Frankly, We Are Worried.

That is worrying. No one has a clue. And no one is prepared.

The cyclone as seen on June 10, 2014. This is a wind speed map. The purple color means speed of over 50 knots.That is above 90 Kph. A big bad storm indeed.

We are worried. The reliable GFS forecast model says a tropical cyclone will form in two days time and which will hit central Oman on Wednesday, June 11, 2014. That is in four days.

And not a word from any met. departments. Not a word from major media broadcasts.

I saw the BBC World weather forecast today. Not even a hint of the low pressure area that has formed in the Arabian Sea, though the graphics on the screen behind the weather commentator showed a bright yellow. That is the low pressure area throwing down a deluge into the Arabian Sea presently.

I do not blame the BBC. They rely on the UKMO (UK Met Office). Their forecast model is not very reliable. What worries us is that many weather watchers in Oman have a touching blind faith in what the BBC says. So if BBC says nothing, then no cyclone; so goes the thinking.

But facts tell another story. The GFS model (Which meteorologists the world over say is accurate in 50%-90%  of its forecasts) predicts a storm will form on Monday. And it will hit Oman in four days from now. That is on Wednesday.

This will be an unusual storm. Quick to form, quick in intensifying and moving very fast. It will move from the Indian coast near Goa to Oman in two days flat.

That is worrying. No one has a clue. And no one is prepared.

Let us hope for the best.

We hope our predictions go wrong this time. That the later GFS models change from "Cyclone coming" to "No cyclone". If only for the sake of Oman.

This is a satellie image taken today June 7, 2014 at 1200 hrs GMT

Latest Predicted Path Of The Storm
See The Cyclone LIVE