Tropical Storm DIAMMU Brewing In South China Sea

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Tropical storm DIAMMU is imminent in the South China Sea south of Hong Kong-Macau coast of Guangdong province coast of China.

It is a low pressure area presently. NOAA calls it Invest 95W.

By tomorrow it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone.

It will move west through Haikou, Hainan island on Thursday and enter the Gulf of Tonkin.

It will make landfall into northern Vietnam on Friday, August 19, 2016, with winds of 80-100 km/h. But latest forecast says it might be 140-150 km/h winds as the typhoon is expected to intensify rapidly before hitting Vietnam. A central minimum pressure of 970 hPa. Powerful storm.

It will weaken into a persistent low pressure area as it moves through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar. It will reach Indian Northeast and Bangladesh on August 21-22.

Two Storms In West Pacific Soon? CHANTHU, DIAMMU Coming?

AUGUST 10, 2016

Forecast models are giving confusing signals of the possibility of two or three tropical cyclones to form in the west Pacific, South China Sea area in the coming days. Alarming times for Philippines, Vietnam, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan.

We had predicted the possibility of typhoon CHANTHU forming in the coming days in the South China Sea and causing a hazard to China.

Well it seems, two tropical cyclones are likely in the region, not one. First CHANTHU, then DIAMMU.

Tropical storm CHANTHU may form first in the Gulf of Tonkin soon. It is likely to intensify rapidly and hit the Haiphong coast of Vietnam on August 15.

Tropical cyclone DIAMMU will form on August 15 in the South China Sea off the Philippines coast. It is expected to turn into a typhoon and hit the coast of Guangdong, China in the Hong Kong-Macau belt around August 18, 2016.

The situation is nebulous at present. Different forecast models are saying different things. For instance, the GFS forecast model predicts a powerful typhoon affecting Philippines, Taiwan around August 20.

Things will become clearer in the coming days.

UPDATE: AUGUST 11, 2016

Something is going to come up soon in the Gulf of Tonkin off the Vietnam coast. A low pressure area is likely to be spawned on August 14, which in a few days might intensify into a tropical cyclone by August 18-19.

There is also a possibility of a strong typhoon hitting Taiwan on August 20, 2016. This may form many hundreds of kilometres north of Guam on August 16.

Another Typhoon Threatens China, Hong Kong-Macau On August 18, 2016

AUGUST 9, 2016

After the powerful NIDA, another typhoon (will be named CHANTHU) poses a threat to Guangdong province of China, in the same Hong Kong-Macau area on August 18, 2016.

Reliable forecast models have been warning of a tropical cyclone formation in the South China Sea since a couple of days. The expected system will be engendered either north or west of Luzon, Philippines on August 14, 2016. Within days it will intensify into powerful typhoon CHANTHU and affect Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan provinces of China. Perhaps even northern Vietnam if initial data from forecast models is to be believed.

Where will the storm go? How strong will it be? This will become clearer in a few days.

RELATED: Typhoons CHANTHU, DIAMMU Imminent?

LATEST KALMAEGI UPDATE: Typhoon Will Hit Philippines With Winds of 160 Kph Today Night

Latest satellite image (0300 Hrs GMT September 14, 2014) of Kalmaegi

Cyclone Kalmaegi approaches North Philippines with howling winds and torrential downpours. It will make landfall tomorrow night (local time), that the night of September 14, 2014. Winds will be in excess of 150 kph. Wave surge will be 10-12 meters or even more. The Batanes islands will be worst hit.

Kalmaegi will weaken as it passes over northern Philippines but will strengthen again as it enters South China Sea. It will hit the southern neck of Guangdong province on September 16, 2014, late night. Worst hit be the city of Zhanjiang which will see winds of 130 kph.

The typhoon will then move along the coastal areas of China in the Gulf of Tonkin and enter the area of border of Vietnam and China on the 17th of September. Though the winds will be less but the rains will be very heavy in North Vietnam.

Latest projected path of Kalmaegi according to JTWC.

 Kalmaegi will strengthen again in the South China Sea. This is the forecasted position of the typhoon on September 16, 0000 hrs GMT.

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 Northern Philippines coast will see waves surge by 12 meters.

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Total rainfall owing to Kalmaegi forecasted from now till September 18, 2014. The white patches show heaviest precipitation.

SIDELIGHTS: THIS LADY TAIWANESE FORECASTER HAS GOT IT RIGHT!

THIS VIETNAMESE WEATHERGIRL WARNS ABOUT KALMAEGI

South China Sea To Spawn Tropical Storm "Mitag"/"Ester" On June 13, 2014

EAST ASIA

Path of expected tropical storm Ester (or Mitag) from June 13, 2014 to June 18,2014

The season of tropical storms is upon us. The North Indian Ocean has so far disappointed us. In the Americas, only a piddly little Amanda was formed in the Eastern Pacific near Mexico.

The much vaunted west Pacific typhoon season is perhaps about to begin. SE Asia is infamous for its tropical storms. Last year if I have the facts right,  the Pacific Ocean had been hurtling storms by the handfuls, one after another.

This year the account will open with the South China Sea. A low pressure area is likely to develop here off the Manila coast. On June 13, 2014. This system will slowly move northward turning into a depression. Taiwan is likely to get lots of rainfall on June 14, 2014. The depression will then intensify into a typhoon and turn in a NE direction. It will pass by Japan from below on the 16th of June and then move on to dissipate into the Pacific.

But the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Ryukyu are likely to bear the brunt of Tropical Storm Mitag on June 16, 2014.

June 16, 2014. Heavy rains in the Japanese island of Okinawa.