Typhoon MALAKAS To Drench Japan, Future MEGI Threatens Philippines On September 26

SEPTEMBER 19, 2016, MONDAY

 

The western Pacific Ocean is hurling storms by the fistful. Even as a weakening typhoon MALAKAS prepares to drench Japan as it slices though the eastern coast of the country, another typhoon MEGI is likely to hit Luzon, Philippines in a week, around September 26, 2016.

 

MALAKAS will hit Kyushu island east of Kagoshima city at about 1300 hours GMT, today with sustained winds of 150 km/h. It's wind intensity will decrease rapidly as it moves through the eastern coast of Japan. By the time it passes by Tokyo after 48 hours on September 21, 2016, it will be a mere tropical depression. But the typhoon will bring heavy rains in the country. Kyushu island is expected to receive 12 inches of rainfall in the next 24 hours.

 

Meanwhile another west Pacific Ocean typhoon MEGI may hit Luzon, Philippines on September 26, 2016. This typhoon may further intensify as it enters the South China Sea and hit the Chinese coast at Macau/Hong Kong on September 28, 2016.

At this stage it is difficult to be sure as to the expected track of typhoon MEGI. Other forecast models are saying it may just skim northern Luzon and hit Taiwan on September 29, 2016.

 

 

 

Typhoon LIONROCK Japan Rendezvous OnWednesday

AUGUST 27, 2016, SATURDAY 

Latest forecasts hint that the presently category 3 typhoon LIONROCK in north west Pacific Ocean may make landfall into Japan on August 31, Wednesday instead of Tuesday as earlier expected. The target area is northern part of Honshu island, between Iwaki and Shiroishi. The storm may pass perilously close to Fukushima. Tokyo seems to be saved from a direct hit. The typhoon will make landfall about 150 kilometres north of the city. 

At 0000 hours GMT today the cyclone lay about 525 kilometres roughly east of Naha, Okinawa. Direction is north east. Current sustained wind speed is 180 km/h, gusts upto 210 km/h. It was moving at about 9.2 km/h.   It will slowly weaken as it curves towards Japan. 

The JTWC believes it will be a mere tropical storm at the time of impact with 100 km/h winds. It also foresees a landfall at a spot even further north into Honshu (near Morioka and Kitikami) than what we predict. Our estimate is LIONROCK will pack quite a punch at landfall with winds of about 150 km/h.    

Category 3 Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Tokyo, Central Japan August 30, 2016

AUGUST 25, 2016, THURSDAY 

Intensifying typhoon LIONROCK is hovering in north west Pacific Ocean presently just a few hundred kilometres from Okinawa. 

Unlike most west Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones this one did not emerge from lower latitudes in the sea east of Philippines but came from North Pacific.

Forecast models seem divided as to where the storm will go. 

In the next couple of days it will retract its steps and strengthen further. Our estimate is by Saturday-Sunday it will be a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 240 km/h.

It will then weaken a little and slam into central Japan near Tokyo on Tuesday, August 30, 2016 with winds in excess of 200 km/h.

Worrisome for people of Japan.

0000 hours GMT, August 25, 2016

POSITION: About 900 kilometres roughly east of Taipei 

WIND SPEED:  Sustained- 200 km/h, Gusts- 240 km/h

Super Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Japan On August 29, 2016

AUGUST 23, 2016, TUESDAY

Tropical storm LIONROCK has already formed. At present it lies about 650 kilometres northeast of Naha, Okinawa in Northwest Pacific Ocean. It already has sustained winds of over 100 km/h. In the coming days it will move a little in the direction of Taiwan then abruptly backtrack.

By Friday it will intensified into a powerful storm. Forecast models indicate the by Sunday it will have a central minimum pressure of an astounding 915 hPa. According to research by American meteorologists with such low pressure in its eye, the tropical cyclone will be throwing winds of about 130-140 knots. That is a category 5 hurricane.

The worrisome aspect is reliable numerical forecast models say super typhoon LIONROCK may hit either southern or central Japan on August 29, 2016. If this does happen it may cause considerable destruction in the country.

The little blessing is the storm is expected to weaken before landfall into Japan.

Another Typhoon Threatens China, Hong Kong-Macau On August 18, 2016

AUGUST 9, 2016

After the powerful NIDA, another typhoon (will be named CHANTHU) poses a threat to Guangdong province of China, in the same Hong Kong-Macau area on August 18, 2016.

Reliable forecast models have been warning of a tropical cyclone formation in the South China Sea since a couple of days. The expected system will be engendered either north or west of Luzon, Philippines on August 14, 2016. Within days it will intensify into powerful typhoon CHANTHU and affect Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan provinces of China. Perhaps even northern Vietnam if initial data from forecast models is to be believed.

Where will the storm go? How strong will it be? This will become clearer in a few days.

RELATED: Typhoons CHANTHU, DIAMMU Imminent?

