Cyclone FANTALA April 2016: Latest Updates

Track CYCLONE FANTALA Live

FINAL UPDATE:APRIL 21, 2016

Within 24 hours the weakening tropical cyclone will again move course roughly westward and pass the northern tip of Madagascar on April 24/25. There is little chance of it threatening Mauritius in any way.

The infrared image of the storm was taken at 0200 hours GMT today.

UPDATE: APRIL 20, 2016

Cyclone Fantala is steadily weakening and will continue to do so. It is now moving ESE. After a few days it will drift back in a WNW direction, passing the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25. It may then fizzle out mid sea or bring rainfall to the Tanzania-Mozambique border coast later. The only land area it may affect is Saint Brandon, the little isle north of Mauritius.

Interestingly forecast models are hinting at a new tropical storm in the southern Indian Ocean around April 25. This possibility is supported by NOAA in its fortnightly outlook (See map below)

UPDATE: APRIL 19, 2016

After becoming the strongest tropical cyclone recorded in the Indian Ocean (North and Southern) on April 18 with one minute sustained winds of 275 km/h, FANTALA is now weakening and moving in a southeasterly direction.

It will move so till April 23 after which it will again change direction and move west. It will hit the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25/26 as a tropical storm.

Going by present forecasts, the threat to Mauritius and Rodrigues seems to be receding.

Fantala is weakening as the latest satellite image ( April 19, 0300 hours GMT) shows

Latest track forecast for Fantala

UPDATE: APRIL 17, 2016

Fantala is presently a furious storm, with 240 km/h winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It lies about 1100 kilometres NW of Mauritius.

Reliable forecast models now agree that within 24-48 hours the cyclone will swing southeasterly. It may pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues on April 23, 2016. A direct hit on Rodrigues is not ruled out.

The cyclone is expected to weaken considerably in the coming days after April 19.

Satellite image 0730 hours GMT, April 17, 2016

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UPDATE APRIL 16, 2016. 

Even reliable forecast models are giving erratic predictions at every update. There is a possibility that cyclone Fantala might hover around about 500 kilometres NW of Mauritius for a week then weaken and make landfall into northeastern Madagascar.

But we still believe that the storm will swing southeasterly on April 19 and hit Rodrigues island on 22-23rd.

Meanwhile Fantala has intensified into a category 4 hurricane with winds that the JTWC expects to touch a whopping 130 knots (240 km/h). It presently lies about 800 kilometres north of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST ISSUED TODAY 

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UPDATE APRIL 15, 2016 - There is little change in the forecast scenario since yesterday. Fantala will continue west till April 18 as a category 3 hurricane and then swing down and move southeasterly henceforth. A direct hit on Rodrigues is possible on April 22, 2016. But by then the cyclone will have weakened considerably to a category 1 or maybe just a tropical storm.

MPE IMAGE OF CYCLONE FANTALA APRIL 15, 2016. 0600 HOURS GMT 

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UPDATE APRIL 14, 2016 - Fantala is well on its way in turning into a category 4 monster hurricane soon as it moves west. Track forecasts indicate a abrupt change in direction on April 17-18. It will weaken slightly and move southeasterly. It is to be seen if it moves betwixt Mauritius and Rodrigues or hits Rodrigues directly. This will happen on April 21.

INFRARED IMAGE APRIL 14, 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE FANTALA 0200 GMT 

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Update April 13, 2016 - All forecast models agree on Fantala's future for the next 4 days. It will move westerly in the Southern Indian Ocean, intensifying all the time and reach the northernmost tip of Madagascar. The European model ECMWF, envisages it attaining a central pressure of 945 Mb. A category 5 hurricane.

Then from April 17-18 it will abruptly change direction and move southeasterly and move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island on April 21. It will have weakened quite a bit by then. This part of the forecast is prone to change. A little shift and a direct hit on either Mauritius or Rodrigues will happen

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Update: April 12, 2016 - Cyclone Fantala has formed. It lies about 650 kilometres south of Diego Garcia and is moving west. It will continue doing so for the next 3-4 days and then will abruptly change direction and move south or south-easterly. Present forecasts say it will hit Rodrigues Island on April 20 but Mauritius cannot be deemed safe as the forecast track has been changing all the time.

