Cyclone Joalane To Pass 250 Kilometers East of Rodrigues Thursday Night

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0000 HRS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE JOALANE IN SW INDIAN OCEAN

The latest track forecast for the powerful tropical cyclone Joalane in the South West Indian Ocean shows it swinging further east of Rodrigues Island of Mauritius.

The eye of the storm will pass the closest to Rodrigues Island Thursday night (April 9, 2015) about 250 kilometers east of the island. Under the influence Rodrigues Island will face winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph. And this is a very conservative estimate.

The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow evening Joalane will have sustained wind speeds of 120 knots (223 kph), gusts up to 145 knots (270 kph). Perhaps a Category 4 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Since the cyclone will pass about 800 kilometers from Mauritius there will no substantial influence on the island. But Rodrigues being nearer will face 75+ kph winds and heavy rainfall on Thursday.

The JTWC says other forecast models agree on the track forecast for cyclone Joalane. There is however some disagreement on the intensity of the storm. It is certain that Joalane is a powerful cyclone that is going to further intensify in the coming 30 hours.

Even now the sustained wind speeds in the storm are 130 kph. Presently it lies about 825 kilometers north-east of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST (JTWC) FOR CYCLONE JOALANE ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY

MASCAREIGNES CYCLONE TO BE NAMED "JOALANE"

UPDATE: APRIL 7, 2015

 Cyclone Joalane is going to continuously intensify and turn into a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. Presently according to conservative estimates it is throwing out winds of 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It lies about 825 kms north-east of Mauritius. Even at this distance, 30 kph winds are lashing Mauritius now. It will pass closest to Mauritius on April 10 (Friday) night (Local Time). The eye of the cyclone will be about 750 kms east of the island then.

 Cyclone 21S in the southern Indian Ocean has been named cyclone Ikola. So the expected cyclone in the Mascareignes will be named cyclone JOALANE.

Ikola will have no impact on Mascareignes whatsoever as we have mentioned earlier. Ikola has intensified earlier so it looks bigger. But make no mistake Joalane is the storm to watch out for. Ikola will peter out in 48 hours. Joalane is expected to turn into something nasty.

 JTWC PREDICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WILL HIT RODRIGUES WITH 180 KPH WINDS The JTWC has declared that Storm 91S is now tropical cyclone 22S. It for s intensifying all the time. Present sustained winds are 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph.

 The cyclone is not likely to hit Mauritius directly but Rodrigues is in for it on April 11, 2015. 22S being a slow moving storm, the rough weather in the Mascareignes will continue for a week. Though Mauritius will not be directly hit such a large storm even 500 kms away will stir up things. The JTWC predicts 22S will peak on April 10 with sustained winds of 180 kph, gusts up to 230 kph. A big storm.

Future cyclone Joalane is intensifying. It will intensify continuously for the next 72 hours into a Cat 3 hurricane. The GFS expects Joalane to stay about 500 kms away from Mauritius at all times. It predicts a direct hit on Rodrigues on April 9-10. The European model predicts a path closer to Mauritius but one expects it will agree with the GFS forecast eventually. We will bring the latest updates.

ECMWF DIFFERS ON CYCLONE JOALANE TRACK WITH GFS There is some confusion as to the exact track of cyclone Joalane. The two major forecast models are saying slightly different things. The GFS as we mentioned earlier says the cyclone will keep its distance from Mauritius at all times. 500 kms at least. In contrast the latest forecast issued by the ECMWF at 0000 hours GMT today predicts the periphery of cyclone Joalane will pass through Mauritius on April 11-13, 2015. We have found that generally the GFS predictions prevail. Anyway we will keep you informed. The storm lies about 780 kms north-east of Mauritius now. It will not move eastwards anymore, but stay nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. After which it will intensify into a powerful cyclone and move south.

SEE CYCLONE JOALANE LIVE

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR CYCLONE JOALANE

Latest satellite image of SW Indian Ocean taken at 0530 hours GMT today. 

South West Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone JOALANE To Form April 8, 2015

A very powerful tropical cyclone is likely to form north of Mauritius on April 8, 2015. It is presently a low pressure area 91S.

91S presently lies about 980 kilometers north east of Mauritius. Sustained winds are already 60 kph. We can say 91S is already a depression, just a step short of a cyclone.

In the next two days it will move west in the South Western Indian Ocean. By April 7, 2015, it will be about 630 kms NNE of Mauritius. After which it will intensify into a tropical cyclone by next day, Wednesday. The storm will then start moving south.

By April 9, 2015, Thursday, it will have turned into a powerful cyclone with sustained winds of 140 kph. It will be just 400 kms NNE of Mauritius on Thursday.

There is a chance that the cyclone (Ikola?) may intensify even more. We are looking at the possibility of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Present forecast say the cyclone will move between Rodrigues island and Mauritius. But even then Mauritius will face very bad weather. The situation will be made worse by the fact that cyclone Ikola will be a slow moving cyclone.

SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE

WEATHER FORECAST MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONE IKOLA (?) MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON APRIL 12, 2015

FORECAST MAP ON APRIL 9, 2015