Extreme Weather, Monsoon, Cyclone Possibilities May (20-31) 2016 Updates

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING IN KARNATAKA NOW, 1730 HRS IST

Satellite image reveals very heavy downpour in Karnataka, near Bangalore and Mysore. Also at Tiruppur. Showers also in coastal Andhra.

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING CATS AND DOGS IN ANDHRA NOW

Highlight of today is the localised heavy rainfall in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh since today morning. It has been raining heavily in the area for hours. This is because of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the area. This is going to hover around Telangana, Chattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh bringing localised thunderstorms.

Also the map below the satellite image shows where and how much (inches) will it rain till today, May 28, midnight IST 

MAY 27, 2016

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED IN JUNE

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED 

The IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) suspects that the onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast may not happen even during June 5 to 10 despite some of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle falling into place by then.

It remains to be seen if, as is being forecast by some models, a cyclonic circulation potentially taking shape off the Konkan coast and moving away generally towards Oman could prove the disruptor.

Other likely disruptive features include a cyclone (typhoon) each being forecast to erupt over the West Indian Ocean and the North-West Pacific during this week and the next.

From BUSINESSLINE (http://goo.gl/uBCfUA)

MAY 27, 2016

GLOBAL EFFECTS OF EL NINO, LA NIÑA 

El Niño died this May. It had been strong since two years. And India suffered as a result. It had two consecutive lousy monsoons in 2014, 2015.

The maps show the effects of the two phenomena. Hopefully with La Niña on the ascendancy, India will have a good monsoon in 2016.

MAY 27, 2016

BAD MAN EL NINO IS DEAD. MONSOONS WILL ENVIGORATE IN JULY 

Good riddance to El Niño. Most international climate agencies say it is dead. They also say La Niña, the fairy godmother for a good monsoon is making a comeback.

But the ill effects of ENSO, El Niño Southern Oscillation, will be felt on monsoon rains till June. Rainfall activity will be curbed as a result. We talked of the dismal CFS forecast till June 22 yesterday.

But once La Niña gets going there may be flooding rains from July till October in India, Pakistan and even the Middle East (Oman, UAE) as a monsoon spillover effect. Long live La Niña!

The CPC diagram shows the dead of El Niño and the rise of La Niña.

MAY 26, 2016

CFS HAS WORRYING NEWS ABOUT MONSOON RAINS TILL JUNE 22, 2016

Just a glance at the latest weekly rainfall forecast from May 25 to June 22, 2016 by the CFS model gives us reason to be gloomy. Most of India barring some areas is expected to receive below average rainfall.

Forecasts by western climate forecast agencies and the Indian Met. has led us to expect a bumper monsoon this year. Well, the start at least is going to be inauspicious if one looks at CFS data.

In the forecast maps for next four weeks the green color denotes above average rainfall. The ominous orange color shows below average rains. The white color denotes average precipitation at the place at this time of the year.

Looking at the maps we gather that barring Gujarat, Bihar, Uttarakhand, North Eastern states, some parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh there will be poor rainfall. The rain deficit is particularly high in western and southern India especially Kerala.

What is even gloomier is that both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal show vast stretches of orange. Meaning rainfall activity is poor even in the seas.

Hope we have bumper July rains. Or a drenching depression or two would be welcome (There is a possibility of a depression near the Andhra coast on June 4).

Rains in June are expected to be poor. They are expected to dramatically rise in July-August as the good effects of the unlamented demise of El Niño start kicking in.

MAY 26, 2016

GFS INDICATES TWO STORM POSSIBILITIES AROUND JUNE 10

The first is a depression affecting southern China on the Hong Kong-Hainan coast in the South China Sea. Later GFS data says it's going to be a full blown tropical cyclone (Typhoon NEPARTAK) that may smash through Taiwan on June 10-11, 2016.

The second is a ominous strengthening circulation in the central Arabian Sea at the same time. That is June 10.

Mind you these are just possibilities at present.

MAY 25, 2016

WHY ARE NO CYCLONES FORMING NOW?

We wonder. The time is ripe. Pre- monsoon period. There is an upper air circulation in central Arabian Sea. Why is it not transforming into a tropical cyclone? (Latest GFS data hints at a depression hitting Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7, 2016).

The answer is because of MJO, MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. At the time of ROANU the MJO was passing through eastern Indian Ocean. Presently it is around Indonesia and withering away.

The MJO gives impetus to existing stormy conditions and favours cyclone formation.