Update 5: Typhoon NIDA Makes Landfall Near Hong Kong

AUGUST 2, 2016

Typhoon NIDA made landfall into China 30 kilometres east of Hong Kong before midnight August 1, 2016 GMT time. Winds at impact were 120 km/h, gusts 150 km/h.

At present it is moving inland into Guangdong province. Though it is weakening, it is still throwing winds of 75 km/h. In the coming couple of days it will weaken further into a low pressure area and bring heavy rains in the province.

Pacific Typhoons Chan-Hom, Linfa, Nangka... Headed Where?

Where will the three West Pacific Ocean typhoons, Chan-hom, Linfa and Nangka go? Opinions differ. But Taiwan and Fujian province of China seem to be in for rough weather.

Satellite image taken at 0900 GMT, July 6, 2015, showing typhoons Chan-hom, Nangka and Linfa

The ocean is over active now, hurtling tropical cyclones and storms by the fistfuls. Let us discuss the forecasts for each of these...

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM

It has moved past Guam Island and if the JTWC is to be believed, it is headed for a super typhoon status soon in a couple of days, that is by July 9, 2015. It is expected to move past Okinawa by Friday morning, a few hundred kilometers away. But since Chan-hom will be so powerful then, expect very stormy weather at Kadena.

After that what? Forecasts differ. The JTWC says it will go onto hit Shanghai head on July 11, 2015. We think it will make landfall into Fujian province in China  just south of Fuzhou. It will weaken before impact on July 11. But it is going to kiss the northern part of Taiwan before that on July 10. Taipei and Chilung will be hit by winds of 250 km/h.

TYPHOON LINFA

Tropical cyclone Linfa is smaller in comparison. It has just passed northern Philippines and is going to intensify as it heads north towards the south-western coast of Taiwan. It will have winds of 60-70 km/h when it kisses the country's coast at Kaohsiung and Tainan on July 10, 2015. It will weaken into a low and head to Fujian in China after that.

TYPHOON NANGKA

This one is in the league of Chan-hom. A possible super typhoon. Luckily it is not going to head to heavily populated land masses. But it is going to move perilously close to the Japanese island of Iwo Jima on July 14, 2015. It is possible it may hit it directly. Predictions differ on the track of Nangka. 

The first possibility is it will kiss Iwo Jima and swing away from the east coast of Japan harmlessly. Another option is it will swing westwards and move right through the southern Japanese islands of Oshima and Okinawa. A dangerous possibility.

PHILIPPINES FACES MASSIVE STORM on April 5, 20

Trouble is brewing in the western Pacific. A massive typhoon is being spawned. It is just a depression now but the JTWC warns the system will turn into a typhoon blowing winds of 200 kmph in few days.

And it is going to hit Philippines on April 5, 2015.

Keep in touch for latest updates.

READ MORE ON TYPHOON MAYSAK

Philippines In Peril: Tropical Storm Jangmi Is Coming!

Philippines has just emerged from typhoon Hagupit, when another peril lurks round the corner. Jangmi is gonna come visiting the country on December 29.

Tropical Storm Jangmi is gonna be a slimy customer. Right now it does not exist, even as a low pressure. Hence it has not come on NOAA's constant vigil, even as an "invest".

The storm will begin innocuously as a low north of Papua New Guinea in a day or two. It will then stealthily creep towards Philippines, come near the coast of Mandanao, then intensify rapidly into a tropical storm, very close to the coast of the country on December 29, 2014.

It will then move NNW and enter the country from the Eastern Visayas.

Jangmi will be no Hagupit but it will cause trouble because it will be a slow moving storm. It is gong to move diagonally into the country. Hence lots of rains and of course the winds.

In The Next 15 Days.....A Cyclone Forming In South Pacific

Update, December 22, 2014.

• A typhoon may hit central Philippines on December 27, 2014 in the Visayas.
• A cyclone may form in the South Indian Ocean on December 26, 2014. No land areas will be affected.
• A depression has formed in the south Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu, east of the Australian coast. It is expected to intensify into a cyclone in the next 24 hours. It,s present winds are 35 kph. The storm will move SSE.
• Water vapor satellite image
• 

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 2014: LATEST CONTINUOUS UPDATES: Is Intensifying Before It Moves Into Vietnam Late Night

HAGUPIT IS INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM
Update: 0500 HRS GMT, December 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is intensifying now.
Right now it is spewing winds of 70 kph. Presently it lies about 500 kms east of central Vietnam. Contrary to what the JTWC predicts, this storm is intensifying again. It will grow stronger till it hits the Vietnamese coast early hours of Friday (Vietnam Time). At landfall the winds will be about 80-90 kph. Heavy rains are likely in central Vietnam in the next two days. (See Forecast map on right).

In fact, central Vietnam is going to see a lot of rain in the coming 10-12 days. First Hagupit and then another depression that will move in after a week. Parts of central Vietnam will face up to 25 inches of rain. Flooding, perhaps?

