Cyclone Nathan To Make Landfall Into Arnhem Land In Coming Hours

See VIDEO: Nathan in Northern Territory. March 2015
See Tropical Cyclone Nathan LIVE

Update: March 23, 2015

CYCLONE NATHAN TO HIT ARNHEM LAND IN COMING HOURS: LITTLE EFFECT ON DARWIN

Tropical cyclone Nathan has traveled a long way in the recent past. It is now hovering in the Arafura Sea off the coast of Northern Territory, Australia.

Presently it packs quite a punch with winds of 85 kmph. But in the next 24 hours it is going to make landfall into Arnhem Land and weaken.

By the time it reaches Darwin it will have weakened considerably and only bring some showers to the city. But it will remain windy for the next couple of days.

The JTWC in contrast says the storm will be quite powerful when it moves past Darwin with winds of 65 kmph on March 25 (Darwin Time). But we beg to differ.

But it will strengthen a little to a depression again when it enters the Indian Ocean on March 26, 2015. It will not regain its cyclone strength.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT, MARCH 23, 2015, SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO ARNHEM LAND IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY

THE JTWC BELIEVES NATHAN WILL THROW UP WINDS OF 65 KMPH WHEN IT PASSES DARWIN. BUT THAT SEEMS IMPROBABLE.

==================================


Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to intensify and hit Cooktown on the Queensland coast of Australia on the night of March 19-20. The storm will then move across northern Queensland and enter the Gulf of Carpentaria. Nathan is going to travel a long way.

The cyclone is presently 400 kilometers east of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. A significant storm, it is spewing sustained winds of 85 kmph. Gusts up to 100 kmph.

It is moving west gradually. In the coming days it will intensify to peak wind speeds of 140 kmph. It will weaken a little at the time of landfall at Cooktown, Queensland on the night of March 19-20, 2015 (Thursday-Friday). Expected sustained winds at landfall are 125 kmph.

Nathan will then travel across northern Queensland  and enter sea again into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday morning (Australian Time). It will be quite a storm then with wind speeds of 85 kmph. It will intensify again to 100 kmph when it passes through Groote Eylandt in the Gulf.

Quite a storm!

On March 22 it will make landfall into Northern Territory. Into Arnhem Land. But it will have weakened considerably by them. Even then it might bring showers to Darwin on March 24, 2015.

Read More On Tropical Cyclone Nathan

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE NATHAN. BY THE TIME IT NEARS DARWIN IT WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE AREA

Tropical Cyclone NATHAN (95P) Latest Updates: WILL HIT QUEENSLAND COAST MARCH 19, 2015

See Tropical Cyclone NATHAN LIVE

Read Latest updates on cyclone Nathan

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0400 HRS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN IS 250 KILOMETRES NORTH OF WILLIS ISLAND NOW

It is 530 kilometres north-east of Cairns on the Australian coast of Queensland. Sustained winds of 110 kph.

In the next 48 hours the storm is going to make a U-turn and head back to the coast of Queensland. Opinions differ amongst various forecast model. The GFS predicts landfall on the evening of March 19, 2015 between Cairns and Townsville.

The European Model says it will hit Cooktown on March 20. It is likely that the Australian Willis Island, which has an monitoring station of the Australian Met, may be visited by the storm.

The Queensland coast is going to face a situation of cyclone Nathan making landfall with 140 kph winds on the morning of March 19, 2015.(Thursday).

The entire stretch of the coast from Cooktown to Mackay is in for torrential rains and strong winds on Thursday

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0930 HRS GMT

NATHAN WILL COME BACK AND HIT QUEENSLAND AGAIN ON MARCH 19, 2015

Tropical cyclones are by nature very unpredictable. Cyclone Nathan proves the adage again. Earlier forecasts said the storm would intensify and move over to New Caledonia or Vanuatu.

But no! It has changes its mind again. Latest predictions are the presently weak Nathan will start intensifying rapidly again, turn a circle in the Coral Sea and come back and hit the coast of Queensland hard on March 19, 2015, north of Townsville with winds of 150+ kph.

But considering the moody nature of Nathan we have to wait a couple of days and see what he does next.

