Nanauk Was A Powerful Storm (Final Path Of Nanauk)

NASA  in its postmortem  of Cyclone Nanauk says it was a powerful cyclone throwing up storms 16 kms high in the atmosphere.

Tropical storm Nanauk formed west of India on June 10, 2014 and since then moved around towards the north west quadrant of the Arabian Sea. NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) satellite found that Nanauk contained powerful storms dropping rain at a rate of over 247.3 mm/ 9.7 inches per hour when viewed on June 11, 2014 at 1549 UTC (11:49 a.m. EDT).

At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland an analysis of rainfall from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) were overlaid on a 1530 UTC (11:30 a.m. EDT) enhanced infrared image from the European Space Agency's METEOSAT-7 satellite. TRMM PR data were used to create a 3-D view that showed that Nanauk contained powerful towering thunderstorms that were reaching heights of up to 16.8 km (10.4 miles). 


Friday the thirteenth proved unlucky for Nanauk as environmental conditions worsened and tore the storm apart. By 09:00 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued their final warning on the tropical cyclone. At that time, maximum sustained winds were near 35 knots (40 mph/65 kph) and weakening quickly. The storm's last official position was at 21.3 north latitude and 64.3 east longitude, about 285 nautical miles (328 miles/528 km) southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. At that time the dissipating storm was moving to the north at 9 knots (10 mph/~17 kph).

Source NASA

The path/track of cyclone Nanauk

Cyclone Nanauk Is Breaking Up Fast! Will Disintegrate In 24 Hours!

Infra-red satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1000 hrs GMT today (June 13, 2014) shows the dying storm well

The JTWC says in its latest Cyclone Nanauk bulletin that the storm is dissipating rapidly. In 24 hours it will be below cyclone strength.

Here is what it says.....

130900Z (JUNE 13, 2014 0900 AM GMT) POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NOW - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRN CEN. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

Infra-Red Satellite Image of Nanauk at 1200 hrs GMT, June 13, 2014, Friday

Nanauk Will Not Reach Oman: Will Implode On June 15, 2014 Says JTWC

Even in the latest Nanauk cyclone bulletin (1500 hrs GMT , June 12, 2014)  the JTWC says it will not reach Oman but dissipate in the Arabian Sea itself on Sunday.

We have to see if this prognosis is supported by other forecast models. Off the hand, we feel this forecast will happen to be true.

Here is a gist of what the bulletin says in simple English.....

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 

............... WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE WEAKENED TC IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DEFLECT POLEWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION..................

Satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1200 hrs GMT today (Friday, June 13, 2014)

Latest Satellite Image Of Cyclone Nanauk (June 11, 2014, 9 AM GMT)

This is the latest IR satellite image of cyclone Nanauk taken at 9 AM GMT Today, June 11, Wednesday, 2014. Looks like a monster.

How the cyclone Will Move: Wednesday to Saturday (Hits Oman)

Here is how we forecast how tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk: Its going to be severe cyclonic storm) will move from today, Wednesday till Saturday (June 14,2014).

Its going to be a big storm. The purple color in the images indicates speed of more than 50 knots (More than 93 kph)

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Cyclone Nanauk Likely To Hit North Oman Coat On Sunday, June 15, 2014 Morning

CYCLONE NANAUK UPDATE JUNE 11, 2014, WEDNESDAY, 0300 HRS GMT

As we have said earlier cyclone Nanauk in the Arabian Sea is going to be quite a monster storm. JTWC estimates that on June 12 and June 13 the normal winds in the storm will be a whopping 150 kph. They will gust up to a devastating 185 kph.

From Wednesday to Saturday morning it is going to be a severe cyclonic storm. It will weaken slightly to a cyclonic storm when it will be about to touch Oman on Sunday. But even then it will pack very strong winds, torrential rainfall and tall waves on the coast.

The worst hit will be the island towns of Kalban and Dawwah.

We hope the Oman Met Dept has duly warned the public at large of the upcoming hazard. Other models suggest the storm may come earlier.

Satellite image of TC-02A (Nanauk) taken at 3 AM GMT today, June 11, 2014

Latest GFS Forecast: Arabian Sea Storm TC-02A (Nanauk) To Hit Oman Late Evening June 14,2014

Latest forecast by the GFS model says it is going to be a big cyclone. In the map it is about to hit Oman on June 14, 2014

Even the GFS forecast in its latest update says that Nanauk will be bigger than earlier expected. While  JTWC says it will hit Oman on June 15, 2014, GFS says it is going to hit Oman earlier on June 14 late evening June 14, 2014.

