As DIAMMU Enters Vietnam, Rains In Madhya Pradesh Till Sunday

AUGUST 19, 2016, FRIDAY 

Talking of significant developments, tropical storm DIAMMU is entering northern Vietnam as we write. It turned out weaken than was earlier expected. About 75 km/h winds on impact. 

Nevertheless it will traverse through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and reach Bangladesh on Sunday. It will move past West Bengal, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and reach Gujarat on August 24, 2016.

Meanwhile the low pressure area over Jharkhand-eastern Uttar Pradesh is moving into Madhya Pradesh. Expect very heavy rains in some parts of the state till Monday. Bhopal, Indore. There might be showers in parts of eastern Gujarat, southeast Rajasthan on Sunday owing to the system. 

The GFS model foresees rains in parts of eastern and northern India in the coming fortnight. The western parts of the country will remain rainless (except for the DIAMMU effect). An early departure of a weak monsoon?

By the month end one can expect a storm system developing in the Bay of Bengal. Let us see. The Arabian Sea has been unnaturally inactive this year. Weird.

HOTSPOTS NOW

Tropical Storm DIAMMU Brewing In South China Sea

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Tropical storm DIAMMU is imminent in the South China Sea south of Hong Kong-Macau coast of Guangdong province coast of China.

It is a low pressure area presently. NOAA calls it Invest 95W.

By tomorrow it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone.

It will move west through Haikou, Hainan island on Thursday and enter the Gulf of Tonkin.

It will make landfall into northern Vietnam on Friday, August 19, 2016, with winds of 80-100 km/h. But latest forecast says it might be 140-150 km/h winds as the typhoon is expected to intensify rapidly before hitting Vietnam. A central minimum pressure of 970 hPa. Powerful storm.

It will weaken into a persistent low pressure area as it moves through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar. It will reach Indian Northeast and Bangladesh on August 21-22.

Two Storms In West Pacific Soon? CHANTHU, DIAMMU Coming?

AUGUST 10, 2016

Forecast models are giving confusing signals of the possibility of two or three tropical cyclones to form in the west Pacific, South China Sea area in the coming days. Alarming times for Philippines, Vietnam, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan.

We had predicted the possibility of typhoon CHANTHU forming in the coming days in the South China Sea and causing a hazard to China.

Well it seems, two tropical cyclones are likely in the region, not one. First CHANTHU, then DIAMMU.

Tropical storm CHANTHU may form first in the Gulf of Tonkin soon. It is likely to intensify rapidly and hit the Haiphong coast of Vietnam on August 15.

Tropical cyclone DIAMMU will form on August 15 in the South China Sea off the Philippines coast. It is expected to turn into a typhoon and hit the coast of Guangdong, China in the Hong Kong-Macau belt around August 18, 2016.

The situation is nebulous at present. Different forecast models are saying different things. For instance, the GFS forecast model predicts a powerful typhoon affecting Philippines, Taiwan around August 20.

Things will become clearer in the coming days.

UPDATE: AUGUST 11, 2016

Something is going to come up soon in the Gulf of Tonkin off the Vietnam coast. A low pressure area is likely to be spawned on August 14, which in a few days might intensify into a tropical cyclone by August 18-19.

There is also a possibility of a strong typhoon hitting Taiwan on August 20, 2016. This may form many hundreds of kilometres north of Guam on August 16.