MAY 25, 2016

RAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO INDIA 

Not with a bang engined by a tropical depression or cyclone but gradually. Kerala is already experiencing showers. By month end Mumbai and Gujarat will receive light rainfall. Kerala, Karnataka and southern Andhra will be the wettest in the near future.

For Kerala the IMD warns.....

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Heavy rainfall is most likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala from 27th May 2016 till the morning of 29th May 2016.

27th May:  Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.28th May : Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

MAY 24, 2016

RAINS COMING TO INDIAN WEST COAST

The monsoons are slowly building up in the Arabian Sea. There is a lot of instability which will spread in the coming days and bring rains to Kerala. By May 28 rainfall activity will increase in coastal Kerala and Karnataka as the Arabian Sea will push in precipitation.

Analysis of forecast data reveals both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will remain very unstable. This always happens prior to the onset of monsoons. Numerous upper level circulations will develop.

Some models are hinting at cyclone KYANT developing in the Bay of Bengal around June 1. But it is too premature to take it seriously.

Anything is possible in the coming few weeks. We are closely observing and will keep you posted of significant developments.

Below is a map showing total precipitation (in inches) till May 28, 2016. 

MAY 23, 2016

IT ALL STARTS FROM HERE.....

Just look at the latest satellite image of central Arabian Sea below. There is an intense cluster of thunderstorms. An oasis in a rainless sea. This system over the next few days will move east to the Indian coast.

Rains in Kerala will start. Then consolidate. They will then spread to coastal Karnataka. The entire sea will be full of rain systems by end of May.

It is from these expanding area of thunderstorms that the GFS forecast model expects a depression or cyclone will be spawned in early June.

Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

MAY 23, 2016

GFS SHOWS ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ON JUNE 7. 2016

The Global Forecast System in its 1800 UTC yesterday's data is indicating a big cyclone just south of the Gujarat coast on June 7, 2016.

Let us see if this prediction sustains. It expects the storm to start off as a low pressure area on June 4 near Karnataka coast.

Latest GFS data shows only a low pressure area on May 8.

The prediction by the GFS will have to sustain itself if we are to take it with any seriousness. Moreover it should be supported by other models.

The European model hints at a low forming on the Odisha coast on May 29.

Confusing state of affairs.

We shall watch the situation.

MAY 22, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS HEAVY RAINS ON COASTAL MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT BY JUNE 5

Most forecast models are not predicting extreme weather events in the coming few days for South Asia and Middle East. But the CFS has some cheering news. It predicts a heavy rain system bringing precipitation to coasts of western India and Sindh between May 29 and June 6.

It predicts upto 6 inches of rain in some places of Maharashtra and Gujarat. And about an inch or two in Gujarat and coastal Sindh. See the forecast map below.

The CFS forecast is supported by the GFS ensemble forecast. See the map below.

The map has some disappointing news too. If we believe this forecast then the map shows very weak below normal monsoon activity elsewhere. See the rampant orange colour? It means below average rains. The IMD has already warned of delayed onset of monsoon this year.

MAY 22, 2016

MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY BY JUNE 7, 2017

In meteorology one way to know thunderstorm activity is CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher the CAPE, greater the instability in the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is unstable, thunderstorms arise, rain happens.

Given below are CAPE maps of today and June 7, 2016. There is a dramatic increase in CAPE.

One sees great atmosphere instability (CAPE) not only in India, Pakistan but along the Oman coast , Gulf of Oman and Bay of Bengal. Only Indian southern states will have tranquil weather.

One can conclude that a lot is going to happen in the next 15 days.

The maps are based on GFS Ensemble model.

MAY 21, 2016

These clusters of thunderstorms in the Arabian Sea as shown in the latest IR satellite image need to be watched.

In the following days these will slowly move east and bring rains to the Indian west coast.

MAY 21, 2016

GFS SHOWS STORM FORMATION OFF MUMBAI JUNE 6

The latest GFS data shows a depression forming on June 6, 2016, in the Arabian Sea off the Mumbai coast. 15 days is a long long time in weather forecasting.

Let us see if the prediction sticks.

The BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) model predicts a low forming in the Arabian Sea by May end, but we have our doubts about the veracity of this model.

MAY 21, 2016

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY JUNE 4

Though NWP models do not foresee any significant storm developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming days, rainfall activity will increase substantially in the sea.

This will be because of the pre-monsoon activity. Call it whatever you will. The fact is rains are coming on India's west coast.