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Update: April 11, 2016 - The cyclone is presently a low pressure area south of Diego Garcia. It is strengthening all the time. Our guess is it will become a tropical cyclone by April 14. As to its track, the picture is nebulous. But forecast models at present are predicting that it will pass by Mauritius/Rodrigues Island around April 20.

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We have already warned on our Twitter page about a possible tropical cyclone brewing in the southern Indian Ocean in the coming days. We had also said the cyclone Fantala was unlikely to affect Mauritius, La Reunion islands.

But recent forecasts by reliable computer forecast models hint at the possibility of Fantala turning into a massive 946 Mb storm which will hover near the northeastern coast of Madagascar by April 17, 2016.

History says any tropical cyclone in that area tends to move south or southeasterly. Hence the possibility of Fantala hitting Mauritius or La Reunion is quite strong. The GFS model envisages a massive monster hitting the isle nation.

It is also possible that the storm may move through the northern tip of Madagascar and crash into Mozambique or southern coastal Tanzania. The ECMWF model supports this scenario.

The forecast image shows the cyclone's position on April 17.

Latest satellite images of cyclone Fantala 

MASCAREIGNES CYCLONE TO BE NAMED "JOALANE"

UPDATE: APRIL 7, 2015

 Cyclone Joalane is going to continuously intensify and turn into a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. Presently according to conservative estimates it is throwing out winds of 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It lies about 825 kms north-east of Mauritius. Even at this distance, 30 kph winds are lashing Mauritius now. It will pass closest to Mauritius on April 10 (Friday) night (Local Time). The eye of the cyclone will be about 750 kms east of the island then.

 Cyclone 21S in the southern Indian Ocean has been named cyclone Ikola. So the expected cyclone in the Mascareignes will be named cyclone JOALANE.

Ikola will have no impact on Mascareignes whatsoever as we have mentioned earlier. Ikola has intensified earlier so it looks bigger. But make no mistake Joalane is the storm to watch out for. Ikola will peter out in 48 hours. Joalane is expected to turn into something nasty.

 JTWC PREDICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WILL HIT RODRIGUES WITH 180 KPH WINDS The JTWC has declared that Storm 91S is now tropical cyclone 22S. It for s intensifying all the time. Present sustained winds are 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph.

 The cyclone is not likely to hit Mauritius directly but Rodrigues is in for it on April 11, 2015. 22S being a slow moving storm, the rough weather in the Mascareignes will continue for a week. Though Mauritius will not be directly hit such a large storm even 500 kms away will stir up things. The JTWC predicts 22S will peak on April 10 with sustained winds of 180 kph, gusts up to 230 kph. A big storm.

Future cyclone Joalane is intensifying. It will intensify continuously for the next 72 hours into a Cat 3 hurricane. The GFS expects Joalane to stay about 500 kms away from Mauritius at all times. It predicts a direct hit on Rodrigues on April 9-10. The European model predicts a path closer to Mauritius but one expects it will agree with the GFS forecast eventually. We will bring the latest updates.

ECMWF DIFFERS ON CYCLONE JOALANE TRACK WITH GFS There is some confusion as to the exact track of cyclone Joalane. The two major forecast models are saying slightly different things. The GFS as we mentioned earlier says the cyclone will keep its distance from Mauritius at all times. 500 kms at least. In contrast the latest forecast issued by the ECMWF at 0000 hours GMT today predicts the periphery of cyclone Joalane will pass through Mauritius on April 11-13, 2015. We have found that generally the GFS predictions prevail. Anyway we will keep you informed. The storm lies about 780 kms north-east of Mauritius now. It will not move eastwards anymore, but stay nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. After which it will intensify into a powerful cyclone and move south.

SEE CYCLONE JOALANE LIVE

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR CYCLONE JOALANE

Latest satellite image of SW Indian Ocean taken at 0530 hours GMT today. 