LATEST FORECASTS SAY CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HIT QUEENSLAND ON MARCH 19, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0630 HRS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE QUEENSLAND COAST

The storm has winds of 90 kph. In the coming days it is going to further intensify. Forecasts say it is headed to southern Vanuatu. It will reach them on March 18, 2015. And worse still it is going to potter around for the next five days. A ghastly scenario. A significant cyclone hangs around in the same place for five days. And that too the area super cyclone Pam will batter in the coming 24 hours.

Bad times indeed for southern Vanuatu

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015, 0630 GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HOVER NEAR COAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

It is presently 360 kilometers north of Cairns. 200 kilometers north of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. It will stay nearly stationary for another 24 hours. After that it will intensify and fall back and move away from the Queensland coast.

Even now it has sustained winds of 80+ kph. And it is raining in the entire Cape York Peninsula with heavier showers on the coastal areas.

---------------------------------------------------
UPDATE: MARCH 11, 1230 HOURS GMT 

NATHAN HAS INTENSIFIED TO A 90 KPH STORM

Cyclone Nathan is about 200 kilometers north-north-east of Cooktown, Queensland. And about 350 kilometers north (approx.) of Cairns. Sustained wind speeds are 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. Winds of 55 kph are already lashing Cooktown. They are slightly less at Cairns. About 40 kph.

In the next 12 hours Nathan will creep closer to Cooktown. The 'eye' of the storm will lie practically over the town. After that it will slowly inch away into the Coral Sea on March 13.

The prospect of Nathan with its 100 kph winds hanging around close to the Cooktown coast for about 36-48 hours will not be pleasant.
--------------------------------------------------
UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HOURS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN MAY HIT NEW CALEDONIA ON MARCH 19, 2015

It is generally agreed that tropical cyclone Nathan will not make landfall into Queensland but swing back into the Coral Sea on March 13, 2015. What is not widely known is that after that the cyclone may hit New Caledonia Island on March 19, 2015 as a significant storm. Possibly a category 3 cyclone.
------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 0330 HOURS GMT

BAD NEWS FOR QUEENSLAND: NATHAN IS GOING TO STAY NEAR STATIONARY NEAR COAST FOR 48 HOURS, MARCH 11-13, 2015

A tropical cyclone passing over any region is bad enough. But if it just hovers almost motionless for 48 hours, that is reason for big concern. Cyclone Nathan is going to do just that near the Queensland coast at Cooktown. It will just stand there touching the coast from March 11-13. After that it will fall back into the Coral Sea. It will not make landfall into Queensland.

Right now it is slowly moving towards the Australian coast. It is about 210 kilometers north-east of Cooktown, 340 kilometers north-north-east of Cairns. It is already throwing winds of 85 kph gusts up to 110 kph. Cooktown and Cairns are facing winds of about 50 kph right now. And heavy rains have already started in these two towns. And they will continue for another two days.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN

CYCLONE NATHAN AT 0600 HRS GMT, MARCH 11, 2015

PDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0613 hours GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL FORM TODAY OFF QUEENSLAND

The South-West Pacific has got busy. After spawning super cyclone Pam, the Coral Sea will give birth to cyclone Nathan after nine hours today.

Future cyclone Nathan is a depression now termed 95P by NOAA. It is hovering around near the coast of Queensland, Australia.

By 1500 GMT today it will have intensified into a cyclone. By late evening on Thursday it will have intensified into a Category 3 storm and reached the Queensland coast at Cooktown in southern Cape York Peninsula.

But it will not make landfall. Instead it will swing back into the Coral Sea.

As to its future after that, the American GFS Forecast System predicts it will go on to hit the southern islands of Vanuatu on March 16, 2015. One must keep in mind that Vanuatu is expecting a near direct hit from the massive tropical cyclone Pam in the coming two days.

THIS IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA

Vanuatu In For Double Whammy: Cyclone Pam Then Nathan

Vanuatu, at least some of the southern islands, are in for big trouble. It is going to be hit by two cyclones in a span of four days. Cyclone Nathan will soon follow the bigger cyclone Pam.

Even as tropical cyclone Pam is brewing in the south Pacific east of Solomon Islands, another storm Nathan is about to be born near the coast of Queensland, Australia in the Coral Sea.

