Australia Visited By Cyclone Lam, Marcia May Follow Soon

Even as cyclone Lam intensifies in the Arafura Sea near the coast of northern Australia chances are another tropical cyclone Marcia may affect the eastern coast, particularly Brisbane.

CYCLONE LAM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0630 HOURS GMT, FEBRUARY 17, 2015.

Cyclone Lam is already throwing out winds of 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure of 993 Mb. Quite a nasty little storm. Lam is going to toddle around in the Arafura Sea for a couple of days and then move into Arnhem Land on February 19, 2015. So very windy in Wessel islands and Arnhem Land for the next 48 hours. And lots of rains in these areas. Darwin will not be affected much. Some light showers and winds of 30 kph for the next three days beginning tomorrow.

Lam is going to weaken after making landfall. So when it reaches Katherine it will be just a low pressure area. Some rains but no deluge.

As for the other system, 98P, which is developing in the Pacific coast of Queensland, may turn out to be a weak tropical storm. One doubts if the Australian Met will even name it (Marcia). It will barely reach wind speeds of 65 kph, even that only on February 21 after it moves past Brisbane.

We feel 98P will remain a depression. It will bring rains and some winds to the eastern coast of Australia in the next 96 hours but it may not be honored with the name, Marcia.

Storm 90S May Spell Cyclone Trouble For Mascareignes

Update: February 21, 2015

The ECMWF has turned bearish on upcoming cyclone Glenda affecting Mascareignes. It believes Glenda will move southwards before entering the waters.

The GFS in contrast is still bullish. It believes 90S will move towards Rodrigues Island and then start intensifying rapidly. The Island is in for a thorough thrashing by Glenda on February 26, 2015. After which it will turn south thus sparing Mauritius.
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It is possible that cyclone Glenda has already been born. It is called 90S by NOAA and lay at 20.3°S 99.7°E at 0000 hours today south of Diego Garcia in the Southern Indian Ocean.

This storm, if forecasts are to be believed, will take a long time to form. It is only after 5-6 days that it will gain cyclone strength. Its movement will be confounding and haphazard. It will move east first then start curving and move towards Mascareignes.

Forecast models are divided. The GFS predicts future cyclone Glenda will move towards Mascareignes but then swerve south and miss even Rodrigues island. The ECMWF says no such luck. Glenda is going to slam into the aforementioned group of islands. Or move very close to them.

It is certain that 90S is going to turn into a very powerful storm called cyclone Glenda in the coming days.

THE MASSIVE SWIRLING MASS OF CLOUDS NORTH-EAST OF MASCAREIGNES IS STORM 90S, FUTURE CYCLONE GLENDA