Why Are The People Of Philippines So Afraid Of Typhoons? Answer: Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Philippines November 2013

AFTER HAIYAN NOT SURPRISING

The thirtieth named storm of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season, Haiyan originated from an area of low pressure several hundred kilometers east-southeast of Pohnpei in the Federated States of Micronesia on November 2, 2013. Tracking generally westward, environmental conditions favored tropical cyclogenesis and the system developed into a tropical depression the following day.

After becoming a tropical storm and attaining the name Haiyan at 0000 UTC on November 4, the system began a period of rapid intensification that brought it to typhoon intensity by 1800 UTC on November 5.

By November 6, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) assessed the system as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale; the storm passed over the island of Kayangel in Palau shortly after attaining this strength.

 It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone.

Haiyan is also the strongest storm recorded at landfall, and unofficially the strongest typhoon ever recorded in terms of wind speed. As of January 2014, bodies were still being found.

 At 1200 UTC on November 7, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the storm's maximum ten-minute sustained winds to 230 km/h (145 mph), the highest in relation to the cyclone.

The Hong Kong Observatory put the storm's maximum ten-minute sustained winds at 275 km/h (170 mph) prior to landfall in the central Philippines, while the China Meteorological Administration estimated the maximum two-minute sustained winds at the time to be around 78 m/s (280 km/h or 175 mph).

 At 1800 UTC, the JTWC estimated the system's one-minute sustained winds to 315 km/h (195 mph), unofficially making Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed based on wind speed.

After The Storm: Tacloban in Philippines

VIDEO: VISIONS OF HELL: THE HOWLING HAIYAN

Arabian Sea Storm May Hit Gujarat October 30, 2013. Is Cyclone HELEN Coming?

A storm will rise in the Arabian Sea. That much is for sure. Where it will go. Yesterday's forecasts said it would be Oman. Latest predictions say the depression will strike Gujarat (India) on October 30, 2013. Some forecasts say it might be a cyclone.

OCTOBER 29, 2013. HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE INTO GUJARAT

AS WE SAID BEFORE IT IS EARLY DAYS. THE STORM SYSTEM MAY WELL TURN INTO A FULL BLOWN CYCLONE. IT MAY MOVE TO OMAN, PAKISTAN OR THE INDIAN COAST. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE.

The present forecasts say that a low pressure area will form near the Kerala coast on October 24, 2013. It will strengthen and move north. Then it will gain power and move NW towards Oman. Once it is between the Indian and Omani coast it will turn into a cyclone and move towards Gujarat and hit it on October 30, 2013.

UPDATE: October 22, 2013

Latest forecasts say that the expected system will only be a weak low pressure area which will bring some rains to Mumbai at the end of the month.

A Rain Storm May Hit Oman On October 28, 2013

The SW monsoons have almost withdrawn from South Asia and one started thinking, well, the rain season is
 over. But the Arabian Sea may well spring a surprise if one goes by forecasts.

A low pressure area will develop near the Kerala coast on October 22, 2013 which will strengthen and move in a general NW direction across the Arabian Sea. It will (according to present forecasts) turn into a depression and hit Oman on October 28, 2013. What may follow is a deluge.


It is early days. Let us wait and watch.

OCTOBER 28, 2013. THE STORM IN THE ARABIAN SEA HITS OMAN

Two Low Pressure Areas: Rains In Oman And West Bengal Expected

XWF WEATHER PREDICTION MAP: SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY SHOWS THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS, ONE EACH IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA (WILL FORM ON MAY 30)

Today we shall talk about two low pressure areas (LPA). One in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of

Bengal. One has already formed. The other will take shape on May 30, 2013.

As we had forecasted earlier,  a low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal. We had also said that this system would make landfall two days later and bring heavy rains in Bangladesh and West Bengal. Well, there has been a slight change of plan. The LPA will not go straight into Bangladesh. But it will hover around for some time near the Orissa coast then move into land on May 29, 2013 at the Orissa-West Bengal border. It will then curve into West Bengal bringing heavy rains in the state for the next 3-4 days. North Bengal will get rains on June 1, 2013. Heavy rains, if I may so.
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Then the system will drench north Bangladesh on June 2, 2013. I am talking of Rangpur, Dinajpur, Panchgarh and Thakurgaon.