Be advised that even when it hits the coast the cyclone will be strong with winds at more than 75 kmph, gusting at 90 kmph. Or much more.

It is time the Oman authorities start preparing for the worst. There are only three days left. Nanauk is likely to be a severe cyclonic storm.

The Storm Will Weaken When It Touches North Oman On June 13, 2014

Latest GFS forecast says the present tropical storm in the Arabian Sea will weaken and reach the shore of Oman near Khaluf as a low pressure on Friday, June 13, 2014.

In the next 36 hours it will intensify but then gradually start weakening. It will grow stronger again but start dissipating by the time it touches the Oman coast. North Oman near the town of Khaluf and coastal areas will get most rainfall. Muscat may get a shower or two.

We think it is still too early to say anything. The forecast models differ in what they predict. The countrys' met. depts. are largely quiet.

The fact is, no one knows for sure what is going to happen. Will the storm grow into a massive storm? Will it just break up in a couple of days mid sea? Or will head to Gujarat? Or to Pakistan? Or will it's remnants drift to Oman?

No one is sure.

Interestingly the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecasting System) agrees with the GFS prediction. Remains of the storm will touch Oman on Friday 13, 2014.

The NAEFS agrees with the GFS. The storm will be strongest on Wednesday, June 11, 2014

-----------------

This what the Oman Met Officials said according to a report in the Times of Oman 5 hours ago.......

Muscat: A low pressure area has formed in the eastern Arabian Sea, a senior official of the Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) said on Monday, adding it was being monitored.

"No direct impact is expected on Oman's skies in the next 96 hours," he claimed.

The low pressure may gain strength due to the presence of a very warm pool of water over the next 36 to 48 hours and make a landfall on Friday or Saturday morning. "But we are not sure about the direction it will take," the official said.

This comes after some social networking sites said that a low pressure formed over the Arabian Sea is going to intensify into a big cyclone and will hit Oman coast on June 14.

"Recent weather charts show there is good chance of formation of a tropical depression near the Indian coast during the next 48 hours," the DGMAN said in a statement.

The official stressed that the DGMAN closely tracks the weather condition on a daily basis. The DGMAN has urged the citizens and residents to follow only official versions of weather forecasts.

"People should verify information and follow daily weather broadcasts," the official added.

---------------------------------------

Latest satellite Infra-Red Image of the Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone

The JTWC Predicts A Big Storm But Other Forecast Models Doubtful

The JTWC center has already declared the Arabian Sea storm as a tropical cyclone 02A. It further says that it is going to be a big storm. 

But in its bulletin it also says...

LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

Put it simply it means that few forecast models agree that the storm is going to go westward towards Oman. Also forecast models disagree on the winds this system is going to throw up. So the JTWC itself says "....Based on this, there is low confidence in the forecast".

We have wait for what the JTWC says in its further bulletins to know how things stand. Further bulletins will be issued at 9 AM, 3 PM, 9 PM today and 3 AM tomorrow (all times GMT). We will keep updating you.

What do the major forecasts say?

GFS: It says the storm will intensify for a day or two then weaken. Then it will intensify again and then weaken into a low pressure area when it touches north Oman.

ECMWF: The storm will intensify a little and go NNW towards Gujarat and dissipate in 2-3 days.

CMC: The storm will intensify a little and go near the Gujarat coast then weaken into a low pressure area which will potter around in the sea.

NAVGEM: The storm will intensify into a tropical cyclone and hit north Oman on June 14, Saturday.

So, as things stand there is confusion and disagreement on what is to become of the present Arabian Sea storm. 

This storm has really left the weatherman totally confused. Is it why the met departments of different countries are keeping mum? Silence is golden, eh!

NANAUK HAS FORMED! Tropical Depression 02A Turned Into Tropical Cyclone 02A Last Night 10 PM GMT

Sat. image of Arabian Sea tropical cyclone 02A taken 2 hours ago at 3 AM GMT, June 10, 2014

The depression in the Arabian Sea has turned into a tropical cyclone last night (June 9, 2014) at 10 PM GMT. says the JTWC. The JTWC has named it 02A.