Early Storm Prediction: March 23, 2015: Cyclone Possible In Southern Indian Ocean By Month End

See Southern Indian Ocean Storm 91S Live

The powerful Pam has become history. The persistent Cyclone Nathan makes its final landfall into Australia's northern Territory. But in a week there is another tropical storm in the offing.

A cyclone is brewing in the southern Indian Ocean and is likely to form on March 29, 2015 a a few hundred kilometres north-east of Rodrigues Island. Present forecasts say the cyclone will move south-easterly and so poses no threat to Mascareignes. Keep in touch for the latest.

Storm 90S May Spell Cyclone Trouble For Mascareignes

Update: February 21, 2015

The ECMWF has turned bearish on upcoming cyclone Glenda affecting Mascareignes. It believes Glenda will move southwards before entering the waters.

The GFS in contrast is still bullish. It believes 90S will move towards Rodrigues Island and then start intensifying rapidly. The Island is in for a thorough thrashing by Glenda on February 26, 2015. After which it will turn south thus sparing Mauritius.
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It is possible that cyclone Glenda has already been born. It is called 90S by NOAA and lay at 20.3°S 99.7°E at 0000 hours today south of Diego Garcia in the Southern Indian Ocean.

This storm, if forecasts are to be believed, will take a long time to form. It is only after 5-6 days that it will gain cyclone strength. Its movement will be confounding and haphazard. It will move east first then start curving and move towards Mascareignes.

Forecast models are divided. The GFS predicts future cyclone Glenda will move towards Mascareignes but then swerve south and miss even Rodrigues island. The ECMWF says no such luck. Glenda is going to slam into the aforementioned group of islands. Or move very close to them.

It is certain that 90S is going to turn into a very powerful storm called cyclone Glenda in the coming days.

THE MASSIVE SWIRLING MASS OF CLOUDS NORTH-EAST OF MASCAREIGNES IS STORM 90S, FUTURE CYCLONE GLENDA

Cyclone Eunice Will Not Affect Mauritius, Reunion: Some Effect On Rodrigues Island

CYCLONE EUNICE WILL NOT AFFECT MAURITIUS, REUNION. SOME INFLUENCE ON RODRIGUES: It is going to be a big storm. If JTWC is to be believed, in the next two days it will turn into a cyclone with winds of 220 kph. We believe it will easily be in excess of 150 kph. The storm is 1040 kilometers North-east of Mauritius now (0615 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015). Wind speed is 90 kph.

RELEVANT TO FOLKS IN THE MASCAREIGNES: Cyclone Eunice, however big it will turn out to be, will not affect Mauritius or Reunion. Some showers in Mauritius tomorrow morning perhaps. Otherwise nothing. Rodrigues Island will be somewhat affected. But not in the measure of Bansi. There will be incessant light rains in the island for the next 48 hours, with maximum winds of 50 kph. Not more. That is because Cyclone Eunice is not going to come close to Rodrigues Island. Only the outer periphery will affect.

The cyclone will move first in a SE direction then in a easterly direction. The satellite image below was taken at 0530 hours GMT today.

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015

1/24/2014 Update: Southern Indian Ocean To Throw Up Cyclones DIAMONDRA And EUNICE Soon

Update 0730 Hours GMT, January 24, 2015

We had already warned a few days ago that the southern Indian Ocean was in ferment and was going to spawn a cyclone or two soon. Latest forecasts say this will happen by the end of the month. Tropical cyclones Diamondra and Eunice are coming soon in this ocean.

Diamondra will be formed first. About 1000 kilometers ENE of Rodrigues Island on January 28, 2014. In a day or two it will intensify and move in a general south-easterly direction. Later it will move south. At its strongest it will have sustained winds of 100+ kph. Central pressure of 980. Its path will be such that it will not affect any inhabited islands. Mauritius, Reunion nor Rodrigues will not be affected by Cyclone Diamondra.