It will be particularly heavy in coastal Kerala and Karnataka. 30 inches of rain by June 4. The map below shows the total accumulated precipitation till June 4, 2016. The data is from NOAA's GFS forecast model. The yellow colour denotes heaviest rainfall.

The IMD sees a good chance of an Arabian Sea cyclone on May 27, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS RAINS ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY MAY END

One is not very sure of the reliability of this forecast by the Coupled Forecast System. But it foresees a heavy rain system moving north along the coast in the Arabian Sea and bringing rains to (coastal areas of) Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat by May 31, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

The Indian Meteorological Department, IMD, thinks there is 30+% chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming week, especially on May 25, 2016. Off the Gujarat coast.

Latest GFS data indicate a growing clusters of intense thunderstorms in central Arabian Sea by May 25, 2016. But none of the forecast models are hinting at a storm presently.

Cyclones CHAPALA MEGH Imminent In Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal Soon?

By XWF, October 22, 2015

Global forecast models are hinting at the possibility of the North Indian Ocean spawning 2 tropical storms in the coming days this October-November 2015.

It is not certain at this stage whether the expected systems will be depressions or tropical cyclones.

The Arabian Sea storm will arise first around October 26-27. Opinions differ as to what track path it will take. One scenario is it will hit northern Yemen around November 2. Another scenario is it makes landfall into central Oman and moves north right through the country.

The Bay of Bengal cyclone (Chapala or Megh?) will come later. It will form by October end near the northern Tamil Nadu coast and then barrel through the sea in a northeasterly direction in early November. Where it may make landfall is hard to say at this stage. Andhra, Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh or Myanmar?

One thing is certain. The North Indian Ocean is in ferment and may throw out storm systems soon.

Arabian Sea cyclone CHAPALA heads to Oman on November 2, 2015

This latest satellite image shows the mass of thunderstorms which may give birth to cyclone CHAPALA 

Cyclone CHAPALA Imminent In Arabian Sea September 18, 2015

The weak monsoon of 2015 is rapidly withdrawing from India but the North Indian Ocean is likely to spawn a tropical cyclone in the coming fortnight. Cyclone Chapala may be born off the Mumbai coast in the Arabian Sea around September 20, 2015.

One notices that in a weak monsoon year the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) throws out more tropical cyclones.

This year we had Ashobaa and the deep depression in June that drenched Gujarat. The Bay of Bengal spawned a surprising cyclone Komen in the middle of the rainy season.

The birth of upcoming cyclone Chapala will occur in the Bay of Bengal. It will start off as a innocuous low pressure area on September 12, Saturday. The system will form off the Odisha coast but will bob around in the Sea and will intensify into a deep depression near the Andhra coast,

This storm will move through peninsular India and Mumbai on September 18, 2015 bringing heavy rains to the city. The depression will then move into the Arabian Sea and then intensify into a tropical cyclone Chapala. It will move past the coast of Saurashtra and head towards Oman. If latest forecasts are to be believed it will hit north-eastern Oman on September 22-23.

We prophesy all this on the basis of the predictions by the venerable GFS system. The ECMWF too agrees that a low pressure area will form in the Bay of Bengal by September 13.  It expects the system to strengthen into either a deep depression or a tropical cyclone on September 16 and hit the Indian coast of Andhra-Odisha. Whether it hops over peninsular India into the Arabian Sea and metamorphose into a cyclone is to be seen.

In a nutshell, the latest forecast situation. The GFS says a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea. The European model predicts a deep depression off Andhra coast.

Keep in touch for the latest predictions.

TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE

The GFS model predicts heavy rains in Mumbai and Konkan coast on September 19, 2015. It also foresees the birth of a cyclone after that in the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Chances In North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) Uncertain

The chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the North Indian Ocean has receded according to latest forecasts from various models.

A cyclone or not? In the North Indian Ocean. That is the question now.

In the last few days the GFS Model had been gung-ho  about the prospect of an Arabian Sea cyclone. The Canadian CMC had supported while the European Model (ECMWF) had disagreed going so far as to say that the storm would form in the Bay of Bengal.

Come today and all the forecast models are showing flat storm less  forecasts for the North Indian Ocean. The GFS says no cyclone. The CMC says no cyclone. The ECMWF says no cyclone.

What has happened? Has the ocean turned docile? Some meteorologists say the over-active Pacific Ocean is hurling one typhoon after another (Noul, then Dolphin) and sucking off the moisture from the Indian Ocean. Going by this reasoning will the North Indian Ocean become active storm-wise after the demise of super typhoon Dolphin in a week's time? Time will tell.

