Both Rain Systems Will Dissipate On Sunday, DIAMMU To Reach Gujarat

UPDATE, SUNDAY, AUGUST 21: Latest forecasts say the low pressure system will move western India by Wednesday.

AUGUST 20, 2016, SATURDAY 

The two low pressure areas that were expected to maintain monsoon rains in India will collapse on Sunday. The one that is presently over northwest Madhya Pradesh will move to southeast Rajasthan tomorrow and fizzle out. Meanwhile the remains of tropical storm DIAMMU are presently moving past Myanmar. By tomorrow it will reach Bangladesh and die down quickly.

Heavy rains in northeastern Madhya Pradesh, parts of Rajasthan till Monday.

Heavy rains in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Myanmar, Bangladesh till Monday morning.

Very heavy rains in Bangladesh on Sunday.

Heavy rains in parts of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh on Monday.

 UPDATE: AUGUST 21, 2016, SUNDAY 

Things have changed. The remnant of tropical storm DIAMMU, a low pressure system, which is moving over Bangladesh now may reach southern Rajasthan, Kutch, northern  Gujarat on August 24-25. It will bring rains even to Sindh possibly on Friday.

Earlier forecast was the circulation would dissipate over Bihar-eastern Uttar Pradesh today.

The circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh fizzling out as predicted. DIAMMU remains moving into West Bengal. By Thursday it will reach southern Rajasthan, north Gujarat, Kutch.

As DIAMMU Enters Vietnam, Rains In Madhya Pradesh Till Sunday

AUGUST 19, 2016, FRIDAY 

Talking of significant developments, tropical storm DIAMMU is entering northern Vietnam as we write. It turned out weaken than was earlier expected. About 75 km/h winds on impact. 

Nevertheless it will traverse through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and reach Bangladesh on Sunday. It will move past West Bengal, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and reach Gujarat on August 24, 2016.

Meanwhile the low pressure area over Jharkhand-eastern Uttar Pradesh is moving into Madhya Pradesh. Expect very heavy rains in some parts of the state till Monday. Bhopal, Indore. There might be showers in parts of eastern Gujarat, southeast Rajasthan on Sunday owing to the system. 

The GFS model foresees rains in parts of eastern and northern India in the coming fortnight. The western parts of the country will remain rainless (except for the DIAMMU effect). An early departure of a weak monsoon?

By the month end one can expect a storm system developing in the Bay of Bengal. Let us see. The Arabian Sea has been unnaturally inactive this year. Weird.

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August 15, 2016: Weather Forecast Update: Flooding Rains In Parts Of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh

AUGUST 15, 2016, MONDAY

The cyclonic circulation over northern Madhya Pradesh will peter out by tomorrow night but not before it floods areas of the state north of Jabalpur.

Another low pressure area is going to move in soon into West Bengal from the Bay of Bengal by tomorrow. This system will bring heavy rains to West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh in the coming 3-4 days.

Meanwhile, a South China Sea tropical cyclone will reach India after weakening into a low pressure area on August 21 after traversing Vietnam, China, Laos, and Myanmar. This system will have great stamina and may reach western Madhya Pradesh by August 24.

So we see it is going to be a very wet eastern India in the coming 7 days as it is hammered by 2 rain systems, one after another.

Flooding rainfall in area between Jabalpur and Kanpur till Wednesday evening. Parts of northern Madhya Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh to be worst affected.

Worst affected districts in Madhya Pradesh will be Khajuraho, Satna, Katni, Damoh.

RELATED: NOAA Forecast Maps

Heavy rains in Uttar Pradesh as the Bay of Bengal low pressure system moving into West Bengal.

August 14, 2016: Weather Forecast: Very Wet Uttar Pradesh, Eastern Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh Ahead

AUGUST 14, 2016, SUNDAY 

The low pressure area lies over eastern Uttar Pradesh. It will weaken and dissipate in the next 72 hours but it will give damaging precipitation to eastern Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh.

A Bay of Bengal low pressure area is likely to develop off the West Bengal coast by August 16. 