The criteria for naming a tropical cyclone is that it should throw up sustained winds in excess of 62 Kph. The JTWC says that the system in the Arabian Sea had sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) last night at 10 PM GMT.

So the Arabian Sea tropical cyclone has formed. So we can expect the storm being name NANAUK soon.

IT WILL BE A MASSIVE STORM. JTWC WARNS THAT ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE NORMAL WINDS WILL BE AN AWESOME 130 KPH. MAY GUST UP TO A DEVASTATING 158 KPH.

The JTWC has given the track and predicted path and the expected winds speeds.....The speeds are given in knots (KT). 1 knot=1.85 kph

 FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z (June 10, 1200 hrs UTC) --- 15.9N 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.5N 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.9N 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.3N 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 17.9N 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 18.3N 61.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 18.6N 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

Satellie image of cyclone 02A issued by JTWC 2330 hrs UTC, June 9, 2014

SEETHE CYCLONE LIVE
CLICK ON THE MAP ANYWHERE TO KNOW THE WIND SPEED THERE

What Weather Site "Accuweather" And "The Hindu" Say About The Arabian Sea Storm

WHAT THESE GUYS ARE SAYING NOW WE HAD PREDICTED A WEEK BACK.....THE GUIDING PHILOSOPHY OF OUR SITE IS "WE FORETELL BIG STORMS....................ALWAYS THE FIRST TO DO IT"

------------------------------------------------

This came on the Accuweather site a few hours ago

Watching For Development In The Indian Ocean 6/8/2014 8:25:13 PM

 As of Monday morning, EDT, an area of low pressure was centered about 550 miles southwest of Mumbai, India. Satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection along with a low-level circulation. Also, water temperatures are warm and along with low vertical wind shear, this system may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. If this does develop, the movement of this storm would be to the northwest and towards the coastline of Oman.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist John Schneider.

--------------------------------
THE HINDU

This article is a day old and the prediction may seem stale.

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JUNE 8

The India Met Department has extended by another day the watch for a low-pressure in the Arabian Sea as the monsoon remained struck along the Kozhikode-Coimbatore-Cuddalore alignment on Sunday. Formation of the ‘low’ will cause monsoon flows to rush and converge and, in the process, help push the northern limit along the Karnataka-Goa-Konkan belt on the West coast. To be located in east-central Arabian Sea, the ‘low’ is forecast to rapidly intensify into a cyclone (to be called Nanauk, a name contributed by Myanmar) due to the presence of a very warm pool of waters. This pool extends to the west and north-west towards the Arabian Peninsula, where the system is forecast to head before making a landfall over Oman by Saturday (June 14). A US-based forecaster said the cyclone would be posited equidistant from India’s west coast and Oman on the other side by midnight of Wednesday. Until such time, the monsoon would be active on the west coast. By Thursday, the cyclone may flare up one last time before closing in on Oman coast. Landfall may take place on Friday morning.

Arabian Sea Tropical Storm To Form Today: Likely To Dissipate On Thursday

Satellite image of the Arabian Sea at 0300 hrs GMT, June 9, 2014

ARABIAN SEA UPDATE: JUNE 9, 0330 AM GMT

Cyclone Nanauk is expected to form today off the Goa coast. The system even now has winds gusting up to 62 Kph.

It will intensify into a tropical storm Nanauk (If IMD gives it the name) and move north towards Gujarat. On Thursday, June 12, 2014 it will disintegrate.

Present forecasts say it will have no or little impact on Oman. Though the NAVGEM says the system will reach Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014 bringing strong winds and rain.

The system is now located at 14 degrees North and 68 degrees East.

See The Cyclone LIVE

The NAVGEM forecast model says the system will reach north Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014

June 10, 2014.Tuesday. The system at its height

The storm is expected to be a weak storm. My guess is that IMD will term it a deep depression and not name it tropical cyclone Nanauk. Though forecasts say it will throw up winds (sustained winds) well in excess of 62 Kph.

After forming near the Goa coast it will intensify and move in a NNW direction. On June 12, 2014 it will burnout a few hundred kms from the Gujarat coast.

JTWC says the possibility of the system turning into a "significant tropical storm" is medium. In other words the chance is 50-50.