Cyclone Eunice will form next, two days later a few hundred kilometers north of Mauritius. It will start intensify and move eastwards first then in a SE direction. On February its periphery will lash Rodrigues Island. Eunice at its zenith will throw out winds of 120+ kph. Mauritius or Reunion are not expected to be affected. But it is too early to say that with any certainty. Please keep reading our updates.

These two cyclones will be spawned from the present three low pressure areas that are bobbing around in the south Indian Ocean. One of them (NOAA calls it 96S) is near Mascareignes and under its influence rains are lashing the islands.(Please see map below). This 96S presently lies about 600 kilometers north of Mauritius.

Future Possible Super Cyclone Bansi Has Been Born As 92S In SW Indian Ocean

Update: December 9, 2015

The monster has been spawned. Possible super storm 'Bansi' (NOAA calls it 92S) was born yesterday evening just a few hundred kilometers north-west of the Mascareignes. It lies now (At 0000 Hours, GMT, December 9, 2015) at 18.9 South and 53.9 East. Pressure 1007 Mb. An innocuous little 'low'. In a day or two it will start transforming into a massive super-cyclone, if some forecast models are to be believed.

The storm has been born very near Mauritius and Reunion. That is worrying as we have already discussed before. There is little response time between the official storm warning and the actual cyclone hit. Anyway.

What is frightening is that the normally reticent ECMWF Model predicts Bansi will be a cyclone with a central pressure of 932 Mb. A massive powerful storm with a diameter that would cover the entire peninsular India. Big. Big. The lower the central pressure the more intense the storm. Simply put, it mean stronger winds. Real bad news.

The only good news is that Bansi will turn into a monster only after it leaves the Mascareignes. Some consolation. Latest GFS forecasts say when Bansi will be moving over Mauritius it have winds in excess of 150 kph.. Yeah. The latest forecast bulletin, issued at 0000 hours GMT today, says Bansi is going to hit Mauritius head on.

Time of impact? Morning of January 13, 2015. Coming Tuesday morning.

The storm will turn into a tropical cyclone on January 12, 2015. Monday. Three days to go. We suggest that instead of waiting for the official confirmation of Bansi, start making preparations for a 150 kph storm in the coming days. That includes folks in Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues Island. Because the cyclone may make a direct hit anywhere.

Cyclone Chedza

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on january 13, 2015.


Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

Infra-Red Images of 92S taken at 0300 hours GMT, today (January 9, 2015)

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY: January 3, 2015: Cyclone Lam And Linda Imminent In Australia Around January 10, 2015

Update: January 3, 2015

Upcoming Cyclone Lam And Linda

Within 24 hours future tropical cyclone Lam will be born as a low pressure area in the Timor Sea in South-Eastern Indian Ocean. The storm will struggle to intensify into something bigger because of the unfavourable wind shear. But around January 10 it will manage to turn into a cyclone. Lam. It is expected to make landfall between Broome and Onslow in Western Australia and move right through the territory. On January 13 it will exit from the Australian land mass at Great Victorian Desert and Nullarbor Plains. The entire province of Western Australian will receive rains.

Another cyclone is expected to form almost simultaneously in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. So it hard to say which of the storms will be Lam and Linda. The one in Western Australia or the one in Queensland? Now this storm will make landfall at Karumba in Queensland. It will then  move across the province and move into Pacific Ocean on January 12 between Mackay and Rockhampton. It will then move close along the coast for a day and swing away towards New Zealand. Brisbane will get a lashing from the storm on January 13. New Zealand may face a cyclone on January 14, 2015.

It is also possible that a storm may come from Papua New Guinea and hit the Queensland coast on January 10 near Townsville.

There are many complex factors at play so being 100% certain is difficult but it is certain that a cyclone is coming Australia's way soon. When? Where? We have outlined the possibilities.

See a tropical storm developing near Australia. LIVE.

South Western Indian Ocean

Presently a depression is moving around in circles in the Mozambique Channel. It will continue doing so for a few days more without strengthening into a storm. The conditions are not favouring it. Strong wind shear is preventing it to move away from its present area. So it is zigzagging around bringing lots of rains in coastal Mozambique and Madagascar.

