MAY 19, 2017, FRIDAY
We had predicted that the Madden Julian Oscillation currently passing by the Indian Ocean may throw out a tropical storm or two in the coming days. That seems to be happening. But when and where? That seems hazy at present.
The European forecast agency believes a low pressure system will develop in southern Arabian Sea on May 24. This will intensify into a tropical cyclone and may hit central Oman near Duqm on May 28. But this is not yet supported by other global models.
The American agency NCEP thinks a slow moving low pressure system will develop by May 21 in the Bay of Bengal near Andaman Islands. Other models suggest the expected system will form later around May 28. Where it goes is hard to say now.
The result of these storm antics? The monsoon will arrive in Kerala only after the Arabian Sea cyclone reaches Oman. Though the slow moving Bay of Bengal storm may push the rainy season into India earlier.
Let us see what does happen. The window of opportunity for tropical cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea, BOB closes by May end. The Madden Julian Oscillation will then pass over into the west Pacific region.
The names of the two tropical cyclones will be MORA, and OCKHI.
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