Also another low pressure system may reach eastern India on August 21 from the South China Sea. The low may form in the South China Sea soon. It may intensify into tropical storm hit northern Vietnam-southern China then weaken. But it may travel to India.

Moreover two tropical cyclones are heading for Japan. CHANTHU and CONSON. CONSON will affect part of Hokkaido island tomorrow with 75 km/h winds. CHANTHU will kiss by the eastern shores of the country near Tokyo with 100 km/h winds on August 18 and then reach Hokkaido on August 19, 2016.

Very heavy rains in eastern Madhya Pradesh (around Jabalpur region) till Monday morning.

Heavy rains in Bhopal, Narsinhpur, Hoshangabad, Raison, Katni, Panna districts of MP till Sunday night.

Very heavy rainfall in parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh (Kanpur, Banda, Chitrakoot, Fatehpur) and northeast Madhya Pradesh (Satna, Rewa) on Monday.

Heavy rains in Chattisgarh (Korba, Bhilai) on Monday-Tuesday.

FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO INCESSANT RAINFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH (Chhatarpur, Damoh, Panna, Satna districts).

The rain radar at 8:30 AM, Sunday, shows heavy rains in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Bangladesh. But the real concern is eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh which faces a deluge in the next 72 hours.

Cyclones CONSON and CHANTHU to affect Japan in a span of 4 days.

Canadian model predicts good Indian monsoon rains in July

JULY 2, 2016

The latest monthly rainfall forecast by the Canadian CANSIPS seasonal model for July 2016 for India is out. It basically says the same thing as it said in June. That good monsoon rains are expected in northern, western and southern parts of the country.

Only the eastern states will have deficient below average rains. Karnataka Gujarat and Rayalseema will receive heavy precipitation in July. Pakistan, Oman and UAE will receive above average precipitation. Bangladesh will remain relatively dry.

This is largely corroborated by NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast System) weekly forecast for July. It predicts a deluge in western India, especially in Gujarat between July 2-9. We have already predicted in an earlier post that a low pressure area may bring flooding rainfall to Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat around July 8, 2016.

Worryingly the CFS forecasts very poor precipitation throughout India in the last fortnight of the month.

Water scarce Gujarat is pinning its hopes on the July 8 low pressure system.

Depression 99B To Bring Heavy Rains To MP, Maharashtra, Gujarat By September 20, 2015

The depression 99B that has formed in the Bay of Bengal and presently flooding Odisha has stamina. If forecasts are to be believed this system is not only to bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, southern Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, northern Maharashtra, South and central Gujarat, and Saurashtra in the next 5 days but will in fact intensify from a 997 Mb storm to a 994 Mb storm when it hovers over Saurashtra on September 21, 2015.

It has just crossed the Odisha coast and bringing heavy precipitation to the region. In the next  72 hours it is going to reach Gujarat. On September 20, 2015 it will move onto Saurashtra and then hover over the region for a day or two and then abruptly move towards western Rajasthan and onto Haryana, Delhi and even Kashmir. Heavy rains are expected in these states till September 26.

The above was the American NCEP forecast. The European forecast differs on the track for the low pressure 99B. It predicts it will move into Sindh after Saurashtra and move north right through Pakistan. if the ECMWF model proves to be accurate then Pakistan is in for very heavy rains from September 22 onwards. And the system is expected to traverse throughout the country.

But that possibility seems to be receding. The latest data from the model says 99B will suddenly weaken on September 22, 2015 as it leaves Saurashtra and enters the Arabian Sea and then drift back through northwest Gujarat into Rajasthan and further into northern India before dissipating.

Wherever it goes 99B has a lot of energy and it will flood many areas before it peters out. And that is not expected for another 10 days.

Keep  in touch for latest forecasts for 99B. It has the computer models confused and they have been giving out different track forecasts with successive bulletins.

Big rain-maker system 99B needs to be closely monitored.

See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

Track The Storm

Depression/low 99B over Odisha. Latest satellite image taken at 0400 GMT, September 16, 2015