Come January 14, 2015 and the South Western Indian Ocean may throw up two cyclones. One in the Mozambique Channel and one near Mascarene Islands. The former will make landfall into Mozambique around January 17-18. At the same time the second storm will move through Rodrigues Island and then move further south. So Rodrigues Island is in for a direct hit. Mauritius and La Reunion will feel the periphery of the cyclone.

Seems like Cyclones Bansi and Chedza are coming calling in mid January, 2015.

January 2, 2015: XWF-WEATHER FORECAST Summary: Cyclone Lam To Hit Western Australian On January 7, 2015.

Update: January 2, 2015

• Tropical Cyclone 'Lam' is on. The seas around north Australian coast (Darwin) in Timor Sea are tumultuous. A 'Low' Pressure area will form in a day or two which will turn into Lam on January 7. Lam will make landfall near the western Australian coast at Hedland and then traverse through Western Australia.
• Lam will prove a boon for the parched desert regions in Western Australia as it will bring heavy rains. The accompanying winds will be less than welcome to the mining industry.
• Another cyclone 'Linda' may form in the Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. It may cross over into the Coral Sea.
• A Depression (97S) in the Mozambique Channel is bringing  and will continue to bring heavy rains to Madagascar for another week.
• Two storms are likely to from in mid-January in the South-West Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel:  Another in Southern Indian Ocean which is likely to affect Rodrigues Island.

December 30, 2014: Today's Forecasts In A Nut-Shell

LATEST XWF-WEATHER FORECASTS: A SUMMARY

Depression 95B has proved to have more stamina than expected. It is braving the cold waters as it ascends the latitudes in the Bay of Bengal. Likely to dissipate by January 2, 2015. Rains expected in east coast of India and Bangladesh.

Jangmi will not intensify much but will reach Thailand as a rain-maker. 

Kate goes strong as a category 3 hurricane tearing down the S Indian Ocean. Will start weakening soon.

North West Australia faces Cyclone Lam on January 6, 2015. Even Perth will be affected.

The Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, Reunion) will have a depression first (Or a cyclone) than may be a big cyclone on January 15-16, 2015.

A Vigorous Southern Indian Ocean May Throw Out A Couple Of Big Cyclones In Next 15 Days: Lam Coming To Australia

Update: December 30, 2014

Mother Earth May be hurtling blizzards and Arctic blasts in North Asia, Europe and North America but when it comes to the tropics, the Southern Indian Ocean reigns supreme. This active ocean already has a category 3 hurricane 'Kate' hurtling down south. In the next fifteen days it may engender two more tropical cyclones. Especially tropical cyclone 'Lam' which is expected to hit the western coast of Australia in early January, 2015.

Even as Kate will be in her death throes on January 2, 2015, another storm will come into being in the Mozambique Channel. This storm already exists as a low hugging the Afrian coast. In the next two days it will start intensifying and move around southern Madagascar. This storm may remain a deep depression, possibly a borderline cyclone.  Though this will not move north towards the Mascareignes, another depression (A potential cyclone) will come visiting the area on January 7, 2015. This depression now lies as a 'low' some hundred kilometers SW of Diego Garcia presently.

What is more interesting is the possibility of a big bad cyclone hitting western Australia in early January. Cyclone Lam will form on January 6, 2015 off the coast of North-West Australia between Broome and Karratha. Lam is going to be a big storm. Central pressure of 973 Mb. Exmouth will be badly hit with winds of 150 kph. The storm will not make landfall but move along the west coast of the country. Geraldton and Perth will too be affected.

That is not all. On January 12 a low pressure area will form north of Mauritius and will then start intensifying rapidly. Mauritius and La Reunion can expect a big cyclone on January 15-16.

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE '2S' Update: NOVEMBER 29, 2014: 500 Kms From Mauritius: Will Intensify Into A 75-90 Kmph Storm Tonight

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

CYCLONE '2S' UPDATE: NOVEMBER 29, 2014

The cyclone is 500 Kms NE of Mauritius now. (0200 Hrs GMT). Wind speed is 62 Kmph. Tonight (Mauritius time) it will intensify to winds of 75-90 Kmph. It will change direction and move between Mauritius and Rodigues Island.

