Typhoon NIDA Threatens Philippines, China

JULY 25, 2016

After super typhoon NEPARTAK, a weak LUPIT, and the presently brewing tropical cyclone MIRINAE which threatens Hainan and northern Vietnam yet another tropical cyclone is imminent in western Pacific Ocean. NIDA  is likely to affect Luzon in Philippines and mainland China in the coming days.

NIDA  will be born on July 30 as a low pressure area a few hundred kilometres east of central Philippines. It will intensify into a deep depression by the time it moves through Luzon on July 31, 2016. It being at best a deep depression or a weak tropical storm when it passes Philippines, the country will face weak winds of about 60-70 km/h at most. But there will be very heavy precipitation in Luzon.

It will rapidly intensify into a powerful typhoon as it moves through the South China Sea and hit China at Hong Kong or Macau in Guangdong province on August 2-3, 2016.

The European forecast model ECMWF estimates the storm will have a central minimum pressure of 978 hPa. Quite a powerful typhoon. Winds of over 120-130 km/h expected.

It being early days as the storm is yet to be spawned, we will give real time updates as to track and intensity.

UPDATE: JULY 26, 2016

Later data from forecast models say typhoon NIDA may hit China at Zhanjiang in southern Guangdong province that is at an area much further south from Hong Kong. Some models are suggesting a hit on Taiwan. The situation is confusing at present. We shall continue giving you updates. Keep in touch.

UPDATE: JULY 27, 2016

PHILIPPINES STARES AT A TYPHOON (NIDA)

Contrary to earlier forecasts, typhoon NIDA is going to intensify into a tropical cyclone and not a mere depression by the time it reaches Luzon, Philippines, on July 31.

Please keep in touch for latest updates.

JULY 28, 2016

Future typhoon NIDA has been born. It is called 96W. It lies about 350-400 east of Mindanao, Philippines. Central pressure is 1007 Mb. See figure below. In the next 2-3 days it will intensify and move in a NW direction and pass through Luzon on July 31. Latest forecasts say it will hit the Chinese coast at Hong Kong-Macau on August 2-3.

This latest satellite image shows MIRINAE dissipating after landfall into Vietnam and NIDA growing up east of Philippines.

Two Typhoons, Noul (Dodong) And Dolphin (Egay) In Western Pacific

TYPHOON DOLPHIN UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin (Egay) is going to turn into a very powerful storm in a few days. Guam is going to be affected. Latest forecasts say Philippines will be spared as Dolphin will swing away north before landfall. This is expected to happen on May 16, 2015. Anything can happen in five days. Philippines should keep its fingers crossed.

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 FLASH: The JTWC in its latest track and intensity forecast says Typhoon Noul is likely to pass northern tip of Luzon on May 10 with speeds of 120 knots. There are still 5 days to go and the path of Noul is slowly curving towards Philippines. And with each successive forecast the intensity of typhoon Noul is increasing. Bad news for the country.
Update - May 5, 2015

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THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC ON MAY 9, 2015. TYPHOON NOUL IS LEAVING PHILIPPINES WATERS WHILE TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS GROWING STRONGER

The Western Pacific Ocean is in overdrive. Even as tropical storm Noul is strengthening into a typhoon and moving towards Philippines, another typhoon Dolphin is brewing in the same waters.

Let us talk about Noul first. The storm is about 100 miles east of Yap Island and moving WNW. It is strengthening all the time. Our very conservative estimates say the sustained winds in the storm are 75 kph. In the next four days it will ponderously move in the same (WNW) direction. By May 10 it will be a few hundred kilometers away from the Luzon coast. By then it will have intensified into a 140 kph storm.

According to the latest forecasts by the JTWC issued at 0900 hours GMT today the typhoon will be throwing out sustained winds of 115 knots by May 9. A super typhoon has winds of 130 knots. Inching close.

Our prediction is typhoon Noul will not make landfall into Luzon, Philippines but veer away sharply and move north on May 10-11. Even then the flail-clouds of the powerful storm will bring heavy rains to northern Philippines on these days.

Predicting even further, we believe typhoon will not hit Taiwan nor the Japanese mainland. We expect the storm will swing north-east and miss Japan. But this we cannot say with surety at this stage.

Now coming to typhoon Dolphin. It is presently an innocuous low pressure area bobbing in the Pacific Ocean. On May 7, 2015, it will start intensifying and turn into typhoon Dolphin. Dolphin will be even more powerful than Noul. But fortunately for Philippines it is expected to swing northwards on May 10 and miss hitting the country.

Our predictions at this stage are based on what reliable global forecast models say. Things can change as tropical cyclones are inherently fickle by nature. We shall keep you informed with latest updates and monitor any changes in the path of the two typhoons.

Western Pacific Typhoon NOUL (2015) Imminent: Not To Affect Philippines

A typhoon is on the horizon in the Western Pacific in May 2015. Forecasts hint at the possibility of Typhoon Noul forming around May 8, 2015. These forecasts also say (At the present, at least) that the forthcoming storm will not hit Philippines but swing away towards Japan.

But at this juncture we cannot say this with emphasis. it is still a week before Typhoon Noul forms. Anything can happen after that. We can only hope the typhoon faithfully stick to the forecasts and not hit Philippines.

The picture will become clearer in the coming days. One thing is certain. A tropical storm is brewing in the West Pacific.

Typhoon MAYSAK A Super Typhoon Now, But Will Weaken By Phllippines Landfall

TYPHOON MAYSAK AT 0630 HRS GMT, MARCH 31, 2015

Typhoon Maysak is turning into a super typhoon. The JTWC estimates that by the time it passes by Yap Island in the next 24 hours it will have metamorphosed into a howling entity with winds of 260+ kph. Gusts of an awesome 300 kph.

But though looking at a satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean one fears the most for Philippines, as the storm is moving west, most forecast models say Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it reaches northern Philippines in Bikol-Calabarzon-Luzon areas on April 4-5, 2015.

By April 2nd it will have started weakening.  By 3rd April the wind speeds will have dropped to 120 kph. By April 4 it will be a 100 kph storm. By Saturday, April 5 when Maysak makes landfall into Bikol and North Visayas it will be a mere deep depression.

It is expected to pass through central Philippines. Through the Visayas and bring torrential rainfall in the region. But there is little chance of strong winds the area. Deep depressions have maximum winds of 50-65 kph.

So in conclusion, we can say Philippines can rest easy. We shall continuously monitor the situation and give you latest significant updates.

See Typhoon MAYSAK LIVE

READ MORE ON TYPHOON MAYSAK

Tropical Storm BAVI Set To Hit Guam Late March 15, 2015

See Tropical Storm BAVI LIVE

Tropical Storm Bavi is deep in the Western Pacific Ocean. It is about 80 nautical miles south of Ujelang, an uninhabited island of the Marshall islands. Presently it has winds of 60 kph.

Bavi will never be a big storm. But it is significant because in the next two days it is going to move and hit the island of Guam. The island, as we all know, has a significant US military base.

Tropical Storm Bavi is going to hit Guam on the evening of March 15, 2015 (Local Time) with winds of 80 kph.

By the time the storm reaches Philippines on March 19, 2015, it will have weakened considerably to a mere depression. Or even less. Bavi has dissipated almost completely.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM BAVI. IT IS GOING TO HIT GUAM ONMARCH 15, 2015