And both these storms are going to bring big trouble to some islands of Vanuatu, especially Erromango and Tanna. pam is going to come first on March 12. Cyclone Nathan will arrive howling four days later, on March 16, 2015.

Talking of tropical cyclone Pam: it is likely that it is going to move through Vanuatu. Fiji seems to be safe. Pam is going to hit Vanuatu islands on March 11 and move through them in the next 48 hours after that.

Cyclone Nathan is going to form tomorrow near the southern most tip of Papua New Guinea and move towards the Queensland coast. But it will not make landfall but instead swing back into the Coral Sea and move towards New Caledonia. It is expected to move between New Caledonia and Vanuatu on the 16th of March, 2015. The islands of Lifou and Mare will suffer direct hits.

The ECMWF Model has something different in store for tropical cyclone Nathan. It believes the storm will not swing back into the Coral Sea but continue hugging the coast of Queensland. If this comes true, coastal Queensland is for some real rough weather in the coming days.

Though Nathan will be smaller than cyclone Pam it will still be a significant tropical cyclone with a minimum pressure of 981 Mb.

Vanuatu islands are a paradise for tourists. They are strongly advised to avoid the the islands for a week.

Queensland, Australia May Be Visited By Tropical Cyclone Nathan

Cyclone Nathan will form in the next 48 hours. That is on March 10, 2015, a few hundred kilometers off the eastern coast of Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland, Australia in the Coral Sea.

Soon it will intensify and move close to the coast of Queensland. It will not make landfall but hover around the coast near Cooktown, gradually move south along the coast and then move away from land back into the Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to be a nasty little storm. Quite small compared to the gargantuan Pam expected further east in the Pacific Ocean but it may whip up winds in excess of  100 kph on coastal Queensland till March 14, 2015 after which it will swing back into the sea.

Only the eastern coastal stretch of Queensland near Cooktown will be affected. Cairns may experience some gusts and some rain but not much. Cape York Peninsula is in for some heavy rainfall in the coming days.

But after seeing cyclone Marcia suddenly unexpectedly intensifying into a category 5 hurricane for a while a few days ago, one can only keep our fingers crossed. One hopes Nathan will not turn out to be as freakish as Marcia.

Cyclone Nathan is going to give the Queensland authorities sleepless night as it is going to intensify and come towards the coast of Cooktown. But fortunately it will swing away back into the sea on March 12, 2015 without making landfall.

Nathan is going to be a significant tropical cyclone with a central minimum pressure of 979 Mb.

Tropical Cyclones 'Lam' And 'Linda' To Come Visiting Australia Together In Early January 2015?

Update: December 31, 2014

Come 2015 and Australia is likely to have unwelcome visitors. May be a tropical cyclone or two in early January.

The seas along the northern Australia coast are in ferment. Major reliable forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly hint at the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in Timor Sea, Arafura Sea or in both. The suspect area where a cyclone may develop is the coast along the towns of Berby and Broome in North-West Australia.

Most forecast models agree that a low pressure area and then a cyclone will develop in that area. The 'low' will develop on January 5-6, 2015, which will subsequently intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is disagreement on the likely path and intensity of the probable cyclone. 

One possibility is the storm develops near the coast of Broome-Derby on January 10 and moves inland right away. This will bring rainfall  to The Great Sandy Desert and Gibson Desert. This option envisages a weak storm but a great rain-maker.

The second scenario is a storm develops on January 8 and intensifies into something nasty (Minimum Central Pressure of 987 Mb) and moves along the coast of western Australia.

There are chances of another tropical cyclone developing in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria on January 6, 2015 and making landfall in the coast along the Gulf. This storm is likely to affect Wessel Islands, Groote Island, Sir Edward Pellew Group and Wellesley Islands (And of course the town of Karumba). All in Queensland. This storm may also cross over into the Coral Sea and intensify rapidly and threaten the eastern coast of Queensland.

The time period between January 5 to January 15, 2015 is pregnant with possibilities of cyclones developing that will affect Australia. Are tropical cyclones 'Lam' and 'Linda' visiting Australia together soon?

The bad news is that may be the drought of cyclones since 2011 when severe tropical cyclone Yasi hit Queensland is about to end in the coming days.

Cyclone 'Yasi' was the last cyclone to hit Australia in February 2011.