The good news is that since the cyclone will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island the wind impact on these two island will be less. Tomorrow early morning Mauritius will have winds of 45-55 Kmph. Rodigues will be harder hit. Winds of 55 Kmph gusts up to 60 Kmph.

Compared to Mauritius, Rodigues will experience heavier rainfall.

It is unfortunate that the MMS is not calling the cyclone a cyclone just because of irrelevant technicalities. The JTWC has name it a cyclone, the MMS should follow suit, so that the people understand the gravity of the storm.

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YESTERDAY

NOAA has declared the storm a "Topical Cyclone Two". According to its observations the storm had wind speed of 65+ Kmph at 1200 Hrs GMT today. 

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28. 2014

The depression is 550 Kms North-East of Mauritius now. 0445 Hours GMT. Wind speeds of 55 Kmph. A deep depression is what met guys call it. Just a step away from a cyclone. Forecasts say it will intensify in a few hours. It will throw winds up to 70-80 Kmph. Technically it should be named a cyclone (Bansi) then. But if the MMS folks are as stingy as the Indian Met guys in naming storms, it will not be named.

By the time it passes Mauritius (It will pass from the east  about 50-100 Kms) on Sunday late evening it will be weakened to a depression. Rodrigues Island will face stronger winds and heavier rainfall than Mauritius as the storm will pass right through the island. Mauritius will have intermittent showers till Tuesday. Rodrigues will see heavy precipitation.

STORM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 0600 HRS GMT TODAY. WINDS OF 45-75 KMPH

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SPECIAL UPDATE November 27

The JTWC has taken cognizance of the storm. it says the possibility of it turning into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression lies about 850 kms NE of Mauritius. Winds are 55 kmph. Location: 13.2 S, 66.2 E at 0000 hours GMT today. There is no significant change as to its future course from the earlier update.

It's location now is 13.58 S, 64.91 E (0400 Hrs GMT). That is about 800 kms NE of Mauritius.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0300 HOURS (GMT)

SPECIAL UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Latest model forecasts indicate that the depression that lies about 1000 NE of Mauritius is going to intensify more than expected. It is already throwing winds of 55 kmph to 65 knph. By Friday this will rise to 75-85 kmph. The threshold for the Met guys at Mauritius is 65 kmph to name it "Bansi". Let us see when they do the christening. My suspicion is even the JTWC folks will jump in soon.

The storm will not intensify very much. It will weaken by the time its winds start lashing Mauritius by Friday night. Anyway there is going to be a lot of rainfall in the island till December 2, 2014. And winds of course. There may be wind gusts of 65 kmph.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The depression lay at Latitude 12 South, longitude 68.9 East at 0000 Hrs, GMT today. It has average winds of 55 Kmph gusting up to 65 Kmph. In the next few days it will move towards Mauritius. Latest forecasts say it is unlikely to intensify any further. Looks like the Met guys at MMC are not going to christen it "Bansi". The system will reach Mauritius shores on Saturday.

IR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT , NOV 26, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

There is a large swirling mass of clouds in the Indian Ocean below Diego Garcia Islands. Only the environment is not very favourable for it to transform into a big storm. Nevertheless, the system sustains. Presently it lies at 9.9 degrees south latitude,  70.3 degrees east longitude with winds of 45 Kmph gusting up to 55 Kmph. It is a depression now and lies 400 Kms SSW of the British Indian Ocean islands. It has moved westward in the last 24 hours. . Over the next few days it will move SW towards Mauritius. It will rapidly intensify into a 75-90 Kmph cyclone on November 30, near Mauritius. Very heavy rains are likely in Mauritius in November end. About 10 inches.

Nov 25, 0600 GMT:  has remained more or less stationary. Wind speeds have reached 55 Kmph. Location: Latitude: 10.3 S, Longitude: 70.3 E

An Infra-Red Image of the system taken today at 0400 hours GMT

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LATEST UPDATE NOV 24, 2014

CYCLONE "BANSI" WILL HIT MAURITIUS ON NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 1, 2014 WITH 80-100 KMPH WINDS

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: DECEMBER 1, 2014: MAURITIUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER DEPRESSION WHILE CYCLONE BANSI IS APPROACHING.

The Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka extending till Indonesia is in ferment. Very unstable atmosphere. Out of this turbulence three storms are going to emerge. One will move to south India and Sri Lanka and give these areas a thorough drenching. The other two will move into southern Indian Ocean.

We have been talking of cyclone Bansi for a while now. The low pressure has already formed. It lies 250 Kms SSE of British Indian Ocean Islands throwing up winds of 35 Kmph.

This system will intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours and move towards Mauritius. Chances are the depression will not intensify into cyclone strength. It will affect Mauritius and Reunion Islands on November 28, 2014. Winds will be 50-60 Kmph. A borderline case between a cyclone and a depression.

WHAT IS NOTABLE is another system will follow this depression in its wake. That will be cyclone Bansi. A stronger storm, it will reach cyclone status on November 29, the time the earlier depression will be drenching Mauritius. Present indications are Cyclone Bansi will hit Mauritius, perhaps in early December.

SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE

Cyclone CHEDZA To Follow Bansi?

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

A RARE GFS FORECAST MAP: DECEMEBER 3, 2014 SHOWS 2 STORMS IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN TOGETHER. ON THE RIGHT STORM CHEDZA. ON THE LEFT REMNANTS OF BANSI DRENCHING MAURITIUS AND REUNION

The South Indian Ocean seems to be like an angry god hurtling storms. Forecasts say another cyclone will follow Bansi. In fact the two storms will move together in the ocean at the same time, if the forecasts are to be believed!

The good news is that Chedza will not follow in Bansi's path but move south, far away from Mauritius.

May be Cyclone Chedza is coming soon. It is likely to form in the same area that Bansi was formed. Off the Indonesian coast. Likely to strengthen on November 29, when Bansi will be knocking on the doors of Mauritius.

Chedza like a good boy will move south away from populated areas and head down straight into the incessant powerful westerlies.

Chedza will be smaller than Bansi.

Early days now. let us wait and watch.

LATEST CYCLONE BANSI UPDATES

LATEST UPDATES: After Adjali, Cyclone BANSI. To Form November 25, 2014 In South Indian Ocean

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI AS SEEN ON NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The South Indian Ocean seems to be on over drive. Just as cyclone Adjali peters out another storm, BANSI, is going to form.

Bansi will form near the British Diego Garcia Islands. It will attain storm status on November 26, 2014. That is it will be christened Bansi. This cyclone is going to go a long long way deep south into the Indian ocean. A journey of thousand of kms and of almost a week.

A few days we have been warning of the possibility of cyclone Bansi, but we could not say for sure as the forecast was not backed up more models. But now it is confirmed. Cyclone Bansi is coming howling into the vast south Indian ocean.

The European model had hinted at the possibility many days back. Many of you had asked if we were sure. But we had clearly stated the position as it was then. But latest forecasts by the GFS confirms  the cyclone.

The genesis of the storm lies in the disturbed area of the Indian Ocean that lies NE of the present storm Adjali. From that will be born Cyclone Bansi.

Bansi is not going to be a super cyclone. Far from it. But it is going to generate winds of 120+ Kph. At least that is what we can say now. It is early days and it is difficult to say much of the intensity right now.

What we can say with certainty is that Bansi is going to bigger than Adjali, with a greater diameter. And it will have more staying power. It is going to travel hundreds of kilometers and brave the disrupting westerlies blowing below the African continent.

Bansi will intensify rapidly and be the strongest on November 26, 2014. It is going to move south for the next one week before dissipating owing to the strong westerlies. The GFS says it will pass by Mauritius and La Reunion a few hundred kilometers away on November 29, Saturday and move on southward. It will then intensify again then and move southwards before dissipating in the first week of December.

The European model says the storm will weaken but head towards Mauritius, reaching it by November 29, 2014.

