The Indian monsoons will remain active in central, northern and eastern India till August 20, 2015. Western and northwest India will remain mainly dry.
This has been a mainly disappointing rainy season for the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Barring the flooding periods in June (the Arabian Sea depression) and July these states have seen long dry periods.
The present forecasts by leading computer models predict the monsoon will keep drenching the states of West Bengal, North Eastern States, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and parts of Uttar Pradesh. In other the usual suspects. There might be localised heavy downpours but there are no huge area drenching lows or depression in sight in the near future.
A low pressure area is likely to form in a day or two near the Odisha coast but it is going to be a weak fellow. Not strong enough to reach western or northwestern India.
But computer models might go wrong. Why do we say that?
We have discerned a trend that the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean take turns in becoming active. When one is throwing out a typhoon or a big rainmaker system the other one goes relatively inactive.
Presently it is the turn of the Pacific Ocean. The big monster Soudelor has smashed Taiwan and is hitting China which cowers in expectations of flood in north eastern part of the country. The other guy in the Pacific, Molave, is turning out to be a sissy. A small tropical storm which will swirl away northeast away from Japan.
So in a few days time, it will be the turn of the Indian Ocean to become vigourous again. That means monsoons getting strong again in South Asia. This may happen around August 20, 2015.
We hope it happens. The dire forecasts of a drought by the IMD has left us depressed and shaken.
EPILOGUE
Our hearts go out to the folks in Oman and UAE. The temperature is touching 46 degrees centigrade! We have experienced this kind of heat and we know how it feels. One prays for a post monsoon cyclone in the Arabian Sea this year.
UPDATE AUGUST 9, 2015
Predictions have changed. Bad news for Indian monsoon. The Pacific Ocean is not going to stay satisfied with typhoons Soudelor and Molave. Within a week two more typhoons (Goni and Atsani) are going to be spawned in the area. One of them is most probably going to hit Philippines.
Anyway. Goni and Atsani means the Pacific Ocean is going to remain in overdrive and the Indian Ocean will remain in a dormant stage. So a weak monsoon spell will continue till the end of August 2015.
EPILOGUE
Our hearts go out to the folks in Oman and UAE. The temperature is touching 46 degrees centigrade! We have experienced this kind of heat and we know how it feels. One prays for a post monsoon cyclone in the Arabian Sea this year.
UPDATE AUGUST 9, 2015
Predictions have changed. Bad news for Indian monsoon. The Pacific Ocean is not going to stay satisfied with typhoons Soudelor and Molave. Within a week two more typhoons (Goni and Atsani) are going to be spawned in the area. One of them is most probably going to hit Philippines.
Anyway. Goni and Atsani means the Pacific Ocean is going to remain in overdrive and the Indian Ocean will remain in a dormant stage. So a weak monsoon spell will continue till the end of August 2015.
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| AUGUST 8, 2015 1000 HOURS GMT SATELLITE IMAGE SOUTH ASIA |
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