See the storm LIVE
See Rain Forecast Maps

------------------------------------------------
DO NOT WRITE OFF HAGUPIT...YET
Update: 0600 HRS GMT, December 10, 2014

The JTWC had almost washed its hands off Hagupit. Until it intensified again. Presently it lies about 700 kms east of central Vietnam and is throwing out winds of 75 kph.  By tomorrow evening (Vietnam Time) it will make landfall at either Binh Thuan or Ninh Thuan province. Though winds will be sub-cyclone speeds it will be still 55 kph, gusts up to 75 kph. heavy rains are expected in central and southern Vietnam.

------------------------------------------------
WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN IN NEXT 12 HOURS
Update: 0630 Hours GMT. December 9, 2014

Tropical Storm Hagupit is going to intensify again. 

Hagupit is going to intensify in the coming 12 hours. It may weaken a bit after that but by the time it hits central Vietnam on Thursday night (Vietnam Time) it will be throwing winds of 90 kph. Some other forecasts even hint at the possibility of it going through Vietnam, Thailand and reaching the Indian coast as a depression. Phew! A long way to travel.

See Hagupit Track

But Vietnam is facing a cyclone threat in the coming 72 hours, is certain.

There is a strong possibility that the country may be hit by another tropical storm (JANGMI) on December 15-16. But that is dealt with elsewhere.

------------------------------------------------
HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE STARTED IN MANILA
Update: 1330  hours GMT, December 8, 2014

The winds are dropping all the time. In fact it is hardly windy in Manila city. The eastern coast of Luzon has strong winds of 75 kph. But it is raining hard in many parts of Luzon. Next 12 hours will see very heavy rains in Manila and Quezon City

It rained heavily in Batangas, Lucena, Tayabas city in the last one hour. It rained heavily in Mindoro  a few hours ago. The rains are shifting north now.

The storm is over Lucena now, 120 kms south-east of Manila City. In a few hours it will pass closest from the city between Calamba and Lipa. Another 6 hours after that and it will leave Filipino shores.

The worry of flooding in Manila is real.The memories of the flood of  September 28, 2009 are still fresh. The heavy rains caused by typhoon Ketsana led to inundation of the metro and 246 people had died. Four-fifths of the city had been submerged under water. Thousands had been displaced.

See animated satellite images of its recent movement HERE
-------------------------------------------------
HEAVY RAINS IN MANILA TODAY
Update: 0330 Hours, GMT, December 8, 2013

The storm is weakening all the time as it moves over the Philippines land mass, Winds have dropped to 100 kph, but the rains continue. Manila is for a thorough drenching in the next 24 hours. The areas of southern Luzon and southern Tagalog (Mindoro) will get the maximum rains.

Hagupit knocking on Manila's door

-------------------------------------------------
RAINS STILL A THREAT
Update: 1400 Hrs GMT, December 7, 2013

The winds are dropping all the time but the JTWC predicts that tomorrow night (Philippines Time) when Hagupit will be passing south of Manila the winds will still be about 120 kph. Presently the storm is near Masbate city with winds of 140 kph. The problem is not the winds but that the slow moving storm is dumping lots of rain on the country. It is going to take 36 hours before it exits Philippines shores.

By the time it reaches southern Vietnam on December 12, it will be below tropical storm strength, just a depression

--------------------------------------------------

HAGUPIT TYPHOON NOW LEAVING SAMAR ISLAND Update: 0330 hours, December 7, 2014

The storm has travelled the Samar Island and is about to leave it. It has weakened a little but still has 170 kph winds. It will now move to Legazpi city and Masbate Island.

According to the JTWC it will take another two days to move through Philippines. When it moves close to Manila tomorrow evening (local time), the winds  will be still 120-150 kph.

Hagupit Will Go To Vietnam Too

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph

See Latest Track Forecast Map
---------------------------------------------------
THE 'EYE' HAS HIT PHILIPPINES AT SAMAR (BETWEEN BORONGON AND TAFT)

Update: 1400 Hrs, December 6, 2014

Typhoon Hagupit has hit Philippines at Samar Island between Borongon City and Taft. The landfall happened slightly south than was earlier expected. Ground Zero is 100 kms NE of Tacloban. The storm had winds of 200 kph, gusts to 250 kph on impact.

When the eye will pass  through Samar island the winds will drop dramatically. The rains may cease or turn into a drizzle. But this will be a period of deceptive calm. Within a hour the howling will start again as the other half of the diameter will pass. Samar is in for a good hiding tonight. It is already facing very strong winds and drenching rains.

The storm will pack winds of 140-165 kph even on Monday-Tuesday as it leaves Philippines. A powerful storm.

--------------------------------------------------
THE STORM HAS HARDLY MOVED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS: TYPHOON JANGMI AFTER HAGUPIT?
Update: 1000 hours GMT, December 6, 2014

It seems as if it was deciding which direction to go to. Searching for conditions which will favor it. Yes. Typhoon Hagupit has remained almost stationary in the last 3 hours.

