MAY 20, 2017, SATURDAY
Storm or no storm? That is the question. The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal has the entire international forecasting community confused.
Let us see first what the leading numerical weather forecasting models are saying what is going to happen in the next ten or so days.
The Canadian CMC model talks of a low pressure system moving past Sri Lanka eastward soon then re-curving back and hitting northern Tamil Nadu-southern Andhra Pradesh coast. It then crosses peninsular India, emerges in the Arabian Sea and intensifies into a tropical cyclone.
The American GFS predicts a low pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal on May 22. This may enter Andhra after a few days and end up near Mumbai/South Gujarat on May 29. Ot it may move past Odisha coast and hit West Bengal/Bangladesh by the month end.
Confusing. Confusing.
The European model ECMWF says no Bay of Bengal storm. An Arabian Sea system may form on May 25-26. Where it goes? Perhaps Oman. Perhaps Yemen.
The Indian Meteorological Department is bullish on a Bay of Bengal low pressure system developing on May 22-23.
The ensemble forecast of the GFS is supporting a Bay of Bengal depression/cyclone hitting Andhra Pradesh near Visakhapatnam. Hence we can safely say there is a good possibility of this happening. The American agency Climate Prediction Center too says the same thing.
Just look at the CMC and GFS forecasts below. It explains the prevailing confusion.
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