Personal Account Of Super Cyclone Pam, 2015

Vanuatu Oxfam country director Collett van Rooyen wrote about the experience for the charity, describing the moment the cyclone hit.

 "We knew (almost) exactly where she was and what her most likely next move would be and we knew that she would only reveal to us her secrets as she arrived over us," she wrote.

 "...Regular radio announcements in calm tones; traditional Vanuatu string-band music in between statements of how harsh things may be when she gets to us. 

"All a bit surreal really. The cyclone shutters boarding up our windows and doors start to shudder, at first gently and irregularly and then faster and constant. Pam is now moving in, getting closer to us at a rate of 10, 15, 20 kilometers per hour.

 " Her eye moves at an astounding speed, creating wind forces of unimaginable speeds. "Can you imagine 'over 200km an hour'? I couldn't at the time. But I could hear it. I now know the sound of 200km per hour or more, and I don't think I would willingly subject myself to it again. Pam arrived announced by the drum roll of our shutters. Then she roared, she squealed, she hissed. She spat and cursed in deep bass tones, and at the same time she whistled and screeched in ways that messed with our senses. What was that we just heard? 

"Someone outside screaming? The high-pitched string band notes we had heard earlier on the radio? No, the radio was off and people had taken shelter. It was Pam in her many voices. She spoke a language of essential fear at its most primitive and we understood it instantly."

VIDEO: Aftermath of cyclone Pam at Port-Vila, Vanuatu

Text and Video Source: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/cyclone-pam-roared-squealed-hissed-as-it-hit-20150315-144f01.html

SUPER CYCLONE PAM (17P) 2015: Latest Updates: PASSING NEW ZEALAND NOW

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0330 HRS GMT

EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING EAST CAPE NOW

The storm is 110 kilometres north-east of Gisborne and just 50 kilometres from the coast of New Zealand. Sustained winds of 80+ kph are lashing Gisborne now. Gusts are 110 kph. The sea is very rough. Wave height is 7-8 metres in the coast of east Cape.

The southern coast of South Island is peaceful now. But that will change as Pam moves south. The entire southern coast of the country from Christchurch to Gisborne will face winds of 50 kph for another 48 hours. Seas will remain rough tilll March 18, 2015 afternoon (NZ Time). Expect 6 metres waves for another 48 hours.

The incessant showers will start ceasing after 24 hours.

But the New Zealand island of Chathams which is 680 kms from South Island is in for rough wet weather for another 60 hours. The present 60 kph winds will rise to 80-90 kph before tapering off on March 20, 2015.

UPDATE: MARCH 15, 2015. 0300 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS 500 KILOMETRES FROM NEW ZEALAND COAST

The storm is now about 500 kilometres north of Paihia, North Island. Sustained winds of 125 kph. Winds of 60 kph are already hitting the northern parts of North Island.

 In the coming hours Pam will pass close by Gisborne area which will experience heavy rains and 80+ kph winds. Showers are expected all over New Zealand, especially on North Island. Heaviest in East Cape.

The effects of Pam will wear off on March 17, 2015 as the storm will move away from the country to the south.

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0830 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING BY NEW CALEDONIA

The storm has departed the shores of Vanuatu. Heavens alone knows what destruction it has left in its wake.

Presently the storm is passing 340 kilometers east of Noumea, New Caledonia and heading rapidly south clocking 20 kph. Even now it is still one hell of a storm. Sustained winds of 160 kph, gusts up to 190 kph.

NEW ZEALAND IN TROUBLE AS PAM WILL COME QUITE CLOSE ON MARCH 17, 2015

There is bad news for New Zealand. Earlier predictions said cyclone Pam would not pass by the country close. But latest forecasts say otherwise. Pam is going to pass less than 100 kilometers away from the East Cape. Just 160 kilometers from Gisborne.

And even on March 17 Pam will have sustained winds of 120 kph. The eastern coast of North Island will start to face winds of 60 kph (Including Auckland) from March 15, 2015. The coastal areas, including Whakatane and Tauranga will have 80 kph winds. Incessant moderate to heavy rains expected in the entire North Island from March 15-17.

CYCLONE PAM VISITING NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 15, 2015

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT, MARCH 14

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 1130 HRS GMT

PORT-VILA BEING BATTERED: ERROMANGO, TANNA, AMATOM NEXT

Super cyclone Pam is passing less than 100 kilometers east of Port-Vila as we write. Our conservative sustained wind speeds estimate is 180 kph, gusts up to 220 kph. The JTWC says 260 kph, gusts up to 320 kph.

A horrendous phenomenon. Hell on Earth. Nature gone crazy.

In the coming hours the southern most Vanuatu Islands will face Pam's frenzy. The nightmare that Vanuatu is experiencing will start abating from 0600 hours, March 14, 2015 as Pam will move south away from the waters of Vanuatu.