IMD WAKES UP

This is what the IMD says in its 0530 AM (IST) bulletin....

The east-west shear zone along latitude 12.0°N with embedded cyclonic circulation over eastcentral & neighbourhood extending upto mid-tropospheric level persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours and intensify thereafter

The Mid-day Bulletin, June 9, 2014......

A low pressure area has formed over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. It would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

Arabian Sea Storm, June, 2014: Will It Happen? Or Not?

Nanauk According to NAVGEM: The model predicts an even bigger storm. The map is NAVGEM forecast map: 500mb Heights/Relative Vorticity: A good indicator of a bad storm.

The much awaited tropical cyclone, Nanauk. Will it happen in the next few days? Or nothing will happen. No cyclone. Just a miserable little low pressure area (It brings a lot of rainfall).

A doubting lady/gentleman just wrote to us anonymously. The gist of the message was: "You say the cyclone will form tomorrow. Then why is the IMD saying nothing? Not mentioning even the existing low pressure area in south Arabian Sea. You are bluffing."

That is how matters stand now.

On the one side are the naysayers. No cyclone. It includes formidable folks like the IMD, JTWC, BBC (Met office). They have said nothing about any possible storm.

On the other side are yours truly, and also a whole legion who believe that a cyclone is coming. And two reliable weather forecast models: The GFS and US Navy's NAVGEM.

Yes, even the NAVGEM model agrees with the GFS prediction about the formation, path and final destination. Only that the NAVGEM says it is going to be even a nastier storm.

Nanauk According To NAVGEM: 10 m wind speed forecast map. If one goes by this the winds will be howling at 100 Kph (The dark color in the center) on June 12, 2014

Latest Predicted Path Of The Storm
See The Cyclone LIVE

ARABIAN SEA STORM UPDATE 1100 AM GMT, SUNDAY, JUNE 8:Nanauk Will Form Tomorrow, Hit Oman Friday:Track Path

Animated XWF  Forecast Map: Cyclonic Storm Oman, June 9, 2014 to June 13, 2014

See The Cyclone LIVE

Latest Arabian Sea Update: 5:00 PM GMT: No Cyclone To Form, Just A Low Pressure

The low pressure area will bring rains to central coastal Oman on June 13, 2014, Thursday

ARABIAN SEA UPDATE: JUNE 7, 0500 HRS GMT

Latest forecasts say the low pressure which has formed in the Arabian Sea is not expected to grow into a tropical storm.

It will drift around in the Arabian Sea and then touch the coast of central Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014 bringing some rainfall there.

For the present the cyclone warning which we had issued is withdrawn.

We will keep a close watch and keep you informed.

We repeat. Latest forecasts say no cyclone is expected to form in the Arabian Sea in the next few days. The existing low pressure area will not transform into a tropical cyclone.

See The Cyclone LIVE

CYCLONE WARNING! NANAUK WILL HIT OMAN JUNE 11, 2014 WEDNESDAY

CYCLONE WARNING FOR IMMINENT ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM

LATEST CYCLONE UPDATE: 1230 HRS GMT JUNE 7, 2014

Cyclone Nanauk is coming. No doubt about that. The present low pressure  in SW Arabian Sea will move in a NE direction and strengthen into tropical cyclone NANAUK on June 9, 2014. Monday. That is day after tomorrow.

Then it will move in a NW direction , then in a westerly direction. It will hit the central Oman coast on June 11, 2014. Wednesday.

We had said in an earlier update that the expected storm would be weak. But after studying latest GFS model forecasts we have to change our advisory.

IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE A BIG STORM. PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS ON THE BEAUFORT SCALE ARE BETWEEN 9 AND 10. THAT MEANS BETWEEN 75 KPH AND 100 KPH. WHEN IT HITS THE OMAN COAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 75 KPH.

The storm will create waves between 3 metres to 8 metres on the coast of Oman.

Satellite image of the Arabian Sea taken today by INSAT 3D (Courtesy IMD) at 1530 hrs GMT (1900 hrs IST)

Arabian Sea Storm NANAUK To Be Weak: Will Bring Rains To Central Coastal Oman June 11, 2014

The expected storm will be a weak one. Forecast map shows it on June 10, 2014 when it will be at its strongest with winds gusting at 80 Kph.

