Typhoon NORU Will Affect Southern Japan For 48 Hours

AUGUST 5, 2017, SATURDAY 

The storm is intensifying. Typhoon NORU is feeding hungrily off the 30 degrees Celsius warm waters off the southern Japan coast. It is turning into a category 2 hurricane with winds, sustained, of 150 kmph, gusting upto 200 kmph.

It is roughly 125 kilometres south of Ibusuki, a little town on the southern tip of Kyushu island. NORU will take about 18 hours to travel that distance for landfall into mainland Japan, tomorrow morning at 9 AM local time (about 0100 UTC, Sunday).

The storm will slam head on into Ibusuki as a category 2 storm.

As said earlier, it is a slow moving storm at present. So Kyushu will bear for a long time the torrential rains and strong gusts as NORU takes its own sweet time walking by.

After slicing through the eastern coast of Kyushu, the storm will pass through western Shikoku, onto southwest Honshu before entering the Sea of Japan as a weakening tropical storm on Tuesday, August 8, 2017.

So a large swathe of southern Japan is in a thorough drenching, landslides, flooding, and wind-caused damage for almost 48 hours, Sunday morning to early Tuesday morning.

We have relied on the track forecast as laid down by the European model, ECMWF. The JTWC largely agrees. But the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting) model has serious difference of opinion with the JTWC and ECMWF. It believes NORU will nudge along the eastern coast of Japan before swinging back into the Pacific Ocean off Tokyo albeit greatly weakened.

SEE HWRF TRACK.....

https://twitter.com/weatherxwf/status/893371528187793408

Typhoon NORU To Move Through Kyushu, SW Honshu

AUGUST 4, 2017, FRIDAY 

Typhoon NORU may have weakened to a category 1 hurricane but in the coming hours it will intensify again (winds of 160 kmph, gusts upto 200 kmph) as it batters the islands of Japanese archipelago.

Hardened storm chasers may belittle NORU for falling from a super typhoon to a mere category 1 storm but it still packs a punch. When it slices through the densely populated Kyushu island it will have winds of 140 kmph, gusts upto 185 kmph.

For people in cities like Nagasaki, Hiroshima it means trouble. More problematic will be the accompanying rainfall.

NORU is a slow moving storm. It will take almost 48-72 hours to move through the northern Ryukyu islands into Kyushu. Only after it moves through mainland Japan will it gain speed as it ploughs through Kyushu and southwestern Honshu into the Sea of Japan.

NORU will enter Kyushu only in the early hours of August 6, local time. Till then the flails of the storm will keep lashing southern Kyushu.

Slow moving storm means prolonged agony for the areas affected.

Southern Japan, South Korea In Trouble As Intensifying Typhoon NORU Comes

AUGUST 2, 2017, WEDNESDAY

Though no longer a super typhoon, NORU is causing shivers in Japan and South Korea. It is moving in a northwesterly direction and will begin to affect Japanese territory only after 2-3 days. But the sea surface temperature near the coast of Japan being warm at 31 degrees centigrade, this will prove like a booster dose of vitamins to the storm.

It is likely to pass by the island of Amami Oshima as a category 4 hurricane with winds in excess of 200 km/h, gusts upto 250 km/h.

Most forecast models, including the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, agree that NORU will slice through the numerous Japanese islands, between Kyushu and Okinawa. Then it will curve and move between the Japanese island of Kyushu and the southeastern coast of South Korea into the Sea of Japan.

The problem is it is going to take 2-3 days starting August 5 to do so. So in these 3 days it is going to affect southern Japan badly. Worst hit will be Kyushu island.

Many cities on the South Korean coast too will be affected, including Busan. 

NORU is going to cause destruction with its strong winds, torrential rainfall and the rough high waves which the typhoon will whip up.

For folks in the Indian subcontinent, as long the west Pacific Ocean is hurling massive typhoons one after another, the Indian Ocean, especially the northern part, will remain subdued. So expect low monsoon activity in South Asia in the next few days. We have observed over the years that the west Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean play a see-saw between them. When one is active, the other turns mild.

It is the western Pacific which is in active mode presently, with tropical cyclones NESAT, HAITANG and NORU (NORU ate up on other nearby storm called KULAP recently in the Fujiwhara Effect). Another one called NALGAE is brewing already and will sail past northern Japan in a few days.  Indian monsoon is in a subdued mode as a result.

Satellite image of typhoon NORU taken at 4:30 AM UTC, August 2, 2017.

The expected track of typhoon NORU according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, JMA.

Track and intensity forecast of typhoon NORU by the JTWC.

Typhoon MALAKAS To Drench Japan, Future MEGI Threatens Philippines On September 26

SEPTEMBER 19, 2016, MONDAY

 

The western Pacific Ocean is hurling storms by the fistful. Even as a weakening typhoon MALAKAS prepares to drench Japan as it slices though the eastern coast of the country, another typhoon MEGI is likely to hit Luzon, Philippines in a week, around September 26, 2016.

 

MALAKAS will hit Kyushu island east of Kagoshima city at about 1300 hours GMT, today with sustained winds of 150 km/h. It's wind intensity will decrease rapidly as it moves through the eastern coast of Japan. By the time it passes by Tokyo after 48 hours on September 21, 2016, it will be a mere tropical depression. But the typhoon will bring heavy rains in the country. Kyushu island is expected to receive 12 inches of rainfall in the next 24 hours.

 

Meanwhile another west Pacific Ocean typhoon MEGI may hit Luzon, Philippines on September 26, 2016. This typhoon may further intensify as it enters the South China Sea and hit the Chinese coast at Macau/Hong Kong on September 28, 2016.