One shudders what destruction is being wreaked in the country now.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC IS SUED AT 0900 HRS, MARCH 13, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0230 HRS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM IS NOW 200 KILOMETERS NW OF PORT-VILA

The islands of Ambrym and Epi are getting the maximum hammering. Port-Vila is next. The storm is entering it as we speak. For the next six hours it will face winds of 200 kph.

But the worst is in store for the three southern most islands of Vanuatu: Erromango, Tanna and Anatom (Aneitym). Possibly the eye of the storm will pass right through these places. The cyclone will move away from Anatom only at 0300 hours GMT, March 14.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 1130 GMT

AFTER 12 HOURS SUPER CYCLONE PAM WILL ENTER VANUATU. PORT-VILA TO BE HIT AT 0300 GMT, MARCH 13

Many forecasters are saying that super cyclone Pam is going to move east of Vanuatu, hence there is less danger.

This is a dangerous misconception.

Firstly because Pam is huge monster. 600 kilometers core diameter. So even if the eye of the storm passes by a 100-200 kilometers away the winds will be devastating

Secondly, The US navy's JTWC says the storm will pass east (by a couple hundred kilometers) of Vanuatu. The GFS predicts a closer path. Both the European Model and GFS foretell a near direct hit on Port-Vila, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Massive destruction can be expected on these islands.

Thirdly, cyclones by nature are fickle and very unpredictable. Just a month ago everybody was expecting cyclone Marcia off the Queensland coast to be a category 2-3 storm. Instead it turned into a Cat 5 cyclone for a while.

Analyzing the different forecast models, one can safely say that Fiji is totally safe. Vanuatu is in for real trouble. Even parts of New Caledonia will get a thorough lashing.

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS SUPER CYCLONE PAM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS INCLUDING CAPITAL PORT-VILA ON MARCH 13, 2015

NEW ZEALAND NOT TOTALLY SAFE FROM PAM

Some forecasters are already saying New Zealand will not be affected much by Pam (It will be an extra-tropical cyclone then).

But one has to be wary before being so optimistic. GFS predicts a lashing on the east coast of North Island. The European Model forecasts Pam will move even closer to New Zealand on March 16, 2015

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM MOVING VERY CLOSE BY NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 16, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 0500 HOURS GMT

WORST HIT WILL BE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS

Tropical cyclone Pam is about 1025 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. 290 kilometers northeast of Vanuatu's Maewo Island. Sustained wind speeds are 140 kph, gusts up to 180 kph.

Even at this distance the northern islands of the country are witnessing winds of over 60 kph.

In the next 24 hours the storm will move past Penama Province and start affecting the islands of Shefa Province ( Ambrym, Epi and Elate islands).

By night of March 13 (Local Time) Pam will move closest to southern Vanuatu. The province of Tafea will be worst hit. That includes the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. These three islands will face the brunt of the super cyclone's fury. Sustained winds of 200 kph. And our estimates are very conservative. The JTWC predicts much stronger winds.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 1200 HOURS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM NEARING VANUATU

The cyclone is about 425 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo Island, Vanuatu. And 1175 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Wind speeds are 150 kph, gusts up to 180 kilometers. Central Minimum Pressure is 972 Mb. A clear sign that the storm is intensifying.

50+ kph winds are already lashing the islands of Vanuatu. And rainfall has already started in Vanuatu and Fiji. Pam is a very large diameter cyclone. The frightening part is the 'eye' of the storm is going to pass just about 100 kilometers from the islands of Vanuatu. This part of the cyclone will have the worst winds. The so-called 'eye-wall'.

LATEST CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY THE JTWC. ISSUED AT 0900 HOURS, MARCH 11, 2015

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HRS GMT

NEW ZEALAND'S NORTH ISLAND MAY RECEIVE SOME LASHING FROM PASSING SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 16, 2015

Though cyclone Pam is not going to hit New Zealand directly, it may have some effect as it passes by the country on March 16, 2015. The eastern coast of North island will see rough seas and winds in excess of 100 kph. Not to mention the rains. especially affected will be Gisborne and perhaps Rotorua.

FIJI SAFE FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM

It is clear (All forecast models agree) that super cyclone Pam is going to move right through the islands of Vanuatu. This means Fiji will hardly feel any effect of this storm except incessant light showers and winds of about 50 kph as Pam blasts through Vanuatu. Fiji is safe from cyclone Pam.

