Arabian Sea Storm, June, 2014: Will It Happen? Or Not?

Nanauk According to NAVGEM: The model predicts an even bigger storm. The map is NAVGEM forecast map: 500mb Heights/Relative Vorticity: A good indicator of a bad storm.

The much awaited tropical cyclone, Nanauk. Will it happen in the next few days? Or nothing will happen. No cyclone. Just a miserable little low pressure area (It brings a lot of rainfall).

A doubting lady/gentleman just wrote to us anonymously. The gist of the message was: "You say the cyclone will form tomorrow. Then why is the IMD saying nothing? Not mentioning even the existing low pressure area in south Arabian Sea. You are bluffing."

That is how matters stand now.

On the one side are the naysayers. No cyclone. It includes formidable folks like the IMD, JTWC, BBC (Met office). They have said nothing about any possible storm.

On the other side are yours truly, and also a whole legion who believe that a cyclone is coming. And two reliable weather forecast models: The GFS and US Navy's NAVGEM.

Yes, even the NAVGEM model agrees with the GFS prediction about the formation, path and final destination. Only that the NAVGEM says it is going to be even a nastier storm.

Nanauk According To NAVGEM: 10 m wind speed forecast map. If one goes by this the winds will be howling at 100 Kph (The dark color in the center) on June 12, 2014

Latest Predicted Path Of The Storm
See The Cyclone LIVE