The Arabian Sea LPA will form on May 30, 2013. It will move along the Oman coast in a northerly direction, giving rains to the coastal areas. Muscat may get some rains on June 4-5, 2013. It may rain in Abu Dabhi, Dubai and Doha around May 6, 2013. Muscat will get some good showers on June 5-6, 2013.

Low Pressure Area To Bring Heavy Rains In Bangladesh And West Bengal Next Week

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY (MAY 25, 2013) SHOWS THE AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS NEAR THE MYANMAR COAST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THESE WILL GIVE BIRTH TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON MAY 27.

Bangladesh and West Bengal are in for a thorough drenching

next week. This will be as a result of a low pressure area that is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal on May 27, 2013.

Now this rain system will form a few hundred kilometers south of the Bangladesh coast.Then it will start moving northwards gradually in the next two days and make landfall on May 29, 2013.

Very heavy rains are forecast in SW Bangladesh on May 29. It will also rain heavily in Gangetic West Bengal on May 30.

After that the system will move into Assam on June 1, 2013.

The verdict? Very heavy rains in Bangladesh from May 29 to May 31.

Mumbai Is In For A Deluge From June 6, 2013

XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: JUNE 9, 2013: DELUGE APPROACHES MUMBAI

The monsoon is going to come early this year. And it is going to be vigorous.

Things are happening in the Bay of Bengal right now as monsoon winds enter it from the east. Within days Bay of Bengal is going to be laden with rain-bearing monsoon clouds.

Pre-monsoon showers are going to begin in the Indian west coast too within a few days. Dry Gujarat too will get light rains within a week.

But the forecast that interests us greatly is Mumbai. The metropolis is in for a huge deluge around June 9, 2013. This will be partly as a result of a Bay of Bengal low pressure area which will reach it on June 9. And partly because of a rain bearing system which is hovering around in the Arabian Sea since the last few days

This system will move towards the Oman coast in the next few days, bring southern Oman some rains on May 30, 2013. The system will then potter around near the Omani coast for some time and then start moving in an easterly direction towards the Indian coast.

June 9, 2013. The two systems will collide. And BOOM! Very heavy rains on the entire Indian west coast stretching from Gujarat to Goa. Mumbai will get very heavy rainfall for a few days.

Folks in Mumbai. Be prepared for a drenching on June 9, 2013.

Latest forecasts say the drenching in Mumbai will start from June 6, 2013 and continue for 5-6 days.

Keep reading this site for latest updates.

XWF-LRF: A CYCLONE (PHAILIN) MAY HIT OMAN ON JUNE 9. 2013.

XWF-LRF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: CYCLONE PHAILIN ABOUT TO HIT OMAN COAST: JUNE 9, 2013

According of our Long Range Forecasts, a cyclone (Phailin?) will strike Oman on June 9, 2013. The storm

will take shape off the Karnataka coast in India on June 6, 2013. It will then move in a NW direction, intensifying all the time and then cross the northern Oman coast  on June 9, 2013.

It will be according to XWF-LRF, a very powerful cyclone. Very strong winds and heavy rains are expected  in northern Oman on June 9, 2013.

Please note that this is a LRF and its accuracy is circumspect.

VERY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN OMAN ON JUNE 6, 2013

XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: JUNE 6, 2013: HEAVY RAINS IN SOUTHERN OMAN

We had predicted earlier that there would be some rains in southern Oman on May 30, 2013.

Well there is going to be some rain on May 30, 2013. But there have been new developments.

A rain bearing cloud system has been hovering around in south Arabian Sea for some days now. This system is going to slowly move towards the coast of southern Oman during the next seven days. Once it comes near the coast it will turn into a low pressure system (may be even a depression) and linger over the Arabian Sea near the coast for the next few days giving intermittent rains in southern Oman.

It is on June 6, 2013, that this system will move into Oman and then there will be a deluge for the next two days in southern Oman. Very heavy rains are likely in Sawqirah, Sharbatat, Duqm, Hayma, Marmul, Dawkah, Thamarit and Sadh on June 6-7.

