Bay of Bengal Depression/Tropical Cyclone Is Being Born

APRIL 12, 2017

A low pressure area is being gradually formed in the Bay of Bengal. A look at the latest satellite image of the sea reveals massive clusters of disturbed weather and powerful thunderstorms. From this morass of clouds will emerge a rain system between Nicobar islands and the Indian mainland.

Global forecast models are divided over whether this low will intensify into a deep depression or tropical cyclone MAARUTHA. The American GFS is clear in portending a cyclone. It predicts a tropical storm nudging along the Myanmar coast bringing a deluge to these areas.

Other models expect a deep depression or a weak tropical storm to form in the next 48-72 hours. The system will move north northeasterly and head for the border of northern coastal Myanmar and Chittagong region of Bangladesh. 

Whatever happens, Indian Andaman and Nicobar islands are in for a deluge in the coming days. Upto a metre of rainfall may occur. Tourists visiting these islands are advised to head to safer areas or leave for mainland India as soon as possible as the weather in the Bay of Bengal is going to be very disturbed in the next coming 5-7 days.

Disappointingly for drought hit Tamil Nadu the present expected storm system will not give it the much needed rain, though Sri Lanka will experience heavy showers under its influence.

Rains will come to Tamil Nadu by the end of this month, but it will be owing to another system.

The pink denotes areas of very heavy rainfall presently.

Arabian Sea Tropical Storm To Form Today: Likely To Dissipate On Thursday

Satellite image of the Arabian Sea at 0300 hrs GMT, June 9, 2014

ARABIAN SEA UPDATE: JUNE 9, 0330 AM GMT

Cyclone Nanauk is expected to form today off the Goa coast. The system even now has winds gusting up to 62 Kph.

It will intensify into a tropical storm Nanauk (If IMD gives it the name) and move north towards Gujarat. On Thursday, June 12, 2014 it will disintegrate.

Present forecasts say it will have no or little impact on Oman. Though the NAVGEM says the system will reach Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014 bringing strong winds and rain.

The system is now located at 14 degrees North and 68 degrees East.

See The Cyclone LIVE

The NAVGEM forecast model says the system will reach north Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014

June 10, 2014.Tuesday. The system at its height

The storm is expected to be a weak storm. My guess is that IMD will term it a deep depression and not name it tropical cyclone Nanauk. Though forecasts say it will throw up winds (sustained winds) well in excess of 62 Kph.

After forming near the Goa coast it will intensify and move in a NNW direction. On June 12, 2014 it will burnout a few hundred kms from the Gujarat coast.

JTWC says the possibility of the system turning into a "significant tropical storm" is medium. In other words the chance is 50-50.

IMD WAKES UP

This is what the IMD says in its 0530 AM (IST) bulletin....

The east-west shear zone along latitude 12.0°N with embedded cyclonic circulation over eastcentral & neighbourhood extending upto mid-tropospheric level persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours and intensify thereafter

The Mid-day Bulletin, June 9, 2014......

A low pressure area has formed over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. It would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

Will The Arabian Sea Storm Be Named (Nanauk)?

The storm will be at its strongest on June 12, Thursday, 2014 with winds of more than 90 kph.

A storm is coming in the Arabian Sea. Latest forecasts say that. But the question is will it be named? Will it be called Nanauk? Or will it be termed as 02A or something like that.

It all depends on the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department). If it feels that sustained winds of the storm are below 62 Kph then it will call it a "Deep Depression". No naming. No honoring with the name of "Nanauk".

But if according to IMD's observations the sustained winds are over 62 Kph then the storm will be called "Nanauk".

What do we think about it?

According to forecasts, the system will be the strongest on June 12, 2014 (Thursday) with winds of  more than 90 Kph. So we feel the storm will be termed a "cyclonic storm" by the IMD and named Nanauk.

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 DEFINITION OF MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: Most weather agencies use the definition for sustained winds recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which specifies measuring winds at a height of 10 metres (33 ft) for 10 minutes, and then taking the average. However, the United States National Weather Service defines sustained winds within tropical cyclones by averaging winds over a period of one minute, measured at the same 10 metres (33 ft) height. This is an important distinction, as the value of a one-minute sustained wind is 14% greater than a ten-minute sustained wind.

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Latest Predicted Path Of The Storm
See The Cyclone LIVE

A TROPICAL STORM ("PHAILIN"?) TO HIT OMAN ON MAY 27, 2013

We had predicted two days ago (May 11) that the Arabian Sea was now going to churn out a cyclone in the next ten days. Forecasts are consistently supporting this forecast so we felt impelled (we have been getting many queries) to write these lines today.

Yes,  a storm (PHAILIN?) is likely to form in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast on the 21st of May, 2013. It will then move more or less in a NW direction in the coming days. It will strengthen all the time and move towards Oman. It is likely to hit Oman on May 27, 2013.

It is too early to say about the size of the tropical storm but indications are that PHAILIN will be a big tropical storm. And it will bring lots of rains to Oman from May 27.

We will keep updating you with the latest forecasts about the possible tropical storm in the coming days.

RAIN PREDICTION MAP: MAY 21 TO MAY 27, 2013: OWING TO  EXPECTED ARABIAN SEA STORM

TROPICAL STORM BAY OF BENGAL FORECAST UPDATE MAY 8, 2013: DEEP DEPRESSION TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO BANGLADESH MAY 15, 2013

XtremeWeather Rainfall Prediction Map: Bay of Bengal Deep Depression moves into Bangladesh on May 15, 2013 bringing very heavy rains. 