ARABIAN SEA LOW PRESSURE UPDATE: JUNE 7, 0830 HRS GMT

Latest forecasts say that the pressure low pressure area in the Arabian Sea will intensify slowly in the next few days.

But it will be weak storm. And by the time it touches the Oman coast it will be a mere low pressure area which on contact will dissipate. It will bring some rain to central coastal Oman from June 11, 2014.

But make no mistake. Even if it will be a weak storm, it will be nothing to sneeze at. The low pressure area will throw up winds in excess of 50 Kmph with rainfall. The impact will be on June 11, 2014. And windy weather will continue in coastal Oman for next two-three days.

Temperatures will fall. And there will be precipitation from Wednesday (June 11) to Saturday (June 14). Most of the rain will be around central coastal Oman, between Sawqirah and Khaluf.

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK Is Coming After all! To Hit Central Oman On Friday 13, 2014

XWF PREDICTION MAP: Tropical Cyclone NANAUK as forecasted on June 10, 2014 (Tuesday)

Latest forecasts say that Tropical Cyclone NANAUK is coming! We have earlier said that a low pressure area has formed in south Arabian Sea.

This low pressure area is expected to transform into cyclone Nanauk on Sunday (June 8, 2014). The wind speeds will start gusting at above 62 Kmph. This is the threshold which the Indian Met Dept. (IMD) has set for naming a cyclone. So the tropical storm is expected to be christened "Nanauk" on Monday (June 9, 2014).

The present low pressure area will start moving in a NE direction, strengthening all the time. By the time it reaches the Indian coast off Goa on Sunday it will metamorphose into a cyclone.

After that the cyclone is expected to curve away towards Oman in a NE direction. It  will touch the coast of central Oman on June 13, 2014 (Friday). The town which will bear the brunt of the storm is Duqm.

The storm (Nanauk) will weaken slightly before it makes land fall on June 13. But when on its way it is expected that it will throw out very strong winds in excess of 50 Knots (85 Kmph).

The area around Duqm will experience very heavy rainfall.

XWF STORM PREDICTION MAP: The path of Cyclone Nanauk from June 8 (Sunday) to June 12, 2014 (Thursday)

Arabian Sea Tropical Storm To Form Sunday (June 8, 2014). To Dissipate Near Oman Coast On June 13

The tropical storm near the Goa coast before it veers away towards Oman on June 11, 2014

Latest GFS forecasts have confirmed the formation a tropical storm on Sunday (June 8, 2014) near the Kerala coast. The low pressure area (precursor) to the storm has already formed in south Arabian Sea.

What about the tropical storm (Nanauk?)? After forming near Kerala on June 8 it will intensify and move in a northerly direction till it reaches the coast near Goa on June 11 (Wednesday).

After that it is expected to swing away in a NW direction and head towards Oman. But it will start dissipating as it moves towards the north Oman coast and break up totally by June 13, 2014. Its remnants will give some rains to Oman on June 13, 2014 (Friday).

We will keep you informed of the developments constantly. The situation is very volatile now.

The system breaks up near Oman on June 13, 2014

Low Pressure To Form Today. Oman in for heavy rains on June 13, 2014. Cyclone NANAUK coming?

TROPICAL STORM UPDATE: JUNE 5, 2014, 0330 HRS UTC

All forecast models are in agreement that a low pressure will form TODAY (June 5, 2014) and that it is going to intensify into a big cyclone in a few days. Questions is where is it going to hit? Oman? Pakistan? Or India, at Gujarat?

Latest GFS forecast say that it will hit Oman on June 13, 2014. But not as a full-blooded storm but as a depression, or a low pressure. The GFS forecast says (Now at least) that the low pressure area is unlikely to remain a full blown cyclone when it reaches Oman. After moving north as it nears Gujarat, the system will lose steam and drift towards Oman and reach it on June 13, 2014. Even then it will throw down a lot of precipitation.

Another point. The Arabian Sea is so unstable at present that the GFS forecast changes with every output. Hence we cannot rule out the possibility of the low pressure system growing into a massive storm and hitting anywhere. Both the CMC and NAVGEM say it is going to hit Oman full steam. Both these models though less reliable than the GFS and the European model, are not to be belittled.

One thing is for sure. Oman is in for rains. Around June 13, 2014.

Heavy rainfall is likely in northern Oman (Muscat included) on June 13, 2014