LATEST! Balochistan To Bear The Brunt Of Keila's Fury

Latest forecast for the tropical storm in the Arabian Sea is that it is going to touch the Saurashtra coast (periphery of Keila) at Diu and Veravel Friday (June 10, 2011) morning. It will not enter Saurashtra but it will move along the coast; its periphery touching the Saurashtra coast.  It will move similarly into Pakistani waters. Karachi will feel only the edges of Keila. The storm will make landfall (Monday June 13 morning) in Baluchistan province, which will feel the full fury of Keila. Kolwa, Bela, Pasni, and Turbat towns in Baluchistan are likely to be most affected


KEILA FORECAST UPDATES

• The present low pressure area in the Arabian Sea will start intensifying and assume an avatar of a full fledged cyclone Thursday (June 9, 2011) afternoon with a well marked 'eye' when it touches Diu in the Saurashtra (India) coast.

• The Met departments in India and Pakistan will start mentioning a " deep depression" by Thursday (June 9, 2011) morning. A cyclone warning will follow and the storm will be christened "Keila".

• Keila will start gaining strength soaking the humidity from the Arabian Sea and move northwards. Its periphery will touch Diu Friday (June 10, 2011). morning.

• It will then change direction heading north westerly moving along the Saurashtra coast.

• Karachi will see the approach of Keila Saturday (June 11, 2011) afternoon. Keila will make landfall (Sunday evening, June 12, 2011) in Balochistan province of Pakistan, which will bear the brunt of the tropical cyclone.

• Diu, Veraval, Porbandar, Kandla, Mandvi in Saurashtra (India) will witness winds of 80 Kmph. Karachi will see similar winds. Balochistan will be the windiest. 120+ Kmph.

• Coastal areas of Saurashtra Kutch and Sind will receive lots of rain. Balochistan will suffer downpours. Floods area distinct possibility.

PREDICTED PATH OF KEILA

 Friday (June 10, 2011) morning. Keila nudges Saurashtra coast

 Saturday (June 11, 2011). Moving past Kutch

 Sunday evening. Touches Pakistan coast.

Monday (June 13, 2011) morning. Keila enters Balochistan.

IN THE MEANTIME.......

The Naval Oceanography Operations Command (NOOC) of the US Navy says in its latest report

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  70.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUBAI, INDIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.