Tropical Cyclone OLWYN To Hit Western Australian Coast At Carnarvon

See Tropical Cyclone OLWYN LIVE

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015, 0630 GMT

STORM ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SHARK BAY

It is a significant storm, throwing winds of 100 kph and it is presently at Shark Bay.  After that it will make landfall, half in the ocean, half on land and move along the West Australian coast. It is going to weaken and move on to Perth in 24 hours as a low pressure area.

Within the next 12 hours it will cease to be a tropical storm. Just a low pressure area. But expect strong winds and downpours along the coast from Carnarvon to Geraldton.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015: 0700 HOURS GMT

CYCLONE OLWYN HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN EXPECTED.

Just yesterday forecast models had predicted that tropical cyclone Olwyn would not be a big storm. Just a 80 kph storm. But Olwyn has belied expectations.

It has already turned into a 90 kph storm. A Category 2 cyclone. The JTWC expects it to graduate to a Category 3 with speeds of 70 knots soon.

Presently it lies 240 kilometers north of Exmouth. 230 kilometers north-north-west of Onslow in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia.

It will move along the coast but not make landfall. On March 13 (March 14 in Australia) it will move inland at Shark Bay near the town of Carnarvon.

It will weaken on landfall. and move south and bring some rains to Perth. It will enter the Great Australian Bight on March 15, 2015.

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE OLWYN

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 1230 HOURS GMT

Cyclone Olwyn is a weak strom compared to the super cyclone Pam rushing into Vanuatu. Or compared to cyclone Nathan which is going to lash Queensland coast with 100 kph winds.

The best that Olwyn will do is rustle up winds of 80 kph. It is going to make landfall at Onslow in Western Australia on the night of March 12, that is Friday night.

After that it is going to move south close along the Australian coast and bring windy weather and rains to Perth on March 14, 2015. After that it will move into land and dissipate.

But one could expect winds and rains along the West Australian coast  extending from Port Hedland to Perth. The town affected will be Onslow, Carnarvon, Geraldton and finally Perth.

Presently cyclone Olwyn lies about 575 kilometers north of Onslow. About 540 kilometers north-west of Port Hedland. Its currently throwing up winds of 60 kph. The central minimum pressure is 1002 Mb. More of a deep depression than a tropical storm.

The JTWC believes cyclone 19S (Olwyn) will move inland after hitting Onslow and will not affect Perth. So the JTWC prediction differs from the prediction by the GFS Forecast Model.

We think the GFS Model forecast will prevail.

THE US NAVY'S JTWC BELIEVES CYCLONE OLWYN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER HITTING ONSLOW IN WESTERN AUTRALIA. THE GFS PREDICTS OLWYN WILL REACH PERTH ON MARCH 14, 2015

A Vigorous Southern Indian Ocean May Throw Out A Couple Of Big Cyclones In Next 15 Days: Lam Coming To Australia

Update: December 30, 2014

Mother Earth May be hurtling blizzards and Arctic blasts in North Asia, Europe and North America but when it comes to the tropics, the Southern Indian Ocean reigns supreme. This active ocean already has a category 3 hurricane 'Kate' hurtling down south. In the next fifteen days it may engender two more tropical cyclones. Especially tropical cyclone 'Lam' which is expected to hit the western coast of Australia in early January, 2015.

Even as Kate will be in her death throes on January 2, 2015, another storm will come into being in the Mozambique Channel. This storm already exists as a low hugging the Afrian coast. In the next two days it will start intensifying and move around southern Madagascar. This storm may remain a deep depression, possibly a borderline cyclone.  Though this will not move north towards the Mascareignes, another depression (A potential cyclone) will come visiting the area on January 7, 2015. This depression now lies as a 'low' some hundred kilometers SW of Diego Garcia presently.

What is more interesting is the possibility of a big bad cyclone hitting western Australia in early January. Cyclone Lam will form on January 6, 2015 off the coast of North-West Australia between Broome and Karratha. Lam is going to be a big storm. Central pressure of 973 Mb. Exmouth will be badly hit with winds of 150 kph. The storm will not make landfall but move along the west coast of the country. Geraldton and Perth will too be affected.

That is not all. On January 12 a low pressure area will form north of Mauritius and will then start intensifying rapidly. Mauritius and La Reunion can expect a big cyclone on January 15-16.