Cyclone ADJALI Has Formed As We Had Predicted

The track of cyclone Adjali according to the JTWC

Cyclone Adjali has been born as we had foretold a few days ago. It is going to intensify even more in the coming two days to 110 Kph winds, gusting up to 150 Kph. Nothing in the class of Nuri and Vongfong, but a nasty storm nevertheless.

The JTWC in its latest bulletin says it going to move south in the next two days and grow big.  But by Wednesday the southern latitude winds will start affecting it and the storm will start weakening. It will then start moving in a SW direction and dissipate as a cyclone by late Monday (November 21, 2014).

But the remnants of the system will drift to Mauritius and La Reunion islands and bring it some rains on November 23, 2014. There is little likelihood that Adjali will hit Mauritius as a full bodied cyclone. It is going to break up before that.

As for the track of the cyclone we support the path predicted by JTWC (See map above). The track according to Meteo France shows the cyclone curving more almost in a westerly direction. But we think the JTWC track will be proved right.

Just for the record, Cyclone Adjali is a Dvorak Intensity T-4.5 storm, that is a Category 1-2 hurricane.

What should worry the folks in Mauritius is that another cyclone will form soon after Adjali disintegrates. At least that is, as we earlier said, is what the European Forecast Model says. The new system is likely to form around November 23 many hundred Kms away from where Adjali was spawned.

We will keep a close watch. It is to be seen if other computer models support the birth of Cyclone Bansi.

UPDATE: November 18, 2014. No Bansi Soon

It is unlikely that Cyclone Bansi will form soon. The ECMWF Model hints at a low pressure system moving towards the African coast around November 26, 2014. But just that. A low. The GFS too says a low will move eastwards. But a big storm? No.

Update: November 19, 2014. Where will Adjali end?

Adjali will burn itself out and end up as a low pressure that will pass by north of Mauritius on November 23, 2014. It will bring some rains and 25-30 Kph winds to the island.

The track of cyclone Adjali according to Meteo France

Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone ADJALI To Form November 15, 2014 Near Diego Garcia

It is the southern hemisphere which is going to throw up storms now. The southern Indian ocean will start off with cyclone ADJALI. It will form near the Diego Garcia Islands and intensify and travel in a SSW direction. By the time it passes the Rodrigues island of Mauritius it will start weakening. But Mauritius will have winds and rains on November 22, 2014.

Adjali will be no Nuri. But it will be a significant tropical storm on November 17-18 throwing up winds of 100+ Kph. The cluster of islands near Madagascar (Including Mauritius) are lucky that the storm will weaken by the time it reaches them.

Most affected will be Rodrigues Islands. Adjali is going move past it on November 21, Gale and heavy rains are expected on that tourist destination. If you are thinking of a Mauritius vacation around November 21-23, my advice is, postpone it.

Latest updates indicate there are two "Invest" in the southern Indian ocean now. These are low pressure area which meteorologists watch closely and think may turn into a bigger storm.

94S:This is the one we feel will turn into cyclone Adjali.

95S: This has formed further SW near Mauritius.

We shall keenly watch developments and keep you in formed.

The two "Invests" in the southern Indian ocean today

Cyclone Adjali as seen on November 19-20

Invest 94S: Future storm ADJALI as seen on November 14, 2014