The villain of Indian monsoon 2017, the much awaited Arabian Sea low pressure area will be born in the next 2-3 days, by June 5 in the central part of the sea.
It is this unborn system which is drawing rain-rich thunderstorms away from the west coast of India. This has delayed the Mumbai debut of the rainy season.
This system is taking huge clusters of thunderstorms for a ride in the Arabian Sea. By June 8 it may inch to few hundred kilometres from the Saurashtra coast but then it will abruptly move in the direction of northern Oman.
Last seen on June 11, it lies a little distance from the Oman coast.
Actually the situation is presently confusing with leading forecast models giving erratic predictions. Arabian Sea LPA yes today, no tomorrow. Bay of Bengal low pressure area yes today, no tomorrow, yes again day after tomorrow. Mumbai monsoon on June 8-9, then say maybe later.
No wonder no meteorologist is willing to open his/her mouth and say anything. There is a deafening silence in the Indian media about the monsoon. Simply because no one wants to stick the neck out.
We are trying our best to make sense of things. Please bear with us.
Interestingly both the European as well as American GFS now talk of a low pressure area forming off Mumbai. ECMWF says on June 11, GFS says June 14.
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