In the mean time we will closely monitor the Indian Ocean and keep you updated on any incipient tropical cyclone.

Now is the time. Now is the season. Hope the Indian Ocean does not disappoint.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY. WILL IT SPAWN A STORM?

North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) To Spawn A Cyclone By May End

UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015 
The situation is confusing and volatile. The GFS forecast today denies any possible cyclone. The NAVGEM Model says a storm will form on May 13, 2015 near the Sri Lanka coast, rapidly intensify into a cyclone and hit the Andhra coast in India on May 16. The Canadian CMC Model agrees. The GFS predicts only a low pressure area. Not very reliable.

We will close watch and keep you updated. Meanwhile you can watch and monitor North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) yourselves at this link on our STORM TRACKER

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 Forecast models are throwing out confusing forecasts of a tropical cyclone developing in the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) by the end of May, 2015.

The cyclone is likely to develop around May 20-25. Where? That is not certain.

There are two possible scenarios.

First scenario is the storm develops in the Bay of Bengal of the coast of Tamil Nadu around May 20. The storm then intensifies and moves north and hits the Odisha-West Bengal coast by May 25, 2015. This may be a powerful cyclone with acentral minimum pressure of around 975 Mb.

SCENARIO 1: MAY 25. CYCLONE ASHOBAA HITS ODISHA-WEST-BENGAL COAST

Second scenario is the cyclone forms of the coast of Kerala on May 20, then moves slowly northwards along the Indian west coast and makes landfall into Gujarat on May 26, 2015.

SCENARIO 2: MAY 26. CYCLONE ASHOBAA HEADS TOWARDS GUJARAT

There are still 10-15 days to go so stating anything with certainty is well nigh impossible but it appears the North Indian Ocean is pregnant with possibilities of a tropical cyclone developing around May 20, 2015.

The time is ripe. The ocean waters are well heated to power and feed a cyclone. And May-June is the time that the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea throw out a cyclone or two.

Keep in touch for updates and for latest forecasts.

Cyclone Coming In The Arabian Sea Next Week?

Generally November goes and we think the cyclone season is over in the North Indian Ocean. But no! A big cyclone may be brewing in the Arabian Sea if latest predictions are to be believed by weather computer models.

When we saw the forecast graphs the first time, we did not believe it. A cyclone in December in the Arabian Sea? Naaah! But the fact remains a cyclone may be coming in the coming week. Oman. Pakistan. Gujarat. Wake up!

The storm (Ashobaa) will be born as a low pressure off the Indian coast at Kerala on November 25. It will drift towards the Gulf of Aden in the following days and slowly intensify. By November 29 it will be a depression with 50 Kph winds.Around November 30 it will reach maturity. It will cross the 64 Kph threshold and become a cyclone. It will be located about 1200 Kms east of the Horn of Africa.

After that it will turn direction and curve towards Oman.It will move past Oman December 1-2. It will be strongest then with winds of 100-120 Kph. Present forecasts say it will strike Kachcch (Gujarat)- Sindh area on  3rd December, 2014.

Let us make some things clear. Firstly a cyclone in the Arabian Sea in late-November-early December is rare. We feel the formation of the storm is in doubt. We have written this forecast only after repeated model forecasts confirmed the storm. To be sure we have to wait a few days more.

In conclusion, a storm is going to form off the Kerala coast around November 27-28. No doubt about that. The question is will it move westwards towards the Gulf of Aden or swing north towards Oman and intensify into a big storm?

A Bay Of Bengal Low Pressure Area Will Form On October 8, 2014

The Indian monsoons have been weak this year. Both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have been relatively calm as compared to other years. June and September-October are the times of the year when these seas churn out a tropical storm.

Well, the Bay of Bengal is going to throw out a low pressure area this October. The system will form on October 8, 2014 near the Andaman Islands and will, according to present indications, move to the Andhra coast in India and bring heavy rains on October 13, 2014.

It is to be seen if the system turns out bigger (A tropical storm?) or not.

 FORECAST MAP: The low pressure area brings rains to east coast of India on October 13, 2014

FORECAST MAP: The system is formed on October 8, 2014

Arabian Sea May Spring A Surprise: Low pressure To Form September End

The North Indian Ocean has been quiet this year except for springing Nananuk this year. Well it may spring a surprise.

There is likelihood of a low pressure area developing in southern Arabian Sea near the Maldives on September 30, 2014. Present forecasts say the system will move west and bring rains to Aden around October 7, 2014.

