The two seas which hurl storm systems into India and South Asia, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are going to spew two cyclonic circulations on September 23-24 in a burst of monsoon activity. The question is how durable and strong they are going to be?
Present forecasts present a mixed picture.
The Bay of Bengal system will weaken (the usual story this monsoon) and meander through coastal Andhra, Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and perhaps Madhya Pradesh. It will drench these areas as it passes them. But it will remain a mere cyclonic circulation, not a respectable low pressure area.
The Arabian Sea low will emerge from the waters off the Mumbai coast on September 23, 2016. It is is most likely it will hover over northern Maharashtra for a day or two, then go phut, fizz. There might be heavy rains in Mumbai on September 23-24, but that's it.
Other forecast models suggest the system will take a long walk in circles in northeastern Arabian Sea then weaken and potter off to central or southern Oman on September 29, 2016. The chances of it intensifying into a tropical cyclone is low at present.
Let us wait and see how things turn out.
1 comment:
Any chance of rain in sindh last of month
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