Moderate winds may lash the south Oman coast in the first week of June. The sea is going to be rough.

XWF-LRF: HEAVY RAINS IN OMAN ON JUNE 12, 2013

XWF-LRF: Heavy rainfall in Oman on June 12, 2013

We are making our first LRF (Long Range Forecast). Heavy rains are likely in Oman on June 12, 2013.This

will be the result of a low pressure area formed in the Bay of Bengal on June 6, 2013. By then the monsoons will have set in the Bay of Bengal. This low pressure area will travel through India (Orissa, northern Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra) and then enter the Arabian Sea on June 9, 2013.

It will then move westwards and hit Oman on June 12, 2013.

Now please note that this is an long range forecast and prone to inaccuracy.

Let us wait and see how things pan out.

XWF-LRF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: COURSE (JUNE 7, 2013 TO JUNE 12, 2013) OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHICH WILL BRING RAINS TO OMAN ON JUNE 12, 2013.

A Rain System Will Touch Southern Oman On May 30, 2013

Presently things are very boring in the North Indian Ocean after the departure of MAHASEN. It is only in the end of the month that the SE monsoons will start approaching South Asia. But there is another interesting development in the Arabian Sea. No it is not a cyclone, nor even a depression.

But I am talking of the mass of rain-bearing clouds in south Arabian Sea. They have been there for quite a few days now. Initially it was expected that they will give birth to a substantial storm.

But forecasts now say the system will start moving gradually towards the coast of southern Oman and give some rains on May 30, 2013. It will rain heavily in the next two days in the sea off the coast. Then this system will move in a  NE direction and bring heavy rains to the Saurashtra (India) coast on May 6, 2013.

There are still some days to go. Will the rain system behave as we have predicted? Or will it change its mind and turn into something more substantial?

Let us wait and watch.

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map; May 30, 2013. Rainfall in southern Oman

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map: June 2, 2013. Heavy rains off the coast of southern Oman

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map: June 5, 2013. The system now reaches the Gujarat coast and brings heavy rains

SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON MAY ARRIVE EARLY THIS YEAR (2013)

A low pressure area will form on June 1, 2013 in the Bay of bengal. The map shows the predicted position around June 4, 2013. See also the heavy rains approaching Mumbai

Looks like the Arabian Sea is not going to throw up a tropical storm in May this year. May be MAHASEN has sucked off  all the moisture and  storm potential in the North Indian Ocean, leaving the Arabian Sea dry. A rain system may develop near the Horn of Africa around May 30, 2013, which will bring some rains to east Yemen and southern tip of Oman.

A notable development is the formation of a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal on June 1, 2013. The monsoons may come 5 days earlier this year as a result.

Now this low pressure area is likely to move northward and bring rains to Andhra, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Bihar and West Bengal after June 5th. Or the system may move in a NW direction; then the western states of India (Gujarat and Rajasthan) are in for a deluge.

Interestingly forecasts say heavy rain may occur in Mumbai on June 5th, 2013.

ARABIAN SEA MAY 2013: SITUATION FLUID: A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED

A great mass of dense clouds hover over southern Arabian Sea. This mass has a great potential of throwing out many possibilities. A low pressure area? A cyclone? A super cyclone? Where? Gujarat? Oman? Pakistan?

Conditions are very fluid and model forecasts are a little bewildered too. Hence different predictions with each forecast. One thing is certain. A low pressure area has formed in the southern Arabian Sea.

For those interested, latest forecasts say the low pressure area will potter around for a couple of days (May 20) and then head towards the coast of south Oman and hit it on May 22. 2013 near Sharbatal, Sawqirah and Marmul. These areas will receive heavy rains.

But as we said conditions are very unstable and so we shall have to wait and see what happens next

A TROPICAL STORM (PHAILIN?) TO STRIKE SOUTH OMAN ON MAY 25, 2013

The North Indian Ocean seems to throw out tropical storms by the handfuls this year. After the weak MAHASEN in the Bay of Bengal, forecasts say a new storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea.

