AUGUST 5, 2016, 0700 IST
Our forecast was accurate. We had predicted yesterday, "Isolated heavy rains in parts of north Gujarat (Deesa, Radhanpur area) , Kutch (Naliya, Jakhav area), Saurashtra (Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot) by August 6 evening." The rain estimator satellite image above says it all.
The cyclonic circulation over Kutch-Sindh seems to be weakening. But it will bring heavy rains to coastal Sindh in next 48 hours.
The Bay of Bengal low pressure area lies over Odisha presently. It will move onto Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and reach Delhi in the coming 5-6 days.
But interestingly, the American GFS model says the rain system will not go to Rajasthan-Delhi, but ome over to Gujarat, Sindh. If this happens, these states are in for a deluge in the next 3 days.
But other reliable forecast models still insist the system will go to Rajasthan. Another error by the GFS model? Or no?
Heavy rain in Saurashtra today. Deluge will continue in Jamnagar till evening. Friday evening and night will see flooding rains in Dhrol, Morbi belt.
Isolated heavy rain likely in Sindh, including Karachi, till Saturday evening.
Very heavy rains in southern Odisha, Chattisgarh (Bhilai area) in next 36 hours.
Very heavy rains in western Madhya Pradesh (Chindwara, Indore), Rajasthan (Udaipur area) on Saturday, August 6-7.
Flooding rains in Rajasthan (around Jaipur) starting August 8. The rains will spread to entire northern Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi by August 11.
The rain radar at 0430 hours IST shows it is raining in parts of Saurashtra, Kutch, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh. Rains are approaching Odisha from the Bay of Bengal.
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