Tropical Cyclone Threat In South Pacific: Solomon, Vanuatu And New Caledonia Targets

January 6, 2015

Just as a storm is brewing near the  northern Australian coast, a tropical cyclone is about to be born near the Solomon Islands in South Pacific. It will remain a tropical depression as it crosses the islands but will intensify into a cyclone on January 11, 2015. It will then move south in the Pacific ocean and affect Vanuatu and New Caledonia Islands on January 13.

Another Tropical Depression is likely to move into the Philippines on January 15, 2015. Bad news to a country already reeling from floods from storm Jangmi.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY: January 3, 2015: Cyclone Lam And Linda Imminent In Australia Around January 10, 2015

Update: January 3, 2015

Upcoming Cyclone Lam And Linda

Within 24 hours future tropical cyclone Lam will be born as a low pressure area in the Timor Sea in South-Eastern Indian Ocean. The storm will struggle to intensify into something bigger because of the unfavourable wind shear. But around January 10 it will manage to turn into a cyclone. Lam. It is expected to make landfall between Broome and Onslow in Western Australia and move right through the territory. On January 13 it will exit from the Australian land mass at Great Victorian Desert and Nullarbor Plains. The entire province of Western Australian will receive rains.

Another cyclone is expected to form almost simultaneously in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. So it hard to say which of the storms will be Lam and Linda. The one in Western Australia or the one in Queensland? Now this storm will make landfall at Karumba in Queensland. It will then  move across the province and move into Pacific Ocean on January 12 between Mackay and Rockhampton. It will then move close along the coast for a day and swing away towards New Zealand. Brisbane will get a lashing from the storm on January 13. New Zealand may face a cyclone on January 14, 2015.

It is also possible that a storm may come from Papua New Guinea and hit the Queensland coast on January 10 near Townsville.

There are many complex factors at play so being 100% certain is difficult but it is certain that a cyclone is coming Australia's way soon. When? Where? We have outlined the possibilities.

See a tropical storm developing near Australia. LIVE.

South Western Indian Ocean

Presently a depression is moving around in circles in the Mozambique Channel. It will continue doing so for a few days more without strengthening into a storm. The conditions are not favouring it. Strong wind shear is preventing it to move away from its present area. So it is zigzagging around bringing lots of rains in coastal Mozambique and Madagascar.

Come January 14, 2015 and the South Western Indian Ocean may throw up two cyclones. One in the Mozambique Channel and one near Mascarene Islands. The former will make landfall into Mozambique around January 17-18. At the same time the second storm will move through Rodrigues Island and then move further south. So Rodrigues Island is in for a direct hit. Mauritius and La Reunion will feel the periphery of the cyclone.

Seems like Cyclones Bansi and Chedza are coming calling in mid January, 2015.

Cyclone CEMPAKA To Form Off Indonesia.Cyclone NUTE Forming In South Pacific. Depression Heading To Indian East Coast.

Update: December 23, 2014

The oceans are getting restive again, eager to restore the balance (That is why storms form; to restore atmospheric balance). Tropical Cyclone Cempaka is likely to form on December 26, 2014. The South Pacific will throw up a storm. Cyclone Nute is forming right now, north of Vanuatu Island. And a depression will form near the Indian Andaman Islands and move to the Indian east coast.

Let us start with Cyclone Nute. The storm is a low pressure now and lay at 14.1 Degrees South and 159.9 Degrees West with winds of 35 kph. It presently lies about 1000 kms east of American Samoa Island. It is already intensifying and is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours and move in a SW direction. The only inhabited islands to be affected are French Polynesia and Cook Island.

By the way, the same area in the South Pacific is going to spew another storm (Cyclone Odile) in another 2-3 days. This storm will hit the American Samoa Islands.

Now for cyclone Cempaka. It will be born south of the area where the short-lived Bakung was born; Off the coast of Java. It lies as an "invest" (An area of disturbances where a meteorologist thinks a storm will develop) at 9.7 degrees South, and 100.4 degrees East. Come December 26, 2014 and it may develop into cyclone Cempaka. Now this storm is going to go straight into the Indian Ocean. No inhabited islands are around so only the sipping lanes will be affected. The storm will dissipate on December 29.

Deep Depression In Bay Of Bengal

And now the rain-maker depression which is going to drench the Indian east coast. The storm will form near the Central Andaman Islands and head west on December 24, 2014, that is tomorrow. It will reach Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu on December 28, 2014. When it nears the land masses it will swerve away and move along the Indian coast in the Bay of Bengal in the next 2-3 days. So rains are expected along the entire Indian east coast. That includes the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal. It is going to bring rains even to Bangladesh. So expect rains in all these areas by the end of the month (And year). Only the coastal areas will receive the rains.

There is a possibility that this depression might reach cyclone status when it coasts pass Tamil Nadu.

Another Typhoon In Philippines?

There is good chance that another typhoon is heading Philippines' way. A storm is brewing in the Pacific, a few hundred kilometres east of Philippines now. It will move west and is likely to make landfall in southern part of the country on December 27' 2014. We feel it might not reach tropical cyclone strength and will remain a deep depression. Lots of rains and very windy in Mindanao on December 27-28. Or will turn into typhoon Jangmi?