Satellite image of the Arabian Sea at 0300 hrs GMT, June 9, 2014
ARABIAN SEA UPDATE: JUNE 9, 0330 AM GMT
Cyclone Nanauk is expected to form today off the Goa coast. The system even now has winds gusting up to 62 Kph.
It will intensify into a tropical storm Nanauk (If IMD gives it the name) and move north towards Gujarat. On Thursday, June 12, 2014 it will disintegrate.
Present forecasts say it will have no or little impact on Oman. Though the NAVGEM says the system will reach Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014 bringing strong winds and rain.
The system is now located at 14 degrees North and 68 degrees East.
The system is now located at 14 degrees North and 68 degrees East.
See The Cyclone LIVE
The NAVGEM forecast model says the system will reach north Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014
June 10, 2014.Tuesday. The system at its height
The storm is expected to be a weak storm. My guess is that IMD will term it a deep depression and not name it tropical cyclone Nanauk. Though forecasts say it will throw up winds (sustained winds) well in excess of 62 Kph.
After forming near the Goa coast it will intensify and move in a NNW direction. On June 12, 2014 it will burnout a few hundred kms from the Gujarat coast.
JTWC says the possibility of the system turning into a "significant tropical storm" is medium. In other words the chance is 50-50.
This is what the IMD says in its 0530 AM (IST) bulletin....
The east-west shear zone along latitude 12.0°N with embedded cyclonic circulation over eastcentral & neighbourhood extending upto mid-tropospheric level persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours and intensify thereafter
The Mid-day Bulletin, June 9, 2014......
A low pressure area has formed over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. It would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
IMD WAKES UP
This is what the IMD says in its 0530 AM (IST) bulletin....
The east-west shear zone along latitude 12.0°N with embedded cyclonic circulation over eastcentral & neighbourhood extending upto mid-tropospheric level persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours and intensify thereafter
The Mid-day Bulletin, June 9, 2014......
A low pressure area has formed over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian sea. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. It would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
No comments:
Post a Comment