But anything can happen in a week. Let us see.....But, I smell a tropical cyclone here.

XWF FORECAST MAP: September 30, 2014. A low pressure area forms

 The system as seen on October 3, 2014

October 7, 2014. The low pressure area brings rains to the Horn Of Africa

Nanauk Will Not Reach Oman: Will Implode On June 15, 2014 Says JTWC

Even in the latest Nanauk cyclone bulletin (1500 hrs GMT , June 12, 2014)  the JTWC says it will not reach Oman but dissipate in the Arabian Sea itself on Sunday.

We have to see if this prognosis is supported by other forecast models. Off the hand, we feel this forecast will happen to be true.

Here is a gist of what the bulletin says in simple English.....

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 

............... WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE WEAKENED TC IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DEFLECT POLEWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION..................

Satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1200 hrs GMT today (Friday, June 13, 2014)

Cyclone Nanauk Update: To Hit Oman Coast Near Khaluf On June 13 Friday Night

June 13, 2014. Friday. Powerful Cyclone NANAUK About To Hit Oman Near Khaluf

Latest forecast for expected tropical cyclone NANAUK is that it is going to hit the north Oman coast near the town of Khaluf on the night of June 13,2014 (Friday). The island towns of Kalban and Dawwah will be worst hit.

The wind speeds when Nanauk hits Oman will be in excess of 80 Kmph. Torrential rainfall will accompany the winds.

We think the Oman authorities should wake up to the emerging hazard. I am sure the Omani Met office will be closely monitoring the situation.

We have only a week. Unless Nanauk changes its mind and moves to Pakistan or Gujarat.

A final word for those who are sceptical. Do not forget to tune in to BBC or listen to what the country's met. office has to say on Monday, June 9, 2014.

MORE ON NANAUK

Animated Path

The birth of Nanauk

Two Models Say: The Indian Ocean May Well Throw Up A Tropical Storm In First Week Of June

As we said earlier the southern Arabian Sea is in ferment. Two forecast models say the mass of clouds will throw up a tropical storm.

The CMC model says that a low pressure area will form in the southern Arabian Sea between the Horn Of Africa and Sri Lanka on June 1, 2014. This will then over the next few days intensify into a massive cyclone. It is expected to move in a WNW direction. It is the direction of northern Yemen-Southern Oman border. We have talked about the CMC forecast earlier.

The NAVGEM model says a low pressure area will form in the same area (8 Degrees North, 65 Degrees East) On June 2, 2014. What happens next? Latest (May 29, 2014, 1500 Hrs.) forecast from NAVGEM says it is going to be a full blown cyclone which may go anywhere. But it is generally agreed that the model is about 40% accurate. We will keep a close watch and keep you updated.

The god of all forecast models, the GFS, does not support these predictions. For now. Our hunch is the storm, weak or strong, will head towards the Gulf of Aden. Let us wait for further developments.

The big storm as predicted by the CMC Model on June 3, 2014. Seems to be a big storm.

The NAVGEM Model says it is going to be a full-blooded cyclone. Latest forecast map (May 29, 2014,  1500 Hrs.) shows the predicted position on June 5, 2014.

Satellite image of the Arabian Sea taken at 00.00 Hrs. GMT, May 30, 2014

A TROPICAL STORM (PHAILIN?) TO STRIKE SOUTH OMAN ON MAY 25, 2013

The North Indian Ocean seems to throw out tropical storms by the handfuls this year. After the weak MAHASEN in the Bay of Bengal, forecasts say a new storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea.

Southern Arabian Sea has seen a mass of restless clouds since a few days. This system of rain-bearing clouds are going to spawn a storm around May 21, 2013.

GROUND ZERO: MAY 26, 2013

It will start very innocuously in the Arabian Sea, 1000 miles east of the Horn of Africa. A low pressure area will develop. This system will slowly drift NNW gaining strength gradually. Within a day or two it will churn up winds of about 40-50 kph. A depression.

This depression will keeping moving towards the south Oman coast gaining strength all the time. As it nears the coast on May 24-25, 2013, it will be cyclone strength. Winds of about 80-90 kph.

The tropical storm will hit the south Oman coast between Duqm and Sawqirah, on May 25-26, 2013, accompanied with strong winds and very heavy rains.

Since the maximum winds are forecasted to be about 80-90 kph one can safely label it a cyclone.

May be PHAILIN  cyclone is coming.

EXPECTED PATH OF ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM MAY 2013: MAY 22-MAY 26, 2013