Australia Visited By Cyclone Lam, Marcia May Follow Soon

Even as cyclone Lam intensifies in the Arafura Sea near the coast of northern Australia chances are another tropical cyclone Marcia may affect the eastern coast, particularly Brisbane.

CYCLONE LAM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0630 HOURS GMT, FEBRUARY 17, 2015.

Cyclone Lam is already throwing out winds of 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure of 993 Mb. Quite a nasty little storm. Lam is going to toddle around in the Arafura Sea for a couple of days and then move into Arnhem Land on February 19, 2015. So very windy in Wessel islands and Arnhem Land for the next 48 hours. And lots of rains in these areas. Darwin will not be affected much. Some light showers and winds of 30 kph for the next three days beginning tomorrow.

Lam is going to weaken after making landfall. So when it reaches Katherine it will be just a low pressure area. Some rains but no deluge.

As for the other system, 98P, which is developing in the Pacific coast of Queensland, may turn out to be a weak tropical storm. One doubts if the Australian Met will even name it (Marcia). It will barely reach wind speeds of 65 kph, even that only on February 21 after it moves past Brisbane.

We feel 98P will remain a depression. It will bring rains and some winds to the eastern coast of Australia in the next 96 hours but it may not be honored with the name, Marcia.

Tropical Cyclones 'Lam' And 'Linda' To Come Visiting Australia Together In Early January 2015?

Update: December 31, 2014

Come 2015 and Australia is likely to have unwelcome visitors. May be a tropical cyclone or two in early January.

The seas along the northern Australia coast are in ferment. Major reliable forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly hint at the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in Timor Sea, Arafura Sea or in both. The suspect area where a cyclone may develop is the coast along the towns of Berby and Broome in North-West Australia.

Most forecast models agree that a low pressure area and then a cyclone will develop in that area. The 'low' will develop on January 5-6, 2015, which will subsequently intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is disagreement on the likely path and intensity of the probable cyclone. 

One possibility is the storm develops near the coast of Broome-Derby on January 10 and moves inland right away. This will bring rainfall  to The Great Sandy Desert and Gibson Desert. This option envisages a weak storm but a great rain-maker.

The second scenario is a storm develops on January 8 and intensifies into something nasty (Minimum Central Pressure of 987 Mb) and moves along the coast of western Australia.

There are chances of another tropical cyclone developing in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria on January 6, 2015 and making landfall in the coast along the Gulf. This storm is likely to affect Wessel Islands, Groote Island, Sir Edward Pellew Group and Wellesley Islands (And of course the town of Karumba). All in Queensland. This storm may also cross over into the Coral Sea and intensify rapidly and threaten the eastern coast of Queensland.

The time period between January 5 to January 15, 2015 is pregnant with possibilities of cyclones developing that will affect Australia. Are tropical cyclones 'Lam' and 'Linda' visiting Australia together soon?

The bad news is that may be the drought of cyclones since 2011 when severe tropical cyclone Yasi hit Queensland is about to end in the coming days.

Cyclone 'Yasi' was the last cyclone to hit Australia in February 2011.