PARTS OF NEW CALEDONIA MAY GET SOME TAIL LASHING FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 14

Even as cyclone Pam moves south into the Pacific it's outer periphery may give some parts of New Caledonia a lashing on March 14, 2015. Especially Noumea on the southern tip, islands of Ouvea, Lifou, Pins, Tiga and Mare. Winds of about 100 kph and heavy rains.
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UPDATE:MARCH 11, 2015, 0235 GMT

BAD NEWS FOR VANUATU: CYCLONE PAM WILL HAVE WINDS OF 260+ KPH TOMORROW NIGHT

The JTWC has confirmed that super cyclone Pam is going to move very close by the islands of Vanuatu. A near direct hit. Worse still it predicts in its 2100 Hours GMT, March 10 bulletin that on March 12 night Pam will turn into something awful with sustained winds of 260 kph gusting up to a staggering 320 kph. At this time it will be passing the northern islands of Vanuatu. It brings back memories of the devastating cyclone of 1999 that hit the Indian coast of Odisha with winds of nearly 400 kph. 15000 people had died.

The southern islands of Vanuatu will suffer near direct hits on March 13, 2015. That includes the capital Port-Vila. Erromango, Tanna and Anatom will suffer the most

Cyclone Pam is presently 440 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. 1200 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Sustained winds of 150 kph, gusts of 180 kph.

JTWC CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS, MARCH 11, 2015. MORE BAD NEWS. PAM IS GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 260+ KPH, GUSTS 0F 340+ KPH. AND IT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO VANUATU

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UPDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0343 GMT

Bad news for Vanuatu. Super cyclone Pam may move right through the country with devastating winds. The JTWC estimates that on March Pam will reach wind speeds of 240 kph, gusting up to 280 kph. The worst affected islands will be Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Very strong winds exceeding 200+ kph (Gusts will be even more) will hit these islands.

The latest track forecast for the cyclone by JTWC shows the path westwards. The GFS predicts a path even closer to the islands of Vanuatu.

The storm will hit Maewo on March 12 at about 1200 hours GMT and then move south through other islands of Vanuatu in the following 36 hours.

Cyclone Pam is presently about 600 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. Sustained wind speed is 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.

UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Future super cyclone (Category 5) Pam has already been born. It is already throwing out winds of 80 kph. It is about 1400 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji.

In the coming days it is expected to move south. As to its predicted path there seems to some disagreement between the GFS Model and the JTWC. The JTWC says Pam will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji. The GFS foretells a path closer to Vanuatu. Hence if one goes by the GFS forecast, Vanuatu is going to take a bigger hit.

Even if the cyclone moves between Vanuatu and Fiji, this being a very large, powerful cyclone, the impact on these countries will be considerable.

The closer Cyclone Pam moves to either Vanuatu or Fiji, the more damage it will cause there. Cyclone Pam is going to cause a lot of damage. The question is how much.

We shall continue keeping a close watch on the emerging cyclone and note any change in its path.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS): SOURCE- JTWC: ISSUED MARCH 9, 2015, 0900 HOURS GMT

Vanuatu In For Double Whammy: Cyclone Pam Then Nathan

Vanuatu, at least some of the southern islands, are in for big trouble. It is going to be hit by two cyclones in a span of four days. Cyclone Nathan will soon follow the bigger cyclone Pam.

Even as tropical cyclone Pam is brewing in the south Pacific east of Solomon Islands, another storm Nathan is about to be born near the coast of Queensland, Australia in the Coral Sea.

And both these storms are going to bring big trouble to some islands of Vanuatu, especially Erromango and Tanna. pam is going to come first on March 12. Cyclone Nathan will arrive howling four days later, on March 16, 2015.

Talking of tropical cyclone Pam: it is likely that it is going to move through Vanuatu. Fiji seems to be safe. Pam is going to hit Vanuatu islands on March 11 and move through them in the next 48 hours after that.

Cyclone Nathan is going to form tomorrow near the southern most tip of Papua New Guinea and move towards the Queensland coast. But it will not make landfall but instead swing back into the Coral Sea and move towards New Caledonia. It is expected to move between New Caledonia and Vanuatu on the 16th of March, 2015. The islands of Lifou and Mare will suffer direct hits.

The ECMWF Model has something different in store for tropical cyclone Nathan. It believes the storm will not swing back into the Coral Sea but continue hugging the coast of Queensland. If this comes true, coastal Queensland is for some real rough weather in the coming days.

Though Nathan will be smaller than cyclone Pam it will still be a significant tropical cyclone with a minimum pressure of 981 Mb.

Vanuatu islands are a paradise for tourists. They are strongly advised to avoid the the islands for a week.

Vanuatu And Fiji Stare At Possible Category 5 Cyclone Pam

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

 Latest forecasts indicate that expected tropical cyclone Pam is going to move slightly eastwards from its earlier predicted path. Instead of hitting Vanuatu directly it will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands. Though present forecasts rule out a direct impact on Fiji, it is going to move past it too close for comfort on March 13, 2015.