Southern Arabian Sea has seen a mass of restless clouds since a few days. This system of rain-bearing clouds are going to spawn a storm around May 21, 2013.

GROUND ZERO: MAY 26, 2013

It will start very innocuously in the Arabian Sea, 1000 miles east of the Horn of Africa. A low pressure area will develop. This system will slowly drift NNW gaining strength gradually. Within a day or two it will churn up winds of about 40-50 kph. A depression.

This depression will keeping moving towards the south Oman coast gaining strength all the time. As it nears the coast on May 24-25, 2013, it will be cyclone strength. Winds of about 80-90 kph.

The tropical storm will hit the south Oman coast between Duqm and Sawqirah, on May 25-26, 2013, accompanied with strong winds and very heavy rains.

Since the maximum winds are forecasted to be about 80-90 kph one can safely label it a cyclone.

May be PHAILIN  cyclone is coming.

EXPECTED PATH OF ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM MAY 2013: MAY 22-MAY 26, 2013

LATEST MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE, MAY 13, 2013: To Intensify Next 2 Days To 130 Kmph, Hit Chittagong On May 17

Satellite image of "Mahasen" taken today at 12.30 PM (IST)

Now is the time that Mahasen will start curving NNE towards Bangladesh. And it is going to intensify further in the next two days into a big big storm. Contrary to what the IMD says,  Mahasen is going to be a very big storm. Its wind speeds will touch a mind boggling 130 kph on the 15th of May. Even when it hits Chittagong on the morning of May 17, it will throw a gale of a 100 kph.

The Bangladesh authorities have wisely started all precautions on a war footing.

It will be the strongest when it will be 400 kms south of Kolkata on May 15.

Mahasen is giving lots of rain on the Indian coast. It has been raining heavily in Andhra Pradesh since yesterday. Today the Tamil Nadu coast got a deluge.

Gangetic West Bengal and Bangladesh will receive very heavy rains from May 16.

XtremeWeather Forecast Map: Forecasted Psth of "MAHASEN"

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"MAHASEN" CYCLONE UPDATE MAY 10, 2013 (11.40 AM UTC): Big Big Storm In The Making Heading To Myanmar Finally: ALSO PROJECTED PATH MAP

ExtremeWeather Prediction Map: Projected path of Cyclone "Mahasen" according to JTWC.

CLICK HERE TO SEE LARGER IMAGE

Latest forecast by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)  says the long awaited tropical storm (We predicted it ten days before on May 1, 2013) in the Bay of Bengal has finally been spawned. JTWC has named it 01B. The low pressure area has grown up to a big storm.

Mahasen (when, IMD?) has grown into manhood .

JTWC says Mahasen is gonna  grow to a big storm with winds of knots (167 kmph). Maximum winds will be 110 knots (200 kmph). This is going to be on May 14, 2013 when Mahasen will be at its strongest. It is going to throw up waves of 10 feet in the sea. Nasty man this Mahasen is going to be.

Mahasen is likely to make landfall into Myanmar on May 15, 2013.

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The Indian Met Department issued this bulletin today at 07.15 PM (IST)
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 10th May 2013 near latitude 05.00N and longitude 92.00E, about 450 km south-southwest of Car Nicobar, 1250 km east-southeast of Trincomalee , 1550 km southeast of Chennai and 1900 km south of Chittagong. The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would move initially northwestwards during next 48 hrs. and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE MAY 7, 2013: Bangladesh On May 15

XtremeWeather Weather Forecast Map: May 15, 2013: MAHASEN about to strike the WB-Bangladesh coast. The yellow color is very heavy rainfall.

We had said once that Mother Nature is difficult to fathom. How true!

Latest forecast for forthcoming tropical storm "Mahasen" says it is going to be Bangladesh on May 15, 2013. (Aside: One wonders if it will be Myanmar next!).

The birth of MAHASEN will take place tomorrow in the Bay of Bengal as predicted before as a low pressure area. From May 11th, 2013, it will grow up into a tropical cyclone and move NNW for the next few days and make landfall on the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast on May 15, 2013.

Under its influence Orissa, West Bengal and Bangladesh will face strong winds and torrential rains from May 14th, 2013.