At this stage it is difficult to be sure as to the expected track of typhoon MEGI. Other forecast models are saying it may just skim northern Luzon and hit Taiwan on September 29, 2016.

 

 

 

Typhoon Goni To Hit Kyushu, Japan, South Korea August 25, 2015

Goni is a kid brother of super typhoon Atsani which is barreling north into the Pacific Ocean giving Japan a fright. But tropical cyclone Goni is no midget. It is already a category 4 hurricane if we use American terminology with winds of 105 knots (190 km/h).

It is presently passing by Luzon in Philippines. Heavy rains are reported from northern Philippines with the coast being very windy as the periphery moves by.

On August 22, Goni will pass the eastern coast of Taiwan but at a distance of about 200 kilometers. Even then the effect will be considerable on the eastern parts of the country which will face torrential rains and winds in excess of 120 km/h.

Though typhoon Goni will intensify in the next two days as it passes Taiwan, it will not achieve super typhoon status. But it will then have a central minimum pressure of 913 millibars. A dangerous storm.

As it moves towards Japan after that it will start weakening. It will move through Kyushu, right through Nagasaki. Kyushu and Chukogu districts of Japan will be badly hit.

The weakening storm will then move through South Korea and then into northeast China on August 26, 2015. There will be very heavy rains in South Korea and Hebei, Liaoning provinces of China.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR TYPHOON GONI BY JTWC. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN JAPAN INTO SOUTH KOREA ON AUGUST 25-26 AFTER WEAKENING.

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Typhoon GONI Will Hit South Korea August 25, 2015

Typhoon Goni which is dangerously hovering in the West Pacific will turn into a very powerful cyclone and is expected to Hit South Korea on August 25, 2015. It will pass close by Luzon in Philippines and Taiwan soon.

Typhoon Goni track forecast. It is likely to hit South Korea on August 25, 2015

The Western Pacific Ocean has spawned two powerful typhoons simultaneously, which is surprising. If forecasts are to be believed both Goni and Atsani are headed to super typhoon-dom. 

Soon to be super cyclone Atsani is not so worrying as it will mainly traverse uninhabited areas and may threaten central Japan On August 23, 2015. Our prediction is Tokyo is safe as Atsani will swing away back into the ocean without hitting Japan.

But Typhoon Goni is going to give many countries cause to worry. After passing Guam it is intensifying and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center says it will reach wind speeds of 220 km/h on August 21, when it will pass by Luzon in Philippines. Only the periphery of the storm will touch northern Philippines.

After that typhoon Goni will move north and intensify. It is possible it may become a super typhoon as the warm waters of the East China Sea gives it extra vigor.

It will move past Taiwan on August 22, but at a safe distance. Eastern coast of the country will experience stormy rain and winds as Goni passes by.

On August 25, 2015 it will moves through western Kyushu Island of Japan and then enter South Korea. It will weaken a little before landfall.

The provinces of South Jeolla and South Gyoengsong of South Korea will be the worst hit.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

Water vapor satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean showing Typhoon Goni and Atsani.

Neoguri Weakens But Will Hit Kyushu With 150 Kph Winds

Satellite infra-red image of Neoguri taken today (July 9, 2014) at 3 AM GMT.

NEOGURI is no longer the monster it was a day ago. The weather front from China has steered it away towards Japan but also weakened it. But when it will hit Kyushu islands today (July 9, 2014) it will throw up winds of 150 kph. Not a sneeze that.

Neoguri is a slow moving storm. That is why it is dangerous. It might have weakened but it will move slowly over Japan, hence prolonging its destructive capabilities. It will hit Tokyo on the morning of July 11, 2014. So it will move over Japan for two days.

It reminds one of the destructive super cyclone that hit Orissa (India) in 1999. It had just hovered over the Orissa coast for a day or two. And battered it remorselessly. Cruel storms I call them. Who says nature is kind and gentle? Japan is luckier. Neoguri has weakened, the 1999 cyclone had lingered on as a super cyclone with winds of 300 kph. Phew!

But Neoguri seems to be weakening earlier than expected. It is yet to hit Kyushu islands and the winds have fallen to 90 kph. The storm is weakening fast.

Latest JTWC bulletin says,

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 32
FEET.

This image was taken at 0225 hrs GMT today, July 9, 2014. The storm is weakening.

HISTORY

THE TRACK HISTORY OF TYPHOON NEOGURI

Tropical Storm Seven-W (07W) Brewing In The Philippine Sea Will Bring Rain To Korea

There is another storm (Seven-W) brewing in the Philippine Sea. It is expected to form anytime. UK's Metoffice says the place of birth is going to be 11.9 N, 131.8 E. Now this tropical storm will not become a monster but will remain a deep depression or a small cyclone. It may even get a name. The important thing is this storm is going to head NNE and go to Korea by the June 25th, 2011. That is what GFS says. NOGAPS says it will bring rains to Korea on the 27th June, 2011. NOGAPS forecasts lesser rain to Korea. GFS says the storm is going to drench Korea. NOGAPS says the storm will move between Korea and Japan. GFS says it is going to walk through Korea.


PREDICTIONS

• A new tropical storm is to be born in the Philippine Sea anytime now.
• It is going to move in a northerly direction and head towards Korea.
• It will bring some rain to Taiwan and Japan but it is going to give lots of rains to Korea around the 25th of June. 
• Strong winds will lash Korea and Kyushu islands of Japan on June 25, 2011
• The storm will move further to the Russian coast and disintegrate around the 27 of June, 2011.

 The GFS forecast: The storm will drench Korea on the 25th of June, 2011

The NOGAPS forecast says the storm will creep through Korea and Japan. It will bring rains to southern Japan. June 27. 2011.