Forecast models mostly say it will make landfall at north Samar tonight (or early morning tomorrow). Winds at time of impact will be about 185 kph. It will then move though Bicol and then on to Mindoro and Luzon over the next 2-3 days. The city of Legazpi will face a direct hit.

Because it is slow moving it will throw down more precipitation and expose the country to strong winds for a longer period.

Already a part of the diameter of the storm has already entered Philippines.

Another piece of bad news for Philippines. Latest GFS  forecasts indicate of another typhoon hitting the country around December 14, 2014. Typhoon JANGMI will be smaller than Hagupit but one storm after another in a few days! The mind boggles.

--------------------------------------------------
HAGUPIT'S PERIPHERY IS TOUCHING PHILIPPINES NOW
Update: 0500 Hrs GMT, December 6, 2014

Right now Typhoon Hagupit's outer boundary is touching Samar Island. Wind speed is 210 kph, gusts up to 260 kph. The storm is weakening.

Most forecasts say that  the storm will curve slightly upwards. The worst affected areas will be Samar, Bicol, Tagalog. The typhoon will move over these areas in the next 48 hours. The wind speeds will gradually decrease as it does so. But Manila will have 140 kph winds on Monday when Hagupit reaches it.

See the video below to know where and when will it rain as the storm moves through the Philippines. The forecast is valid from Saturday (December 6, 2014) to Tuesday (December 9, 2014)

VIDEO: Rain Forecast Owing to Hagupit (Saturday to Tuesday)

----------------------------------------------------

HAGUPIT TO GROW STRONGER IN NEXT 12 HOURS TO 250 KMPH (GUSTS 300 KMPH)

Update: December 5, 2014: 1430 Hours GMT

The fears of the people of Philippines are well-founded. Typhoon Hagupit had weakened slightly in the last six hours, but latest indications are it is going to intensify even more in the coming 12 hours. 250 Kmph, with gusts up to 300 Kmph. A Category 5 hurricane without doubt.

The only silver lining  (If one may say so) is that when the typhoon passes Samar Island Sunday morning winds will drop to 210 Kmph. This is a slow moving storm, which makes it even more lethal. Strong winds for longer periods and more rainfall dumped over an area.

The word "landfall" is for met guys. It means the "eye" of the cyclone moves aver a particular area. For  the people who will face the storm it is a technical irrelevancy. The eye of Hagupit is about 300 kms from the Philippines coast of Samar, but the lashing has already started as the periphery of this huge storm has already started moving in.

The latest forecast bulletin by the JTWC issued at 1500 Hrs today (December 5, 2014) predicts the brunt of the storm will be felt in Eastern Visayas, Bikol and Southern Tagalog. A relentless hammering by 200-250 kph winds. Come Monday evening (local time) and Manila will get a direct hit with 130-170 kph winds.

Philippines is in for hard times in the next 72 hours

---------------------------------------------------

HAGUPIT WILL HIT EAST VISAYAS (PHILIPPINES) TOMORROW (LOCAL TIME) WITH 200 KMPH WINDS

Update: December 5, 2014: 0300 Hrs GMT

It is almost certain now that Typhoon Hagupit will enter Philippines at Eastern Visayas tomorrow morning (Philippines Time). The wind speeds then will be 200 Kmph, gusts up to 250 Kmph. The typhoon is weakening from its peak strength yesterday (It is below super typhoon grade now) but it will still be a formidable storm when it hits Philippines tomorrow.

The areas that will  be worst affected will be Eastern Visayas, and parts of central Visayas, west Visayas and Bikol. After hitting the country the typhoon is going to move in a  NW direction for the next 48 hours. That is the worrying part. The storm is going to move over the country slowly, lingering on till Monday morning. With such winds, in two days, it could wreak havoc.

The worst affected islands will be Samar, Leyte, Bikol, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro.

By the time it exits Philippines from the Mimiropa area it will be considerably weakened. This is the scenario on which the GFS and ECMWF Models agree.

The JTWC predicts a slightly northerly course. Hitting Bikol and then moving through Luzon. According to it, Hagupit will move over Philippines for three days; Till Tuesday. On Tuesday morning Manila will experience 115-140 Kmph winds.

The storm on entering the South China Sea will face the colder waters along the mainland Asian coast and so will not be able to intensify much again. It will move on to Vietnam on December 12, 2014 as a weak storm. Winds of 60-80 Kmph.

At 1200 Hrs GMT yesterday, according to NOAA readings, Hagupit was a Dvorak 8 Hurricane. That is a Category 5 hurricane.

The central pressure at 0600 Hrs GMT, December 5, 2014: 941 Mb. A Big storm, in short. But the central pressure is increasing, a sign that the typhoon is weakening.

---------------------------------------------------

PHILIPPINES WILL BE HIT: POINT AND TIME OF IMPACT: EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS

Update: December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT

All the forecast models agree. Philippines will be hit on Saturday. The GFS model (along with the JTWC) say now that the country will suffer a direct assault by this monster created by nature. The ECMWF model has been saying all the time that super typhoon Hagupit would hit Philippines.

The models disagree only on the areas of the country which will bear the brunt of the storm.

The GFS says the worst affected will be East Visayas, Bikol and Luzon (Including Manila). The European model predicts a 'Haiyan' path. Piercing through the Visayas (East, Central and Western). That means Tacloban is in for another lashing. In short the GFS (and JTWC) predict northern Philippines will be worst hit. The ECMWF says central Philippines.

In fact, the European model says Hagupit will go on to Vietnam on December 11, 2014. The GFS forecasts its dissipation over northern Philippines.

Time Of Impact will be Saturday morning (December 6, 2014) Philippines time.

Wind speed at impact will be 230 Kmph (Eastern Visaya) gusts up to 280 Kmph. At Bikol the wind will be 215 Kmph, gusting up to 260 Kmph. When it passes by Manila on Monday the winds will be 160 Kmph (Gusts: 200 Kmph).

These are latest estimates (December 4, 2014: 1500 Hrs GMT)  by the JTWC, which are generally reliable. If this happnes!

Present location: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 11 Degrees North, 131.3 Degrees East.

Present Wind Speed: (December 4, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT): 280 Kmph (Gusts - 335 Kmph)

1130 GMT: December 4, 2014: Today

---------------------------------------------------

SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT HAS WINDS OF 290 KMPH NOW: A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

Update: December 4, 2014: 0330 Hrs: GMT

It is Mother Earth at her angriest. Or call it nature gone mad. Massive super typhoon HAGUPIT is howling right now with winds of 290 Kmph. Gusts up to 315 Kmph. And it is going to get worse. The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow the winds will go up to 315 Kmph (sustained winds), gusts up to a mammoth 380 Kmph. These are readings by NOAA.

WHAT DO THE LEADING FORECAST MODELS SAY? AN ANALYSIS

The storm lay about 400 Kms NNE of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Latitude: 9.8 N. Longitude: 133.9 E. The storm is moving slowly. By  Monday morning it will come near the Philippines at East Visayas, then curve NW and move along the coast at Bikol. Though the eye of the storm will not pass through these areas the periphery will. And this will cause massive destruction. The island of Catanduanes will be badly affected. On Monday it will swing away from the Philippines, move NNE and then dissipate on Wednesday.

Both the JTWC and GFS more or less agree on the above mentioned scenario.

The ECMWF model still begs to differ. It says Hagupit will hit central Philippines on late Friday night (December 5, 2014) Philippines time, and go right through. It will then hit Vietnam on Thursday, December 11. It says Hagupit will weaken slightly when it crosses Philippines but gain strength again in the warm waters of the South China Sea. When it strikes Vietnam, it will be a big bad storm. That is if this forecast is vindicated, two countries are going to face vast devastation.

One does not get a storm like Hagupit frequently. If the JTWC predictions come true I think wind speeds of 380 Kmph is going to feature in the hall of infamous records.

The JMA Model (Japanese Meteorological Agency) largely agrees with the European model. Storm goes through Philippines onto Vietnam.

The US Navy's NAVGEM Model says the super typhoon is going to enter Philippines (At Bikol) on Saturday and then keep hammering north Philippines for three days. A doomsday scenario.

The GEM Model agrees with the NAVGEM; Only that Hagupit will enter Philippines a day later, on Sunday. And that northern Philippines will get a unholy hammering for 2-3 days after that.

HAGUPIT  NEAR PHILIPPINES ON MONDAY

---------------------------------------------------

EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT HEADED TO VIETNAM

Update: December 3, 2014: 0930 Hrs GMT

At 0600 hours (GMT) today Hagupit lay 400 Kms East-North-East of Palau (Lat: 8.3 N, Long: 138.6 E). Winds were 100 knots (185 Kmph).

Meanwhile, the latest GFS forecast issued at 0600 hrs (GMT) today maintains Philippines is safe. The typhoon will  not make landfall into Philippines. It will change direction on Saturday and move north along the coast. We believe this forecast will be vindicated on Saturday. At least for the sake of Philippines (And Vietnam).

The latest forecast issued by the ECMWF persists with its earlier predictions. It says Hagupit is going to hit central Philippines on Saturday. And then pass through, go into the South China Sea and hit Vietnam on December 11, 2014.

If this really happens Philippines is in for big trouble. Hagupit is slowly turning into a monster cyclone. The devastation that it could wreak upon central Philippines (Tacloban again?) boggles the imagination.

On the other hand the latest from the JTWC (These three really matter when it comes to predicting cyclones: GFS, ECMWF and JTWC) seems to be veering around to what the GFS is saying; That Hagupit will slant north and move along the Filipino coast and not hit it. The track shows a definite curving on Saturday.