Keep reading this site for the twists and turn in the saga of big bad MAHASEN.

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The IMD had this to say today.....

An upper air cyclonic circulation over central parts of south Bay of Bengal extending upto mid ­tropospheric levels persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

MAHASEN UPDATE: MAY 7, 2013: Low Pressure Area To Form Tomorrow

Mahasen about to hit Andhra-Orissa coast on May 14th, 2013. The purple color means very strong winds.

Mahasen will take birth as a low pressure on May 8, 2013 ESE of the Sri Lankan coast. It will then just toddle around more or less stationary for the next three days. On May 11, 2013 the low pressure area will start gaining strength and turn into a cyclone. It will be christened "Mahasen" then. On May 11, 2013.

It will move  in a NNW direction  and and then northwards move  towards Visakhapatnam. Tamil Nadu escapes from its fury altogether according to latest forecasts. It will slam into the Andhra-Orissa border at Gopal-At-Sea on  May 14, 2013 and then lose power. Coastal Orissa (Gopal-on-sea) will bear the brunt of the fury.

Mahasen will have maximum winds of about 100 Kmph. Pretty powerful stuff that.

The rains?  Tamil Nadu will get some rains. Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal, Bangladesh, and NE states will get most of the deluge from May 13, 2013.. Heavy rains in these areas till the 20th of May, 2013. Floods would be better word.

Winds? Strong gales on the Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts from May 14, 2013.

XtremeWeather Map: Latest Projected Path Of Cyclone Mahasen: May 10 to May 14, 2013

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The Metoffice, UK's weather department, has given this forecast for Mahasen....


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.05.2013

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 :  6.3N  82.5E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.05.2013   6.3N  82.5E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.05.2013   6.7N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.05.2013   7.4N  81.3E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.05.2013   6.9N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.05.2013   7.4N  81.2E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.05.2013   7.0N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.9N  81.7E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.05.2013  10.3N  85.5E   MODERATE     LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.05.2013  11.6N  84.9E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.05.2013  13.2N  84.9E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

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XtremeWeather Rain Forecast Map Because Of Mahasen

Is MAHASEN Going To Drag Monsoon Early To South Asia?

This is the XtremeWeather Rain prediction map for May 22, 2013

This is not a figment of our imagination. We speak only after seeing the rain forecast maps of May 22, 2013. It shows lots of rains in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal areas of the Indian Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, and the entire North east India.

When it rains in such a large stretch of territory, it is not the work of local thunderstorms but of good ole monsoon.

Early monsoon this year?

XtremeWeather Rain Prediction Map May 15 to May 23, 2013

MAY 6, 2013: CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE: To Make Landfall Near Visakhapatnam May 12, 2013

The forecast for the hour remains basically the same. Mahasen will form as a low pressure area east of the Sri Lankan coast on May 8, 2013. It will then move in a north westerly direction towards Chennai then swing northwards touching the Andhra coast near Vizag on May 12, 2013.

After that it will start weakening below cyclone strength and move along the coast bringing heavy rains to coastal Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal, Bangladesh and Indian NE states for the next four days.

Very heavy rains are likely in the areas mentioned. Call it a deluge if you like.

Mahasen is going to be a big storm.

XtremeWeather Forecast Map: Predicted path of Cyclone MAHASEN, May 8, 2013 to May  13, 2013.

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One of our readers, Rao,  has written in a very valuable technical piece of forecast for MAHASEN. We quote part of his contribution.

Mahasen’ super cyclone forecast for Andhra Pradesh:2013, may 8-15 Andhra Pradesh super cyclonic storm ‘Mahasen’: (a) SOI will be within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index will be in enhanced 2 or 3 phase (c) nino3 will have negative value
Note 1: 2010, may 17-20 ‘Laila’ has not become super cyclone due to MJO index is in suppressed 4 phase. However ‘Mahasen’ will attain super cyclonic strength due to favorable energetic 2 or 3 phase enhanced MJO index before crossing Andhra Pradesh coast.

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The Indian Met. Dept. has this to say today....(May 6, 2013)

♦  A low pressure area may develop  over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours