Cyclone NILOFAR: How Will It Affect India and Pakistan?

Latest Infra-Red Satellite Image of Cyclone Nilofar : 1200 HRS GMT, October 29, 2014

The lady is in the Arabian Sea throwing out winds howling at 200-230 Kph. Cyclone Nilofar is slowly inching towards land. The lands affected will be India and Pakistan.

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LATEST UPDATE: The cyclone will start weakening from tomorrow (Thursday)

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The winds will be worst at the Kachchh and Sindh coast. The IMD says they will be 80-100 Kph. That is much better than 200 Kph. Look what Hudhud did to Vizag.

The winds will start from Thursday afternoon and continue till Saturday. Worst will be on Friday. Karachi is in for a battering with 100 Kph winds. Dwarka and Kachchh districts will get off with 60-80 Kph winds. But northern Kachchh (Koteshwar) will get a 100 Kph hammering.

The ports of Okha, Jamnagar (Bedi and Sikka), Navlakhi, Kandla, Mundra, Kandla will feel winds of 50-70 Kph on Friday

 Nilofar is going to bring rains. The heaviest will be in Sindh (Karachi included). Kachchh will get off with slightly less rain. Vagaries of nature!

Heaviest rains are expected in Sindh (SE parts, Karachi included). Flooding may occur.

In India rains are expected in Kachchh, west and north Rajasthan (heaviest around Bikaner and Jaisalmer). Showers expected even in Jaipur, Haryana and Delhi on November 1-2, 2014.

Rain Forecast Map: Cyclone Nilofar: From now till November 2, 2014

Total rainfall from Cyclone Nilofar: Where and how much?

Latest Update: Cyclone Nilofar: Is Strongest Now: Gusting At 230 Kph

Nilofar will make landfall here on November 1, 2014, early morning (IST)

Contrary to expectations, Cyclone Nilofar did not turn into a Category 4 Hurricane. It is at its strongest now. It is about 900 kms from Karachi and 400 SW of Masirah in Oman. It has average winds of about 195 Kph, gusting up to 230 Kph.

It has started curving now towards the Gujarat-Sindh border which it will hit on Saturday (November 1, 2014) early morning (IST and PST) at Koteshwar in Kachchh (India). It will hit land with winds of 80-90 Kph gusting up to 110 Kph. This what the JTWC predicts.

There is some disagreement between the JTWC and GFS about the cyclone.

GFS forecasts say Nilofar will hit Naliya (Gujarat) on Friday (October 31, 2014). That is a day earlier.

Either way, coastal Sindh is in for very strong winds and rains. As is northern Kachchh.

The rains will start from tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and will increase all the time.

Flooding will happen in Sindh. Heavy rains expected in NW Rajasthan (Jaisalmer, Bikaner). The rains will reach Haryana and some showers in Delhi too.

NILOFAR UPDATE: 2:30 PM GMT Oct.28,2014: Cyclone Nilofar To Turn Into Category 4 Storm (Super Cyclone) Tomorrow

Nilofar is going to be bigger than expected. In an earlier update we had hinted at a Category 3 Hurricane. The lady is going to be a bigger killer than expected. A Category 4 storm.

Yes, come tomorrow morning and it will turn into a massive storm with winds of 230-280 Kph. We can safely call it a super cyclone. (The IMD says winds above 222 Kph makes a super cyclone). Thank God that it is not going to hit Oman!

That is what the JTWC says in its latest bulletin at 3 PM, GMT, October 28, 2014.

Though NOAA says it will be strongest with only 195 Kph winds by tomorrow evening. That would make it a Category 3 hurricane.

The update adds that it will weaken a lot before landfall at Narayan Sarovar in Kachchh (Gujarat) on Saturday afternoon (November 1, 2014). The winds will be about 75 Kph gusting up to 90 Kph

VIDEO: BIRTH OF A MONSTER: CYCLONE NILOFAR TODAY (OCTOBER 28, 2014)

Cyclone Nilofar Will Weaken Before Hitting Kachchh-Sindh: Strong Winds To Lash Oman Tomorrow

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Cyclone Nilofar on Thursday evening. It will be at its strongest then. After that it will rapidly weaken before landfall

Nilofar cyclone may throw up awesome winds of 200-240 Kph tomorrow but by the time it makes landfall at Kachchh-Sindh it will weaken considerably.

Both the GFS forecast and JTWC forecast agree that the storm will weaken before landfall.

The GFS says landfall will be on October 31, 2014.

JTWC says it will be on November 1, 2014.

Both agree that at landfall winds will be about 65-90 Kph.

Nilofar will bring rains to Kachchh (Gujarat) and southern Sindh. Karachi is in for rains and winds of 80 Kph on October 31-November 1.

What about Oman? Cyclone Nilofar is not going to hit Oman. It will receive some rains and strong winds of 80-90 Kph tomorrow.

Nilofar Update: Tuesday: October 28, 2014: Cyclone Will Turn Into A Category 3 Storm Tomorrow

Cyclone Nilofar is a big storm. Make no mistake about it. No wonder the Gujarat government is on its toes. Tomorrow morning it will turn into a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 200 Kph gusting up to a massive 240 Kph.

Till Wednesday morning (GMT) it will move in a northerly direction. By the evening it will have started changing direction and making a curve towards Gujarat.

On November 1, 2014 (Saturday) it will make landfall at Narayan Sarovar in Kachchh, Gujarat. The winds then will be 85 Kph gusting up to 100 Kph. The JTWC forecast says Cyclone Nilofar will weaken by landfall. Small mercies for Gujarat.

But even winds of 80-100 Kph is nothing to sneeze at. Not to forget the torrential rainfall which will lash entire Kachchh for 24 hours.

The latest track path forecast for Cyclone NILOFAR according to the JTWC