Australia Visited By Cyclone Lam, Marcia May Follow Soon

Even as cyclone Lam intensifies in the Arafura Sea near the coast of northern Australia chances are another tropical cyclone Marcia may affect the eastern coast, particularly Brisbane.

CYCLONE LAM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0630 HOURS GMT, FEBRUARY 17, 2015.

Cyclone Lam is already throwing out winds of 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure of 993 Mb. Quite a nasty little storm. Lam is going to toddle around in the Arafura Sea for a couple of days and then move into Arnhem Land on February 19, 2015. So very windy in Wessel islands and Arnhem Land for the next 48 hours. And lots of rains in these areas. Darwin will not be affected much. Some light showers and winds of 30 kph for the next three days beginning tomorrow.

Lam is going to weaken after making landfall. So when it reaches Katherine it will be just a low pressure area. Some rains but no deluge.

As for the other system, 98P, which is developing in the Pacific coast of Queensland, may turn out to be a weak tropical storm. One doubts if the Australian Met will even name it (Marcia). It will barely reach wind speeds of 65 kph, even that only on February 21 after it moves past Brisbane.

We feel 98P will remain a depression. It will bring rains and some winds to the eastern coast of Australia in the next 96 hours but it may not be honored with the name, Marcia.

Cyclone Lam May Affect Australia's Northern Territory

The Arafura Sea off the coast of northern Australia may spawn cyclone Lam in a day or two. 

The tropical storm is likely to be born in the Arafura Sea a few hundred kilometers north-east  of Wessel Islands in northern Australia. Lam is likely to form on February 17 2015 and intensify rapidly and hit the coast at Wessel Islands and Arnhem Land in Northern Territory a few hundred kilometers east of Darwin.

Lam is going to be small but nasty gusty cyclone which will bring heavy rains in the areas described above. It will make landfall on February 18 at Wessel Islands.

Darwin will not be affected.

There is a strong possibility of a much bigger tropical cyclone hitting north-west Australia around February 23, 2015. This one will form near the coast of Collier Bay and Kimberley Plateau. Though this storm will not affect Darwin the north-western coast of the country will be severely affected.

Tropical Cyclones 'Lam' And 'Linda' To Come Visiting Australia Together In Early January 2015?

Update: December 31, 2014

Come 2015 and Australia is likely to have unwelcome visitors. May be a tropical cyclone or two in early January.

The seas along the northern Australia coast are in ferment. Major reliable forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly hint at the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in Timor Sea, Arafura Sea or in both. The suspect area where a cyclone may develop is the coast along the towns of Berby and Broome in North-West Australia.

Most forecast models agree that a low pressure area and then a cyclone will develop in that area. The 'low' will develop on January 5-6, 2015, which will subsequently intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is disagreement on the likely path and intensity of the probable cyclone. 

One possibility is the storm develops near the coast of Broome-Derby on January 10 and moves inland right away. This will bring rainfall  to The Great Sandy Desert and Gibson Desert. This option envisages a weak storm but a great rain-maker.

The second scenario is a storm develops on January 8 and intensifies into something nasty (Minimum Central Pressure of 987 Mb) and moves along the coast of western Australia.

There are chances of another tropical cyclone developing in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria on January 6, 2015 and making landfall in the coast along the Gulf. This storm is likely to affect Wessel Islands, Groote Island, Sir Edward Pellew Group and Wellesley Islands (And of course the town of Karumba). All in Queensland. This storm may also cross over into the Coral Sea and intensify rapidly and threaten the eastern coast of Queensland.

The time period between January 5 to January 15, 2015 is pregnant with possibilities of cyclones developing that will affect Australia. Are tropical cyclones 'Lam' and 'Linda' visiting Australia together soon?

The bad news is that may be the drought of cyclones since 2011 when severe tropical cyclone Yasi hit Queensland is about to end in the coming days.

Cyclone 'Yasi' was the last cyclone to hit Australia in February 2011.

December 30, 2014: Today's Forecasts In A Nut-Shell

LATEST XWF-WEATHER FORECASTS: A SUMMARY

Depression 95B has proved to have more stamina than expected. It is braving the cold waters as it ascends the latitudes in the Bay of Bengal. Likely to dissipate by January 2, 2015. Rains expected in east coast of India and Bangladesh.

Jangmi will not intensify much but will reach Thailand as a rain-maker. 

Kate goes strong as a category 3 hurricane tearing down the S Indian Ocean. Will start weakening soon.

North West Australia faces Cyclone Lam on January 6, 2015. Even Perth will be affected.

The Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, Reunion) will have a depression first (Or a cyclone) than may be a big cyclone on January 15-16, 2015.

Post Kate, South Indian Ocean May Spawn Two (Three?) Cyclones: North West Australia To Face "Lam".

Update: December 29, 2014

The South Indian Ocean is gonna give birth to two more tropical cyclones, Bansi and Lam in the coming days, post-Kate. Australia may face its first cyclone this season. There is also some indication that another cyclone might come visiting to the Mascareignes in mid-January.

The ocean is most vigorous right now. The mighty Pacific could only throw up a weak Jangmi, in contrast the Indian Ocean is throwing out fistful of storms. Even the northern Indian Ocean gave rise to a depression 95B in mid winter. The Southern part has a energetic Cyclone Kate moving down south whipping up sustained winds of 125 kph.

The ocean has more in store for us. Two more cyclones in the coming week. Bansi and Lam. Targets? Madagascar and North-West Australia.

Cyclone Bansi will come first. It will be born as a low pressure in the Mozambique Channel, the strip of Indian Ocean between the African mainland and the island of Madagascar. It will born in the next 24 hours. It will remian an innocuous low pressure for some time  like any of the numerous "L" that bob around the ocean. But come January 4, 2015 and it will start intensifying. It will then move round southern Madagascar (An intelligent storm???) and enter South West Indian Ocean proper. And intensify into Tropical Cyclone Bansi by January 8. Bansi will be a storm with a central pressure of 994 Mb, something like Kate. It is not expected to move north towards Reunion or Mauritius but move south into the powerful westerlies.

Cyclone Lam  This will be born off the coast of North-West Australia (Near Broome) on January 4, 2015. It will then toddle around in that part of south east Indian ocean, intensifying all the while. Lam is gonna be bigger than Bansi. Central Pressure of 989 Mb. This storm is going to make landfall near the Australian town of Exmouth and Barrow Island on January 10, 2014.

It is still early days. So one can hardly be certain of the intensity and path the upcoming cyclone is gonna take.

Parting Tidbit

Around January 14, 2015, Mauritius and La Reunion may have a tropical cyclone as an unwanted guest. If early model forecasts available with XWF-WEATHER are to be believed this is going to be a nasty storm which will come over from northern Madagascar. May be 'Chedza' will follow 'Bansi' soon this January.