---------------------------------------------------
UK METOFFICE SAYS TARGET IS BIKOL, DEC. 9
Update: Dec. 3, 2014. 0600 Hrs GMT

Amongst all the hullabaloo about the American and European forecast models everybody seems to have forgotten about the UKMO model. Yes, the UK Met Office too has its own forecast model and what does it say about the future of super typhoon Hagupit?

It says the storm will near the Philippines and hover around for two or three days then enter the country on December 9 (Tuesday) at Bikol area. It will be quite strong then.

Here is the track of Hagupit by UKMO.

 VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 03.12.2014   7.4N 139.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 03.12.2014   9.0N 136.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 04.12.2014  10.4N 134.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 04.12.2014  11.2N 132.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 05.12.2014  11.5N 131.2E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 05.12.2014  11.4N 130.7E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 06.12.2014  11.1N 130.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 06.12.2014  11.0N 129.8E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 07.12.2014  10.8N 129.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.12.2014  11.4N 128.0E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.12.2014  12.4N 126.3E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.12.2014  12.8N 124.9E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.12.2014  13.0N 123.7E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

SATELLITE IMAGE OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT TAKEN AT 0000 HRS TODAY GMT

UPDATE: DECEMBER 3, 2014: FORECAST MODELS STILL DIFFER: DANGER TO VIETNAM TOO?

Forecast models still differ as to what will Haupit do next. Will it cross through Philippines and go on to hit Vietnam? Or will it disintegrate near the coast of Philippines? Meanwhile the typhoon grows stronger and creeps closer to Philippines. JTWC opines that in the next 60 hours it will turn into a howling super typhoon with winds gusting up to a staggering 300 Kmph.

Typhoon HAGUPIT lay 1000 Kms from the Philippines coast, 450 Kms east of Palau Island at 0000 Hrs GMT today. Wind speed is about 170 Kmph. It is moving in a WNW direction. In the next 48 hours it will intensify rapidly to a super typhoon with speed of 240 Kmph, gusting up to 300 Kmph.

By Friday-Saturday midnight (Philippines time) it will be 450 Kms east of East Visaya. It will at its strongest then. Winds of 240 Kmph.

After that, what? There is a sharp difference on that.

One forecast model (GFS) says it will start curving north and move along the Philippines coast for the next three days. It further says it will dissipate rapidly on December 9 near north Philippines Cagayan region.

The European Model (ECMWF) says the typhoon will hit central Philippines on December 5-6 and move through it (East, Central, West Visayas, Palawan), It will cross over to the South China Sea and go on and strike central Vietnam on December 9, 2014.

Both the models agree on the intensity of the storm. Both say the central pressure will be about 955 mb.

HAGUPIT TYPHOON 2014: PREDICTED TRACKS/PATH

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: GFS MODEL STILL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HOVER AROUND PHILIPPINES THEN MOVE NORTH

The GFS forecast modal (Also the Special GFS Model) in its latest predictions still maintains that Philippines will be safe. Typhoon Hagupit will come near the coast of the country on late Saturday, hover around and move north. It will not hit Philippines. It will coast along the Philippines shores, dangerously close, for 48 hours, till Monday then move north.

SPECIAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS HAGUPIT WILL HIT PHILIPPINES

Everybody is confused. The GFS forecast model says Typhoon Hagupit will not make landfall in Philippines but steer north. The European ECMWF model's latest bulletin says the storm will hit central Philippines on Saturday night. It further says it will cross the country and then move over to Vietnam on December 10, 2014. The JTWC is playing it safe and not taking any position. There are  other models like the GEM, CMC, and NAVGEM but we have seen from experience that they are not so reliable. And we do not want to waste your time by going into educational intricacies.

We tend to be partial to the GFS forecast model and so have said that Philippines will remain safe from the monster of a storm. The JTWC predicts Hagupit will be a super typhoon with speeds of 240 Kmph gusting up to a massive 300 Kmph on Sunday (Dec 6, Philippines time) morning.

Scary.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 2, 2014: WINDS ARE 90 KMPH NOW

The American model says the typhoon will not hit Philippines. The European forecast model in its last bulletin said that it would hit Philippines and then go onto Vietnam. We await the latest news from the European model. We shall inform you as soon as we get any sort of information.

Typhoon Hagupit lies at latitude 5.9 N, longitude 147 E, about 900 kms south of Guam. In the next days it is going to intensify rapidly. On Friday (December 5) night (Philippines Time) it will be 550 Kms from Eastern Visayas. Winds will be 195 Kmph gusting up to 230 Kmph.

After December 5, 2014, the storm will start curving northwards. It will not hit Philippines, but in the next two days it will move along the coast, a few hundred kilometers far. 

By December 9-10 it will start dissipating rapidly as it meets the colder waters near the coast of Japan.

The island of Yap will face the fury of Hagupit tomorrow night with 155-195 Kmph winds.

LATEST GFS TRACK OF HAGUPIT TYPHOON. IT WILL NOT HIT PHILIPPINES

--------------------------------

UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: "HAGUPIT" HAS FORMED: CALLED STORM 22W

Future typhoon Hagupit has already formed. It lies at Latitude 4.9 North, Longitude 152.1 East at 0600 Hrs GMT. It has wind speeds of 65 Kmph already.

Side note: The word HAGUPIT in the Filipino language Tagalog means "thrashing". Very apt.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 1, 2014: HAGUPIT TO BE A SUPER TYPHOON: BANSI MAY BE STILL BORN

Upcoming super typhoon HAGUPIT is going to give the people of Philippines sleepless nights. By December 6 it will be swirling as a massive storm a few hundred kilometers from the coast of the country. With the memories of HAIYAN still raw in Filipino minds, one can understand the trepidity.

But the good news (at least for now) is that the typhoon will move away from Philippines on December 6, 2014 and head northwards. But there are five more days to go and our man Hagupit will be as unpredictable as all storms are.

Forecast models are divided. One says it will hit central Philippines (The area Sinlaku passed through) on December 6-7.

Another says it will first move towards the country then swing north and away. But even if this happens it will pass by Philippines just a few hundred kms from the coast.

Let us wait and watch.

BANSI WILL BE STILL BORN: ONCE AGAIN

We had predicted another cyclone to form; this one in the south Indian ocean. But it seems that one too will be still born. It will remain a depression. The name "Bansi" is not going to be used for some more time. One wonders why the storms in the southern Indian ocean are so weak, while the northern part of the ocean throws up monsters like Phailin, Hudhud and the infamous cyclone of 1999 in the Bay of Bengal.

-----------------------------

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 30, 2014

Both the tropical storms "2S" and "Sinlaku" are dissipating presently but two more storms are on the horizon. Cyclone Bansi will form in the South Indian Ocean on December 3-4, 2014  WSW of Indonesia and move towards Australia. Typhoon "Hagupit" will be born a couple of thousand kms east of Philippines deep in the Pacific.

Bansi will reach cyclone status on December 4. It will turn into a powerful storm but will move towards Australia and start disintegrating by December 5, 2014. Away from any inhabited land it will go largely unnoticed barring by the ships that traverse the Indian ocean.

Hagupit is another super typhoon in the making. It will become a tropical storm on December 3, 2014 and start intensifying into something mammoth. Present indications are it will not move into Philippines but curve towards Japan on December 7, 2014.

Philippines In Peril: Typhoon SINLAKU (NENENG) May Form December 3, 2014

The country is still recovering from Haiyang when another typhoon is likely to form east of Philippines on December 3, 2014.

The expected cyclone SINLAKU (NENENG) will be born a few hundred kilometers east of Northern Philippines  and intensify rapidly and move towards the country.

Forecasts models are not sure whether the storm will hit the country or dissipate before landfall. We can say for sure after a few days. It is about 12 days to go and a lot may happen by them.

Keep reading this site for the latest updates.

Extra-Tropical Cyclone Nuri Is Hammering Alaskan Islands Now As It Moves Into The Bering Sea

Typhoon Nuri turned into a mid-latitude cyclone after it left Japanese shores and is now battering Alaskan Islands with 150 Kph winds.

 At present Nuri is passing through the outer chain of islands near Bering Sea [Includes Russia's Kommandorskie Islands and US Attu, Kiska and Adak Islands].

The storm is intense. Its minimum pressure will reach 930 Mb soon. Luckily it is passing now through very sparsely populated areas now. About 1000 people live in the Kommandorskie Islands and about 100 live in the Adak Islands. Attu and Kiska are uninhabited.

The cyclone will enter the Bering Sea and then subside in the next two days. But it has left the fishing ships in the sea scurrying for cover. No one in their right minds would linger on as such a storm approaches.

In the US the people in Adak islands will be worst affected. In fact 120+ Kph winds are already battering the island. Pribilof island and Unalaska will see strong winds, rough seas and precipitation in the next 2 days.

Nuri is going to affect the weather of the US. A cold front will move down over parts of northern US Monday as Nuri will push down cold winds from the north. [SEE MAP BELOW]

The map shows the waves [In meters] that Nuri is going to create around Alaska

Soruce: National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center

Waves in Alaskan waters: Nuri Effect

 Nuri Effect on US weather

Typhoon NURI To Form Today: A Category 3 Hurricane

The birth of Typhoon Nuri took place just west of Guam. By today evening (UTC} it will be a typhoon.

The word "Nuri" in Malaysian means a type of parrot. Well this bird is going to chirp very loudly. The JTWC predicts Typhoon Nuri will be a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 200 Kph on November 3, 2014.

And Nuri is going to fly to Japan. It will kiss Japanese shores on November 7 and move along the east coast with strong gale and a deluge. Tokyo too will feel its effect.

The Philippines will remain untouched by the storm. In a day or two it will curve northwards towards Japan.

