Southern Japan, South Korea In Trouble As Intensifying Typhoon NORU Comes

AUGUST 2, 2017, WEDNESDAY

Though no longer a super typhoon, NORU is causing shivers in Japan and South Korea. It is moving in a northwesterly direction and will begin to affect Japanese territory only after 2-3 days. But the sea surface temperature near the coast of Japan being warm at 31 degrees centigrade, this will prove like a booster dose of vitamins to the storm.

It is likely to pass by the island of Amami Oshima as a category 4 hurricane with winds in excess of 200 km/h, gusts upto 250 km/h.

Most forecast models, including the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, agree that NORU will slice through the numerous Japanese islands, between Kyushu and Okinawa. Then it will curve and move between the Japanese island of Kyushu and the southeastern coast of South Korea into the Sea of Japan.

The problem is it is going to take 2-3 days starting August 5 to do so. So in these 3 days it is going to affect southern Japan badly. Worst hit will be Kyushu island.

Many cities on the South Korean coast too will be affected, including Busan. 

NORU is going to cause destruction with its strong winds, torrential rainfall and the rough high waves which the typhoon will whip up.

For folks in the Indian subcontinent, as long the west Pacific Ocean is hurling massive typhoons one after another, the Indian Ocean, especially the northern part, will remain subdued. So expect low monsoon activity in South Asia in the next few days. We have observed over the years that the west Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean play a see-saw between them. When one is active, the other turns mild.

It is the western Pacific which is in active mode presently, with tropical cyclones NESAT, HAITANG and NORU (NORU ate up on other nearby storm called KULAP recently in the Fujiwhara Effect). Another one called NALGAE is brewing already and will sail past northern Japan in a few days.  Indian monsoon is in a subdued mode as a result.

Satellite image of typhoon NORU taken at 4:30 AM UTC, August 2, 2017.

The expected track of typhoon NORU according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, JMA.

Track and intensity forecast of typhoon NORU by the JTWC.

Typhoon Goni To Hit Kyushu, Japan, South Korea August 25, 2015

Goni is a kid brother of super typhoon Atsani which is barreling north into the Pacific Ocean giving Japan a fright. But tropical cyclone Goni is no midget. It is already a category 4 hurricane if we use American terminology with winds of 105 knots (190 km/h).

It is presently passing by Luzon in Philippines. Heavy rains are reported from northern Philippines with the coast being very windy as the periphery moves by.

On August 22, Goni will pass the eastern coast of Taiwan but at a distance of about 200 kilometers. Even then the effect will be considerable on the eastern parts of the country which will face torrential rains and winds in excess of 120 km/h.

Though typhoon Goni will intensify in the next two days as it passes Taiwan, it will not achieve super typhoon status. But it will then have a central minimum pressure of 913 millibars. A dangerous storm.

As it moves towards Japan after that it will start weakening. It will move through Kyushu, right through Nagasaki. Kyushu and Chukogu districts of Japan will be badly hit.

The weakening storm will then move through South Korea and then into northeast China on August 26, 2015. There will be very heavy rains in South Korea and Hebei, Liaoning provinces of China.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR TYPHOON GONI BY JTWC. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN JAPAN INTO SOUTH KOREA ON AUGUST 25-26 AFTER WEAKENING.

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Typhoon GONI Will Hit South Korea August 25, 2015

Typhoon Goni which is dangerously hovering in the West Pacific will turn into a very powerful cyclone and is expected to Hit South Korea on August 25, 2015. It will pass close by Luzon in Philippines and Taiwan soon.

Typhoon Goni track forecast. It is likely to hit South Korea on August 25, 2015

The Western Pacific Ocean has spawned two powerful typhoons simultaneously, which is surprising. If forecasts are to be believed both Goni and Atsani are headed to super typhoon-dom. 

Soon to be super cyclone Atsani is not so worrying as it will mainly traverse uninhabited areas and may threaten central Japan On August 23, 2015. Our prediction is Tokyo is safe as Atsani will swing away back into the ocean without hitting Japan.

But Typhoon Goni is going to give many countries cause to worry. After passing Guam it is intensifying and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center says it will reach wind speeds of 220 km/h on August 21, when it will pass by Luzon in Philippines. Only the periphery of the storm will touch northern Philippines.

After that typhoon Goni will move north and intensify. It is possible it may become a super typhoon as the warm waters of the East China Sea gives it extra vigor.

It will move past Taiwan on August 22, but at a safe distance. Eastern coast of the country will experience stormy rain and winds as Goni passes by.

On August 25, 2015 it will moves through western Kyushu Island of Japan and then enter South Korea. It will weaken a little before landfall.

The provinces of South Jeolla and South Gyoengsong of South Korea will be the worst hit.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

Water vapor satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean showing Typhoon Goni and Atsani.

Pacific Typhoons Goni Atsani Threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea Japan

The two typhoons Goni and Atsani hovering in the West Pacific Ocean could threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan in the coming days this August 2015.

Track forecast for Pacific Ocean typhoon Goni and Atsani. Goni will move close by Luzon in Philippines and northern Taiwan. Future super typhoon Atsani poses a threat to central Japan on August 26, 2015.

Though latest forecasts by leading reliable computer models say now that none of these cyclones will hit any country directly but it is difficult to say so with any emphasis as tropical storms obey no computer models however thorough they may be.

A couple of days back we had said in our prediction that Typhoon Goni might hit China at Shanghai but the expected track has changed a little. The tropical cyclone is to move much closer to Luzon in Philippines than earlier expected on August 21, 2015.  It will kiss past the northeastern coast of Taiwan on August 23, 2015 and then weaken. It will then swing towards southern Japan and then change direction and enter South Korea as a  tropical storm on August 27.

Typhoon Goni will probably not metamorphose into a super typhoon (Unlike Atsani) but it will still be  a dangerous storm with a central minimum pressure of 914 Mb when it moves past Luzon. Winds of 200+ km/h. It is possible it may reach super typhoon status.

The authorities in Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will have to keep a very close watch on cyclone Goni.

Typhoon Atsani in contrast only threatens central Japan. And in a few days it will turn into a howling monster of a storm. A super typhoon with a minimum pressure of 905 Mb. A dangerous powerful cyclone.

Atsani will move through Iwo Jima and go very close to central  Japan threatening Tokyo on August 26, 2015. Our calculation presently is that it will not hit Japan but swing away north east in northern Pacific Ocean and turn into a mid-latitude cyclone threatening the Aleutian Islands.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

Typhoons Goni and Atsani in the West Pacific Ocean are going to intensify and turn into very powerful storms in the coming days and they threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. in the next 10 days. They are slow moving cyclones and hence lethal.