There are five more days to go and Pam might change its path again. If that happens it is going to be real bad news for Fiji. I am sure the alarm bells must be ringing loud on that island.

Because we are staring at a monster in the making.

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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

 93P is an innocuous little low pressure area in the South Pacific presently. But in a few days it is going to turn into a massive destructive possible category 5 Hurricane PAM which is going to devastate Vanuatu.

The system lies east of the Solomon Islands and just north of the Santa Cruz islands. Location 7.8 degrees South, 169.9 degrees East. Wind speed is 25 kph. By tomorrow it is going to intensify into Tropical Cyclone Pam as it slowly moves in a south-south-west direction and hit Vanuatu on March 11, 2015.

The bad news for Vanuatu is that even as it passes through the islands Pam will be intensifying all the while. And we are looking at a massive cyclone of an expected central minimum pressure of 933 Mb. Huge. Powerful. And destructive. Vanuatu is in for winds of 225 kph (may be more) gusting up to 250 kph.

Tropical cyclone Pam is going to take about 48 hours to cross the Vanuatu Islands. So a large scale destruction is not ruled out. Port-Vila is going to be badly hit.

The only possible good news is that the European Forecast Model presages the storm will not hit Vanuatu directly but pass by it very close. In contrast the reliable GFS model predicts a direct hit.

All the models say Pam is going to be a God-awful storm. One certainly hopes the authorities will take early note of the impending threat and take all possible precautions.

A word of advice to tourists who have travel plans for Vanuatu in the coming week. Cancel them earliest possible.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: MARCH 11, 2015. CYCLONE PAM ABOUT TO HIT VANUATU

Tropical Cyclone Threat In South Pacific: Solomon, Vanuatu And New Caledonia Targets

January 6, 2015

Just as a storm is brewing near the  northern Australian coast, a tropical cyclone is about to be born near the Solomon Islands in South Pacific. It will remain a tropical depression as it crosses the islands but will intensify into a cyclone on January 11, 2015. It will then move south in the Pacific ocean and affect Vanuatu and New Caledonia Islands on January 13.

Another Tropical Depression is likely to move into the Philippines on January 15, 2015. Bad news to a country already reeling from floods from storm Jangmi.

Cyclone CEMPAKA To Form Off Indonesia.Cyclone NUTE Forming In South Pacific. Depression Heading To Indian East Coast.

Update: December 23, 2014

The oceans are getting restive again, eager to restore the balance (That is why storms form; to restore atmospheric balance). Tropical Cyclone Cempaka is likely to form on December 26, 2014. The South Pacific will throw up a storm. Cyclone Nute is forming right now, north of Vanuatu Island. And a depression will form near the Indian Andaman Islands and move to the Indian east coast.

Let us start with Cyclone Nute. The storm is a low pressure now and lay at 14.1 Degrees South and 159.9 Degrees West with winds of 35 kph. It presently lies about 1000 kms east of American Samoa Island. It is already intensifying and is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours and move in a SW direction. The only inhabited islands to be affected are French Polynesia and Cook Island.

By the way, the same area in the South Pacific is going to spew another storm (Cyclone Odile) in another 2-3 days. This storm will hit the American Samoa Islands.

Now for cyclone Cempaka. It will be born south of the area where the short-lived Bakung was born; Off the coast of Java. It lies as an "invest" (An area of disturbances where a meteorologist thinks a storm will develop) at 9.7 degrees South, and 100.4 degrees East. Come December 26, 2014 and it may develop into cyclone Cempaka. Now this storm is going to go straight into the Indian Ocean. No inhabited islands are around so only the sipping lanes will be affected. The storm will dissipate on December 29.

Deep Depression In Bay Of Bengal

And now the rain-maker depression which is going to drench the Indian east coast. The storm will form near the Central Andaman Islands and head west on December 24, 2014, that is tomorrow. It will reach Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu on December 28, 2014. When it nears the land masses it will swerve away and move along the Indian coast in the Bay of Bengal in the next 2-3 days. So rains are expected along the entire Indian east coast. That includes the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal. It is going to bring rains even to Bangladesh. So expect rains in all these areas by the end of the month (And year). Only the coastal areas will receive the rains.

There is a possibility that this depression might reach cyclone status when it coasts pass Tamil Nadu.

Another Typhoon In Philippines?

There is good chance that another typhoon is heading Philippines' way. A storm is brewing in the Pacific, a few hundred kilometres east of Philippines now. It will move west and is likely to make landfall in southern part of the country on December 27' 2014. We feel it might not reach tropical cyclone strength and will remain a deep depression. Lots of rains and very windy in Mindanao on December 27-28. Or will turn into typhoon Jangmi?