Typhoon Noul (Dodong) Update: Will Hit Santa Ana In Luzon Sunday Night

Update: 1230 Hours GMT, May 9, 2015

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is only going to make a brief landfall at Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, the northern most tip of Luzon, Philippines on Sunday late evening (Local Time).

Presently the storm is whipping 150 kph winds gusts up to 180 kph. It is about 400 kilometers from Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines to where it is headed.

At landfall it will weaken a little. Winds will drop to 110 kph.

The adjoining islands of Palau, Batan and Babuyan will bear the brunt of the storm.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in these places. Cagayan Valley will see floods and there is extreme danger of landslides as torrential rains will fall there.

Taiwan is safe from typhoon Noul. It will pass a few hundred kilometers from the eastern coast of the country. Not much effect.

1130 GMT, MAY 9, 2015. LATEST IMAGE OF TYPHOON NOUL

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL DODONG BY JTWC ISSUED TODAY

Typhoon Noul To Hit Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines Sunday (May10, 2015) Afternoon

Ground Zero is going to be Cagayan Valley, Luzon, northern Philippines. That is where typhoon Noul (Dodong) is going to enter the country. When? May 10, 2015. Sunday afternoon, Philippines Time. Wind speed at impact? 120 kph, gusts up to 150 kph.

But the country will get a taste of the typhoon tomorrow (Saturday) itself as the periphery of the storm will lash Catanduanes Island. Luckily for the island it will not be a direct impact so the full fury of the storm will not be felt. But expects strong winds and heavy showers.

Eastern coast of Luzon near the Cagayan Valley will not be so lucky as it will face the brunt of this tropical cyclone. Very heavy rains are expected in the northern half of Luzon. Manila will escape relatively unscathed as the path of the storm has shifted slightly north.

Typhoon Noul will exit from Philippines on Monday evening from the northern tip of Luzon. The many islands there will get a thorough drenching.

By Monday night the southern tip of Taiwan will get a good wind lashing after which the storm will swing away north-eastward. So only southern Taiwan will be partially affected. Otherwise Taiwan is safe from Noul. Noul is not going to affect mainland Japan.

THIS IS OUR TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG)

THE JTWC DIFFERS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center differs slightly from what we have predicted.

Firstly, it predicts a path that almost kisses the northern tip of Luzon as the point of impact

Secondly, it foresees winds of a massive 220 kph, gusts up to 270 kph when typhoon Noul makes landfall into Luzon.

Two Typhoons, Noul (Dodong) And Dolphin (Egay) In Western Pacific

TYPHOON DOLPHIN UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin (Egay) is going to turn into a very powerful storm in a few days. Guam is going to be affected. Latest forecasts say Philippines will be spared as Dolphin will swing away north before landfall. This is expected to happen on May 16, 2015. Anything can happen in five days. Philippines should keep its fingers crossed.

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 FLASH: The JTWC in its latest track and intensity forecast says Typhoon Noul is likely to pass northern tip of Luzon on May 10 with speeds of 120 knots. There are still 5 days to go and the path of Noul is slowly curving towards Philippines. And with each successive forecast the intensity of typhoon Noul is increasing. Bad news for the country.
Update - May 5, 2015

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THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC ON MAY 9, 2015. TYPHOON NOUL IS LEAVING PHILIPPINES WATERS WHILE TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS GROWING STRONGER

The Western Pacific Ocean is in overdrive. Even as tropical storm Noul is strengthening into a typhoon and moving towards Philippines, another typhoon Dolphin is brewing in the same waters.

Let us talk about Noul first. The storm is about 100 miles east of Yap Island and moving WNW. It is strengthening all the time. Our very conservative estimates say the sustained winds in the storm are 75 kph. In the next four days it will ponderously move in the same (WNW) direction. By May 10 it will be a few hundred kilometers away from the Luzon coast. By then it will have intensified into a 140 kph storm.

According to the latest forecasts by the JTWC issued at 0900 hours GMT today the typhoon will be throwing out sustained winds of 115 knots by May 9. A super typhoon has winds of 130 knots. Inching close.

Our prediction is typhoon Noul will not make landfall into Luzon, Philippines but veer away sharply and move north on May 10-11. Even then the flail-clouds of the powerful storm will bring heavy rains to northern Philippines on these days.

Predicting even further, we believe typhoon will not hit Taiwan nor the Japanese mainland. We expect the storm will swing north-east and miss Japan. But this we cannot say with surety at this stage.

Now coming to typhoon Dolphin. It is presently an innocuous low pressure area bobbing in the Pacific Ocean. On May 7, 2015, it will start intensifying and turn into typhoon Dolphin. Dolphin will be even more powerful than Noul. But fortunately for Philippines it is expected to swing northwards on May 10 and miss hitting the country.

Our predictions at this stage are based on what reliable global forecast models say. Things can change as tropical cyclones are inherently fickle by nature. We shall keep you informed with latest updates and monitor any changes in the path of the two typhoons.