XWF WEATHER FORECAST MAP: November 6-7: Nuri about to kiss Japan

This is how Nuri will move along Japan: November 6-7

Tropical Storm "Phanfone" Has Formed: Will Intensify And Move Towards Japan

This satellite picture taken at 0600 Hrs, Sept. 27, 2014 shows 'Kammuri' nearing Japan and the area where 'Phanfone'was born

As 'Kammuri' moves towards Japan, another typhoon has formed in the Pacific. Phanfone.

The JTWC confirms the birth of the storm.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 166.5E TO 8.6N 160.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Phanfone will intensify and move towards Japan in the coming days. present forecasts say that it will near Japan till the 5th of October, 2014, than weaken and move away from the coast.

"Phanfone"means "animal" in Laotian. Let us see how much of a beast it turns out to be.

Update September 28, 2014, 0230 PM GMT: Typhoon Phanfone will hit Taiwan on October 5, 2014 according to latest forecasts.

XWF FORECAST PATH: Expected path of Typhoon Phanfone from now to Ocober 6, 2014

Tropical Storm "Kammuri" Update: September 27, 2014: Typhoon Will Pass By Japan On Sept. 29, 2014

Infra-Red satellite image of Typhoon Kammuri taken at 0300 Hrs, September 27, 2014

Japan is fortunate. Just a few days there was a real possibility that two typhoons would strike it one after another. But things have changed. Typhoon Kammuri which is hovering around in the Pacific now is not going to strike Japan but pass it by on September 29, 2014.

Typhoon Phanfone which is being spawned right now in the Pacific, will also by-pass Japan in early October. But that we leave for later.

Expected path of Kammuri: From today till September 29, 2014

MET OFFICE PREDICTS THE PATH OF 'KAMMURI'
       GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2014

 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI    ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 145.7E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 27.09.2014  24.8N 145.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 27.09.2014  27.3N 144.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 28.09.2014  30.1N 143.3E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 28.09.2014  32.1N 144.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 29.09.2014  33.4N 146.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.09.2014  35.7N 149.9E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.09.2014  39.0N 156.4E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 30.09.2014  41.3N 164.4E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.10.2014  41.0N 172.1E   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.10.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

XWF WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Typhoon "Phanfone" moves past Japan on October 5, 2015

Latest Pacific Update: September 24, 2014: Both Kammuri And Phanfone Will Skip Japan

The vagaries of nature! Yesterday it seemed as if Kammuri would be a very big storm and it would hit central Japan on September 29, 2014. And that Phanfone would strike a week later.

But latest predictions say both the typhoons will kiss the Japanese coast and move away without moving in. Kammuri on September 29, 2014 and Phanfone on around October 7, 2014.

But nature can spring surprises. We have to keep a close watch.

This is what the venerable JTWC says in its latest bulletin....

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 150.6E TO 23.5N 145.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 149.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.

JAPAN'S WOEFUL FUTURE: After "Kammuri" Typhoon "Phanfone" Will Strike It Around October 7, 2014

Japan is going to face nature's fury in the coming fortnight.

Firstly big tropical storm "Kammuri" will hit central Japan near Tokyo on September 29, 2014. As if that was not bad enough, Kammuri is going to be followed by another storm, Phanfone.

Yes, we had earlier predicted that Phanfone would hit Taiwan, but latest forecasts say it is going to touch Japan in the very same area as Kammuri around October 7, 2014.

Thankfully, present indications are that Phanfone is not going to be as strong as Kammuri.

Japan's cup of woes seem to be spilling over as far nature is concerned.

XWF FORECAST MAP: Phanfone approaches Japan as seen on October 5, 2014. It will make landfall in another couple of days after this

LATEST UPDATE 0630 HRS GMT 23/9/204: Typhoon Kammuri To Hit Central Japan September 29, 2014

Latest forecasts say upcoming typhoon "Kammuri" will hit central Japan on September 29, 2014.

Earlier we had predicted that the storm will just skim the Japanese coast and move away but the typhoon seems to have changed its mind and will now hit central Japan near Tokyo on September 29, 2014.

Kammuri is going to be a big storm. May be a super typhoon.

Keep reading this site for the latest forecasts.

XWF FORECAST MAP: Kammuri about to hit central Japan on 29th September 2014

Western Pacific Update, September 21, 2014: Wung-fong will die down after crossing Taiwan, "Kammuri" Will Hit Japan October 3, 2014

The Atlantic and Indian oceans have been peaceful. In contrast, the Pacific, especially Western Pacific is in ferment.

Tropical storm Fung-wong is moving intoTaiwan now. It will cross through it bringing rains and gale. The storm will than make landfall in China's Zhejiang province and will peter out, bringing rains to South Korea and Japan.

The next storm, "Kammuri" will form deep in the Pacific by September 25. It will strengthen and move west initially but then turn north sharply and hit central Japan on October 3, 2014.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move into Taiwan tomorrow . A weak storm.

An infra-red satellite image of Typhoon Fung-wong taken at 0000 Hrs, September 21, 2014 (GMT)

Fung-wong is entering Taiwan

READ MORE ON TYPHOON FUNG-WONG