2, 2014. What happens next? Latest (May 29, 2014, 1500 Hrs.) forecast from NAVGEM says it is going to be a full blown cyclone which may go anywhere. But it is generally agreed that the model is about 40% accurate. We will keep a close watch and keep you updated.

The god of all forecast models, the GFS, does not support these predictions. For now. Our hunch is the storm, weak or strong, will head towards the Gulf of Aden. Let us wait for further developments.

The big storm as predicted by the CMC Model on June 3, 2014. Seems to be a big storm.

The NAVGEM Model says it is going to be a full-blooded cyclone. Latest forecast map (May 29, 2014,  1500 Hrs.) shows the predicted position on June 5, 2014.

Satellite image of the Arabian Sea taken at 00.00 Hrs. GMT, May 30, 2014