What is notable of Bansi is that it is going to brave the powerful disrupting Westerlies, the dropping sea temperature as it moves south and carry on till early December, piercing through the Westerlies. A storm with stamina.

Latest Update: November 20, 2014

Major forecast models agree that Bansi is not going to hit Hit Mauritius or La Reunion but move pass them a few hundred kilometers away and go south. Latest forecasts also say Bansi is going to be a 100 Kph storm but will travel a long way. It will have a larger diameter than Adjali.

It will be strongest when it passes Mauritius on November 27. (75-90 Kph). The lowest central pressure of the cyclone will be 993. So not a very powerful storm. It will disintegrate on December 1-2, 2014 when the westerlies tear it apart.

TRACK OF UPCOMING CYCLONE "BANSI"

Bansi is going to be a large storm. This prediction map shows Bansi moving south on November 27

Cyclone ADJALI Has Formed As We Had Predicted

The track of cyclone Adjali according to the JTWC

Cyclone Adjali has been born as we had foretold a few days ago. It is going to intensify even more in the coming two days to 110 Kph winds, gusting up to 150 Kph. Nothing in the class of Nuri and Vongfong, but a nasty storm nevertheless.

The JTWC in its latest bulletin says it going to move south in the next two days and grow big.  But by Wednesday the southern latitude winds will start affecting it and the storm will start weakening. It will then start moving in a SW direction and dissipate as a cyclone by late Monday (November 21, 2014).

But the remnants of the system will drift to Mauritius and La Reunion islands and bring it some rains on November 23, 2014. There is little likelihood that Adjali will hit Mauritius as a full bodied cyclone. It is going to break up before that.

As for the track of the cyclone we support the path predicted by JTWC (See map above). The track according to Meteo France shows the cyclone curving more almost in a westerly direction. But we think the JTWC track will be proved right.

Just for the record, Cyclone Adjali is a Dvorak Intensity T-4.5 storm, that is a Category 1-2 hurricane.

What should worry the folks in Mauritius is that another cyclone will form soon after Adjali disintegrates. At least that is, as we earlier said, is what the European Forecast Model says. The new system is likely to form around November 23 many hundred Kms away from where Adjali was spawned.

We will keep a close watch. It is to be seen if other computer models support the birth of Cyclone Bansi.

UPDATE: November 18, 2014. No Bansi Soon

It is unlikely that Cyclone Bansi will form soon. The ECMWF Model hints at a low pressure system moving towards the African coast around November 26, 2014. But just that. A low. The GFS too says a low will move eastwards. But a big storm? No.

Update: November 19, 2014. Where will Adjali end?

Adjali will burn itself out and end up as a low pressure that will pass by north of Mauritius on November 23, 2014. It will bring some rains and 25-30 Kph winds to the island.

The track of cyclone Adjali according to Meteo France

Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone ADJALI To Form November 15, 2014 Near Diego Garcia

It is the southern hemisphere which is going to throw up storms now. The southern Indian ocean will start off with cyclone ADJALI. It will form near the Diego Garcia Islands and intensify and travel in a SSW direction. By the time it passes the Rodrigues island of Mauritius it will start weakening. But Mauritius will have winds and rains on November 22, 2014.

Adjali will be no Nuri. But it will be a significant tropical storm on November 17-18 throwing up winds of 100+ Kph. The cluster of islands near Madagascar (Including Mauritius) are lucky that the storm will weaken by the time it reaches them.

Most affected will be Rodrigues Islands. Adjali is going move past it on November 21, Gale and heavy rains are expected on that tourist destination. If you are thinking of a Mauritius vacation around November 21-23, my advice is, postpone it.

Latest updates indicate there are two "Invest" in the southern Indian ocean now. These are low pressure area which meteorologists watch closely and think may turn into a bigger storm.

94S:This is the one we feel will turn into cyclone Adjali.

95S: This has formed further SW near Mauritius.

We shall keenly watch developments and keep you in formed.

The two "Invests" in the southern Indian ocean today

Cyclone Adjali as seen on November 19-20

Invest 94S: Future storm ADJALI as seen on November 14, 2014