As we had predicted before a low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal SE of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models predict a depression in the Bay of Bengal which is likely to give heavy rains to Bangladesh and the Indian North East states on May 15, 2013.

Now this system as it moves north into the Bay of Bengal may intensify but I do not think the IMD is going to give it a name (Mahasen) because the top speeds it will muster will be about 60-65 kmph. Anyway present forecasts say it will weaken back into a depression and make landfall into Bangladesh.

Disappointing stuff.

But let us keep our fingers and watch what happens in the next few days.

We will keep you posted.

But for those interested here are the storm warnings given by official met bodies.

JTWC: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
FORMATIVE BANDING HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

METOFFICE: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.05.2013

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 :  7.5N  87.9E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.5N  87.9E     WEAK

 12UTC 11.05.2013   7.6N  88.4E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.05.2013   8.7N  87.7E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.05.2013  10.0N  87.1E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.05.2013  11.3N  86.7E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.05.2013  12.5N  86.7E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.05.2013  14.2N  86.7E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

INDIAN MET DEPT: A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood associated upper air cyclonic  circulation  extending  upto mid­tropospheric  levels. Ocean ­atmospheric  conditions  suggests that the system would concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.

No Murjan, Just A Depression In Bay Of Bengal, Nov. 2012?

Ah! The vagaries of nature! Unpredictable nature!

Latest forecasts say that the Bay of Bengal storm expected to form in the end of October, 2012 will be below cyclone strength. So it will not be honored with the name Murjan.

The expected system will turn into a low pressure area on October 31, 2012. It will initially move towards Orissa, but them abruptly start moving eastwards towards the Myanmar. As it does it will gain strength and turn into a depression and hit the Burmese coast on Nov. 3, 2012.

Projected path (showing wind speed) of the Bay of Bengal rain system. 31 Oct.-3 Nov. 2012

RAINFALL PREDICTION FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL DEPRESSION OCT-NOV 2012

The Indian states of Orissa and northern Andhra Pradesh will receive some rain on October 31, 2012 as the low pressure area initially moves towards the Indian coast.

But Myanmar is going to receive very heavy rainfall on November 3-4, 2012.A real drenching. A natural tragedy awaits Myanmar.

Rain prediction map. Bay of Bengal depression  October 31-November 4, 2012

Last few words. It is still ten more days to go. Who the hell can say where the storm will go? The coastal areas of Bay of Bengal will have to be on their toes in the next ten days. India, Bangladesh and Myanmar? Where?

New Big Depression To Form In Arabian Sea Nov 6, 2011

 Wind speed forecast map. The expected depression will cover a large area. A big storm. Seen at its full power on Nov 9, 2011

While the short lived Keila slinks away to Yemen, a new big storm will take birth in the Arabian Sea on Nov 6, 2011. It will not be of cyclone strength; a depression or may be a deep depression. But the remarkable thing is it is going to be depression covering a large area. A big one in short.

As said earlier it will move to the seas between the Omani and Gujarat coast till November 9, 2011. But then it will start breaking up on the 10th of November.Heavy rainfall will lash Pakistani coast on Nov 11, 2011. Gujarat will too get some rains on Nov 13.  as the remnants of the depression will drift towards the state.

Rain forecast map. Sindh and Balochistan coastal areas are in for flooding on Nov 11, 2011

Rain prediction map. Nov 8, 2011. The depression will throw a lot of rain into the Arabian Sea. The purple color means a deluge

Arabian Sea (Nov 2011) Deep Depression To Bring Rains To Oman Till November 10

A rather persistent Deep Depression has formed in the Arabian Sea near the coast of Oman. (Folks of Oman must be enjoying the cloudy weather at present!) Now this system is going to stick around the Omani coast for the next eight days or so. Result? Rains in Oman for the next ten days. Not too heavy but substantial. As a result of the system southern Pakistan will get a drenching from November 1- 4, 2011. Especially affected will be area near Gwadar, though Karachi will get some rains too.


Now this Deep depression will gain strength and almost reach cyclone level around Nov 4, 2011. But it is unlikely that it will turn into a big bad cyclone. So windy weather on the coast of Oman till November 7th. And rains too. The coastal areas will receive more precipitation. But Muscat too is going to get wet on November 1-2, 2011. May be later also.


In short, a rare wet spell for Oman in the next 8 days. Enjoy it!

Rainfall Forecast Maps for Oman In November, 2011

 November 1, 2011. Oman gets its first rains. Muscat too.

Nov 6, 2011. More rains in Oman

Rain Forecast Map Southern Pakistan Nov 2011

Southern Pakistan coast gets a deluge. Rains expected here Nov 1-4, 2011

Wind Speed Forecast Map Arabian Sea Depression November 2011

On Nov 4, 2011, the depression will gain strength and almost become a cyclone. But it will not. It will start dissipating and the remnants of the system will drift to Oman and give it more rains on November 6, 7

Bay Of Bengal Storm November 2011 Update: Just a Low Pressure?

 We had predicted a big storm in the Bay of Bengal which would hit the Indian coast on November 11, 2011.  The latest forecasts are rather dampening. It will be a low pressure or may be a deep depression that will hit the Indian coast at the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on November 11th, 2011. Not very strong winds. But very heavy rains likely on November 12th, 2011 in north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh. Especially the areas near the coast.


Still 12-13 days to go. Anything can happen.....

Rain Forecast Map

November 12, 2011. Heavy rains lash coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh

Wind Speed Forecast Map

November 11, 2011. Not a big cyclone. May be a deep depression about to enter the Indian coast